Author: White55, Mars Finance

I. Historic Breakthrough: The "Bretton Woods Moment" from Crypto Assets to Digital Dollar

In the early hours of June 19, 2025, the U.S. capital markets witnessed a celebration that is destined to be recorded in financial history: the stock price of stablecoin giant Circle (CRCL) surged 34% in a single day, reaching the $200 mark during trading, marking the largest increase since its IPO on June 5. Behind this number lies not only a fervent pursuit of emerging asset classes by capital but also a restructuring game concerning monetary sovereignty, financial power, and regulatory order.

Just 48 hours earlier, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act (full name: Guidance and Establishment of the U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation Act) with an overwhelming vote of 68 to 30, establishing a federal regulatory framework for U.S. dollar stablecoins. The act defines stablecoins as "digital cash," requiring issuers to maintain 100% reserves in highly liquid assets (such as short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and cash deposits) and prohibits paying interest to users to strengthen their payment tool attributes. This legislative breakthrough marks the first time that crypto assets, which have existed in a gray area since the birth of Bitcoin, have been formally incorporated into the traditional financial system. As Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire declared on social media: "This is the 'iPhone moment' for the digital dollar—when stablecoins evolve from lubricants for crypto trading into the infrastructure for global payments, the form of money will be completely rewritten."

The market's reaction confirmed this judgment. Since its IPO at $31 on June 5, Circle's stock price has risen by 543%, with a market capitalization exceeding $40 billion, surpassing PayPal and nearing the peak valuation of Square. The core logic behind this surge lies in the "triple empowerment" of USDC (the U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by Circle) by the act:

• Compliance Premium: The act brings stablecoin issuers with a market cap over $10 billion under Federal Reserve regulation, forcing competitors like Tether to face stricter auditing and reserve requirements, while USDC, with its first-mover compliance advantage (99.5% of reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds and cash), becomes the preferred safe haven for institutional funds;
• Scenario Expansion: The act explicitly allows stablecoins to be used in everyday payments and cross-border settlements, breaking the current situation where over 80% of trading volume is concentrated in crypto asset exchanges, paving the way for USDC's penetration into traditional payment networks like Visa and SWIFT;
• Geopolitical Dividend: The act prohibits non-U.S. dollar stablecoins from entering the U.S. market and mandates foreign issuers (like Tether) to accept equivalent regulation, effectively incorporating the global stablecoin market into the U.S. dollar hegemony system. In this context, USDC's $61 billion circulation (29% of the global stablecoin market) becomes a strategic tool for the U.S. to consolidate its "digital dollar" hegemony.

II. The Evolution of Business Models: From "U.S. Treasury Arbitrageurs" to "On-Chain Federal Reserve"

Circle's rise is essentially a revolution against the traditional financial intermediary function. Its core business model can be summarized in "three steps":

Step One: Mint Stablecoins, Absorb Global Dollar Liquidity

When users purchase 1 USDC through platforms like Coinbase, Circle receives $1 in cash. As of the first quarter of 2025, Circle managed reserve assets totaling $61.4 billion, with 80% invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and 20% held in systemically important institutions like Bank of New York Mellon. This model generates enormous profits during the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate cycle (currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.3%): Circle's total revenue in 2024 was $1.676 billion, with 99% coming from reserve interest, resulting in a net profit of $156 million.

Step Two: Build a Payment Network, Replace SWIFT's Century-Long Hegemony

Circle is secretly advancing the "CPN" (Circle Payments Network) plan, aiming to achieve near-instant cross-border payments using blockchain technology, reducing fees from the traditional SWIFT's 1% to 0.01%. This ambition is backed by the act—requiring stablecoin issuers to connect with FedNow (the Federal Reserve's real-time payment system), laying the groundwork for interoperability between the digital dollar and USDC. If CPN succeeds, Circle will become the "on-chain hub" connecting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private stablecoins, comparable to AWS in the internet era.

Step Three: Absorb Real Assets, Initiate the RWA (Real Asset Tokenization) Revolution

The launch of the tokenized Treasury bond fund USYC in collaboration with BlackRock signifies that Circle is extending its reach into the $16 trillion U.S. Treasury market. By converting bonds, real estate, and other assets into on-chain tokens, USDC will become the natural settlement medium for these assets, collecting minting and circulation fees. If this transformation succeeds, Circle's revenue structure will shift from a reliance on interest to a triad of "reserve interest + payment fees + RWA service fees," completely shedding the label of being a "puppet of U.S. Treasury yields."

