On June 11, a preliminary trade agreement between the United States and China, unilaterally announced by President Trump, brought a brief respite to global markets while deepening uncertainty. The agreement made key concessions on rare earth supplies but at the cost of a highly imbalanced tariff structure, fully exposing the complex realities of the strategic game between the two sides in high technology, economics, and geopolitics.
At the same time, the controversial new immigration policy introduced by the Trump administration domestically, along with the subtle changes in its relationship with tech giant Elon Musk, together contributed to the high uncertainty of its policies during the second term.
Compromise and Cost of the Agreement: Rare Earths for Tariffs
According to Trump's statement on his social platform Truth Social, the core of the agreement is a strategic exchange.
China's rare earth "trump card" is effective. The agreement stipulates that China commits to "preemptively provide all magnets and any necessary rare earth materials." This move aims to alleviate the severe supply chain crisis faced by the U.S. in high technology, military, and electric vehicle industries since China implemented export controls in April 2025. Major automakers like General Motors and Ford faced risks of production line shutdowns, highlighting the deep dependence of the U.S. on China for this strategic resource. Although this clause is a "desperate need" for the U.S., the stability of its implementation and whether China will completely lift controls remain uncertain.
The highly imbalanced tariff structure has become the focus. In exchange, the agreement sets U.S. tariffs on China at 55%, while China's tariffs on the U.S. are only 10%. Although this rate is a significant drop from the previously rumored 145%, it is still far above the average level of about 19.3% during Trump's first term. Goldman Sachs analysts believe this move will significantly burden the Chinese economy, while U.S. consumers will inevitably bear the high costs of imports. Additionally, the clause allowing Chinese students to return to U.S. universities has been interpreted as a gesture of easing tensions, but its symbolic significance outweighs any substantial concessions.
Trump's statement reserved the possibility that "the agreement must be finally approved by both leaders," which is seen as a continuation of his signature "art of the deal" strategy, leaving room for future policy adjustments and adding variables to the final implementation of the agreement.
Trump's Domestic Agenda: The "Gold Card" Plan and Social Divisions
On the same day, the much-anticipated "Gold Card" immigration plan website officially launched. This plan allows foreign investors who pay $5 million to obtain U.S. permanent residency and even a path to citizenship.
Supporters believe this move can attract high-net-worth individuals to inject vitality into the U.S. economy, but critics point out that this is a blatant "sale of green cards," which will exacerbate social injustice and may provide a breeding ground for illegal capital flows. This policy opens the door to wealth while closing a narrow door for ordinary immigrants, reflecting profound social divisions that may become a persistent point of controversy during his term.
Musk and Trump: Can the Relationship Be Repaired?
The relationship between the tech world and the White House has also been tumultuous. Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly apologized on the X platform for his previous criticisms of Trump, stating that his remarks were "excessive." This move is seen as a cautious adjustment following Trump's threat to terminate SpaceX's government contracts, which led to a sharp drop in Tesla's stock price.
Musk was once a significant supporter of Trump and even briefly held a public office. However, his recent reduction in political donations and resignation mark a distancing of their relationship. In public interviews, Musk warned that the U.S. power shortage would constrain AI development and pointed out China's advantages in electricity generation, which is seen as an indirect challenge to the Trump administration's industrial policy. The shift from close allies to subtle players between Musk and Trump reflects the complex and tense interactions between U.S. tech capital and political power.
Analysis and Outlook: Uncertainty in a High-Risk Game
The achievement of this preliminary agreement between the U.S. and China is less a beginning of cooperation and more a pause in a high-risk game. China, leveraging its strategic advantage in rare earths, forced the U.S. to compromise on supply chain security; meanwhile, Trump continues his "America First" economic pressure strategy by maintaining high tariffs.
Looking ahead, the details of the agreement's implementation, the stability of rare earth supplies, and the pressures faced by the Trump administration both internally and externally will be focal points of ongoing market attention. The global economy, under the dual influence of the fragile balance in U.S.-China relations and internal political tensions in the U.S., may see uncertainty become the new normal.
Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the position or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone. Any disputes between users and columnists are unrelated to this platform.
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