That same evening, Trump shared that the U.S. had carried out a “successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran.” Naturally, his statement left many buzzing with questions about what’s coming next in this tense geopolitical drama. After taking to Truth Social and speaking directly to Americans on Saturday night, Trump made it clear again: if Iran retaliates against the U.S., there will be consequences.

Trump warned:

Any retaliation by Iran against the United States of America will be met with force far greater than what was witnessed tonight.

Since then, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been buzzing with bets on what could unfold next. Meanwhile, even though President Trump publicly declared that U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site were “successful,” several independent and official sources report that the facility is still standing and mostly undamaged. One popular Polymarket bet, with $2.71 million in volume, poses the question: will the “Fordow nuclear facility [be] destroyed before July?”

As of 9 a.m. Eastern on Sunday, the odds sit at 68% that it’ll be gone by July. Another wager titled “Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?” puts the likelihood at an even 50% on Sunday morning. Meanwhile on Kalshi, there’s a 32% chance the U.S. and Iran will strike a nuclear deal by year’s end. Kalshi also pegs a 20% chance that the U.S. will officially recognize Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader sometime this year. Back on Polymarket, odds sit at 14% that the U.S. will invade Iran this year.

There’s an 11% chance American forces will be drawn directly into the conflict. The chances of another bombing run on the Fordow nuclear site come in at 20%. Fordow sits buried deep beneath a mountain—hundreds of meters down—making it an incredibly tough target, even for the U.S.’s heaviest bunker-buster bombs (GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator), which were deployed in Saturday night’s strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.

Polymarket traders are putting the odds of a U.S.–Iran nuclear deal at 36%, while giving a 30% chance that the Iranian regime collapses before the year wraps up. As tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to unfold, prediction markets offer a real-time pulse on public expectations and geopolitical risk. While the future remains uncertain, the bets being placed reveal a world closely watching every move. With diplomacy, conflict, and leadership shifts all in play, the coming weeks could prove pivotal on multiple fronts.

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