I. Intertwined Triple Variables in Fundamentals: The Crypto Market Faces a Critical Juncture
1. Federal Reserve Policy Balance: Dot Plot as a Watershed for Bulls and Bears
CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of a rate cut in this meeting remains at 0%. Market focus is on the dot plot's forecast for the number of rate cuts this year and the tone of Powell's speech. Historical experience indicates that if the dot plot signals 1-2 rate cuts (a dovish signal), U.S. Treasury yields may temporarily decline, and a weaker dollar index could boost risk appetite for crypto assets, potentially opening a low-buy window for mainstream coins and a rotation in altcoins; if the dot plot removes the rate cut plans for the year and Powell emphasizes the priority of combating inflation (especially due to the oil price pressures from the Israel conflict), the crypto market may face short-term liquidity tightening shocks.
2. Regulatory Policies as a Double-Edged Sword: Diverging Attitudes of the SEC and Congress
SEC Maintains High Pressure: The approval of XRP and Solana spot ETFs under Franklin has been postponed again, reflecting the regulatory body's strict scrutiny of digital asset compliance, continuing to limit institutional capital entry channels;
Legislative Breakthrough on the Horizon: The U.S. Senate has passed the stablecoin "GENIUS Act." If the House of Representatives completes the legislative process, it will become a milestone event for the institutionalization of stablecoins, potentially introducing trillions of compliant funds into the crypto payment and DeFi sectors.
II. Technical Tug-of-War: BTC/ETH Support Levels as Key to Survival
▶ BTC: The $103,000 Defense Line Faces Triple Tests
Daily Structure: Yesterday closed with a large bearish candlestick, continuing the previous day's downtrend. The technical indicators have effectively broken below the support of the moving average system, with the 7-day moving average turning down to form a death cross, showing the initial signs of a bearish arrangement. The $103,000 level (a strong support level tested three times in the past month without breaking) constitutes a trend watershed; losing this level may trigger programmatic selling;
4-Hour Dynamics: A decline of nearly 5,000 points within 24 hours, after dipping to $103,000 in the early morning, triggered a technical rebound, but the rebound highs have been successively lower ($106,500 → $105,500), indicating that the bears are in control. Key focus today is on the $105,500-$106,500 resistance zone, while whether the $103,500-$102,500 support area breaks will determine the short-term trend direction.
▶ ETH: The $2,480 Defense Battle Intensifies
Daily Level: Two consecutive days of highs followed by declines, with the 7-day moving average continuing to extend downward, forming a broken golden cross, showing clear signs of weakness. The $2,480 support level has been tested five times; if it breaks, it will activate bearish acceleration, targeting strong support at $2,280;
4-Hour Cycle: After reaching a new high last week, it fell into a volatile downward channel, triggering a volume-constrained rebound at $2,480 in the early morning. Weak volume indicates insufficient bullish support. The $2,540-$2,570 resistance zone above constitutes rebound resistance, while breaking the $2,490-$2,460 support area below will confirm the mid-term adjustment trend.
III. Altcoin Investment Logic: Avoiding Volatility Traps While Waiting for Liquidity Turning Points
In the recent market rebound, some altcoins saw significant gains, triggering a following sentiment among some investors. However, caution is needed regarding three major risk dimensions:
Macroeconomic Vulnerability: The escalation of geopolitical conflicts combined with SEC regulatory uncertainties continues to pressure the liquidity of high-risk assets, with significant daily pullbacks frequently erasing previous gains;
Market Structural Defects: A lack of sustained mainline hotspots, with altcoins generally showing a pattern of rising and falling, leaving most investors facing difficulties in realizing profits;
Funding Constraints: Under the dual effects of geopolitical risks and regulatory pressures, the altcoin sector needs to wait for market sentiment to ease and liquidity to improve (such as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve). Blindly chasing highs may face the risk of intensified bull-bear battles.
Risk Warning: The 24-hour trading characteristics of the cryptocurrency market exacerbate price volatility, and factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical issues may trigger extreme market conditions. The above analysis is based on current market data and does not constitute any investment advice; operations must strictly adhere to risk control strategies.
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