Key Points:
Bitcoin (BTC) showed lackluster performance on June 19, with analysts pointing out key dates for cryptocurrency volatility.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC/USD has been fluctuating within a narrow range after failing to hold the $105,000 support level.
Geopolitical uncertainty, a standstill in Federal Reserve policy, and the U.S. stock market being closed for the June holiday have all contributed to BTC's sideways price action.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, which chose to keep interest rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting, trading firm QCP Capital emphasized that officials are reluctant to take swift action.
"Officials reiterated their preference for a 'wait-and-see' approach, waiting for clearer signals on the inflation trajectory," the firm wrote in its latest announcement to Telegram channel subscribers.
Data from CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that the market remains optimistic about the possibility of a rate cut in September.
Probability of target rate for the Fed's September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
QCP Capital is now focusing on future deadlines in the ongoing U.S. trade war, viewing them as potential sources of volatility for cryptocurrencies and risk assets.
"Negotiations remain at a standstill, and leaked information has become repetitive. The market may now be less sensitive to gradual tariff headlines," the firm argued.
Key dates include July 14, when the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, and August 12, when the suspension of tariffs on China will expire.
"These upcoming dates could bring phase-down volatility to risk assets," QCP Capital added, noting that in the case of China, a "stable outcome" remains more likely.
In shorter time frames, Bitcoin traders continue to wait for a volatility catalyst to break the current range.
Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades believes the likelihood of this happening in the second half of June, or even within this week, is high.
"The price is still hovering around the $105,000 area, which is the midpoint of the monthly range, right near the monthly opening price," he told fans on the X platform in his latest analysis.
"The price has been compressing, and it's clear the market is waiting for a big move. The statistics still strongly support further price movement this week, especially within this month."
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Another trader, Skew, also joined those who see a potential dip to around $103,000 to capture buy order liquidity.
$BTCUpdate: Still chopping around but eyes on that $105K ask liquidity. Next area for decent bid liquidity $103K but again $105K pivot will dictate https://t.co/xpovzGurYR pic.twitter.com/EKWyveMJMp
Crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe described the Federal Reserve event as "insignificant."
"I believe we will see the price test $106,000 and break north in the coming days," he predicted that day.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart and RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Related: Traders: Bitcoin (BTC) fund flows to Ethereum (ETH) unnoticed by the market due to "bear market trauma" effects
Original article: “Analysts Predict When Bitcoin (BTC) Price Volatility Will Occur”
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