However, this grand narrative conceals fatal risks. Circle's net profit margin is only 9.3%, far below the average level of tech giants, with the core issue being high distribution costs: payments to Coinbase in 2024 reached $908 million (60% of total costs), exposing weak ecological control. More critically, if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to 3% as the market expects in 2026, Circle's interest income will shrink by 30%, forcing management to prove the profitability potential of its payment and RWA businesses within the next 18 months.

III. Capital's Shadow War: The "Ice and Fire" of Institutional Retreat and Retail Frenzy

While the market cheers Circle's surge, a hidden capital game is unfolding. On June 17, Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood sold 643,000 shares of Circle stock over two days, cashing out $96.5 million, triggering market panic over "good news being fully priced in." This action starkly contrasts with her usual disruptive technology beliefs—was it profit-taking or a scent of uncertainty following regulatory implementation?

Comparing other capital movements, the answer may lie in the details:

• BlackRock Stays Put: As a cornerstone investor in Circle, BlackRock holds a 10% stake and has not disclosed any reductions, clearly betting on the long-term value of RWA tokenization;
• Insider Lock-Up Game: CEO Jeremy Allaire plans to sell only 8% of his holdings (about 1.58 million shares), far below the IPO lock-up limit, signaling management's confidence;
• Retail Frenzy: Data from platforms like Robinhood shows that retail trading's share has surged from 15% at the IPO's start to 34%, with a 300% increase in open interest for leveraged contracts, indicating that market sentiment has entered an irrational zone.

This divergence reflects a fundamental disagreement between institutions and retail investors regarding Circle's valuation model:

• Institutional Perspective: Using a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model, Circle's current P/E ratio of 174 has already priced in growth expectations for the next three years, especially since building the payment network requires tens of billions in investment, potentially squeezing short-term profits;
• Retail Narrative: Retail investors liken Circle to the "on-chain Federal Reserve," believing its market value should be compared to the size of central bank balance sheets (the Federal Reserve's current assets are $8.9 trillion), thus granting it a higher premium.

This cognitive gap is a classic portrayal of the coexistence of capital market bubbles and opportunities.

IV. Ultimate Challenge: The "Spear and Shield" of Dollar Hegemony

Circle's fate has long transcended the commercial realm, becoming a microcosm of great power financial games. The passage of the GENIUS Act is essentially a "digital expedition of the dollar": by mandating that stablecoin reserves be anchored to U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. is transforming global cryptocurrency liquidity into "new buyers" of U.S. Treasuries. Data shows that Tether and Circle already hold $122 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, accounting for 2% of the market's stock. If the stablecoin market reaches $3 trillion by 2030 (as predicted by Standard Chartered), its purchasing power for U.S. Treasuries will exceed the combined holdings of Japan and China.

However, this intricate design faces threefold backlash:

• Technological Overreach: The cross-border nature of blockchain fundamentally conflicts with the long-arm jurisdiction of U.S. dollar regulation, and decentralized stablecoins (like DAI) may bypass the act's constraints, forming "regulatory enclaves";
• Geopolitical Backlash: China is accelerating the cross-border settlement of the digital yuan, and Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" explicitly supports Hong Kong dollar stablecoins, attempting to replace USDC in "Belt and Road" trade;
• Internal Division: The act prohibits large tech companies (like Amazon and Meta) from issuing stablecoins, but traditional giants like Walmart and JPMorgan have already secretly laid out plans, potentially leading to direct competition with Circle in the future.

Conclusion: Reconstructing the Future of Money on the Edge of a Knife

At 2:30 AM, Circle's stock price was fixed at $199.59 on the electronic screen of the New York Stock Exchange. This number represents both the capital's pricing of a technological revolution and a measure of the old order's compromise with the new world. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dodged questions about the timeline for the "digital dollar" during a congressional hearing, Circle had quietly laid the tracks connecting the traditional and crypto worlds.

The endgame of this feast may be as filled with bubbles and breakage as the 19th-century railway stock frenzy, or it may reshape human economic forms like the internet revolution. What is certain is that as dollar hegemony is reborn through blockchain, Circle is both the player and the piece—each rise and fall is writing a modern revelation about monetary power.

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