Original author: Haotian (X: @tmel0211)
Seeing Pump.fun planning to issue tokens at a valuation of $4 billion to raise $1 billion, I have mixed feelings. It's hard to imagine that a MEME launch platform has a valuation that surpasses most DeFi blue-chip protocols. Is such a sky-high valuation reasonable? Here are a few points of view:
1) The inflated and bubble-like market valuation is quite unreasonable
From the data, Pump.fun is indeed the biggest beneficiary of this MEME super cycle, with peak monthly revenues reaching tens of millions of dollars, a phenomenon that would be remarkable even in traditional internet sectors.
However, Pump.fun's attention economy business model relies on the short-term irrational product of market MEME coins' high FOMO. In simple terms, it is driven by "gambling" to monetize traffic. This means that Pump.fun's ability to monetize its business model is entirely a product of the short-term spotlight effect in the market, rather than a sustainable profit logic.
Based on this, is a $4 billion valuation reasonable? This pricing far exceeds that of most DeFi blue-chip protocols, making it hard to imagine that a platform mocked for harvesting retail investors could have a valuation that crushes innovative blue-chip protocols. Once the MEME craze fades or the market returns to rationality, Pump.fun's revenue model could collapse instantly. So what exactly is Pump.fun pouring into the market by issuing tokens at this moment when the MEME trend is cooling?
2) A fragile business moat can easily be surpassed
Pump.fun's success seems accidental but is actually inevitable; it has seized the technological dividends of Solana's high performance and low cost, as well as the era's dividends of MEME culture moving from niche to mainstream.
But how deep is this "first-mover advantage" moat? Technologically, similar token launch platforms can be quickly replicated; operationally, a MEME launch platform is essentially a traffic business, and once the hot topic shifts or regulations tighten, the cost of user migration is extremely low.
More critically, Pump.fun is highly dependent on the Solana ecosystem. If there are significant changes in the Solana ecosystem, the fragility of its business model will be fully exposed. This business model, built on others' infrastructure, is essentially a "dependent" business, and given its significant unsustainability, how can it support a $4 billion independent valuation?
3) The tool-like attributes of Launchpad make it hard to form an ecosystem
Currently, Pump.fun is merely a "token launch tool," and to support a $4 billion market valuation, it would need at least a large MEME economic ecosystem. Knowing it is unachievable yet still pursuing it, it is hard to imagine what the $1 billion financing scale aims to achieve.
Unbeknownst to many, transforming from a pure Launchpad into a complex MEME economic ecosystem presents a paradox: the core of MEME culture is precisely simple, direct, and viral dissemination; excessive functional layering will only cause the platform to lose its original "wildness."
In fact, balancing the "short and quick" characteristics of MEMEs with the long-term value accumulation of the platform is challenging. Products that attempt to evolve from tools to platforms often lose themselves in the pursuit of being "big and comprehensive," ultimately becoming something that is neither here nor there. With $1 billion in hand, Pump.fun may be heading toward such a fate.
4) Extremely high valuations will disrupt the original value innovation system
Pump.fun's extremely high valuation sends a dangerous signal to the entire industry: in the current Crypto ecosystem, the value of "traffic aggregation + speculative monetization" may surpass that of "technological innovation + infrastructure." One must ask, when creating gambling platforms is more profitable than promoting technological innovation, who will still tackle the hard bone of infrastructure? It is hard to imagine what kind of disastrous industry chain reactions this new value orientation will produce.
On one hand, more capital and talent will flow into MEME-related infrastructure construction; on the other hand, it may exacerbate the industry's trend toward "entertainment," marginalizing true technological innovation.
In summary, Pump.fun's token issuance is both a sign of the MEME economy maturing and possibly a signal of the industry's value system collapse.
The key lies in whether it can truly build a sustainable business moat after obtaining massive capital; otherwise, this distorted valuation could bring tremendous innovative disasters to the entire industry, heralding a more utilitarian, shortsighted, and distant future from the technical geek essence of Crypto.
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