Author: David Carvalho, Founder, CEO, and Chief Scientist of Naoris Protocol.
Satoshi Nakamoto redefined currency. In the face of the collapse of financial institutions that millions of people trusted in 2008, he created a decentralized currency system based on elliptic curve cryptography. This combination of mathematical rationality and decentralization is highly disruptive, attracting not only hardcore skeptics but also top global financial institutions like BlackRock.
Bitcoin has never been breached in its 16 years of existence. However, with the advent of the quantum computing era, this record is about to be rewritten. Since its birth from the ruins of the global financial crisis, quantum computing poses the most severe existential threat to Bitcoin.
Once regarded as a science fiction product, the development of quantum computers has exceeded imagination—within as little as five years, they could tear apart Bitcoin's cryptographic system. Quantum expert Michele Mosca and other scholars have even warned that the crisis could erupt as soon as next year.
Institutions like the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the National Security Agency (NSA) are working hard to complete the migration to quantum-safe standards by 2030. Yet, the Bitcoin community remains complacent, with forum discussions only lingering on theoretical solutions like BIP-360 (quantum-resistant hash payments) or paper talk about delayed disclosure mechanisms.
Theoretical discussions must end. If substantial action is not taken now to upgrade the Bitcoin blockchain, this $22 trillion cryptocurrency empire could vanish into thin air. Just one compromised wallet or one tampered transaction could collapse the trust foundation built over sixteen years.
This crisis warrants a wake-up call for the entire industry.
The Rise of Supercomputers
The breakthrough of Microsoft's Majorana chip has compressed the development cycle of practical quantum supercomputers from decades to just a few years. In short, it paves the way for quantum miracles by overcoming the two major technical bottlenecks of scalability and stability.
In just a few months, the number of quantum computers worldwide has increased to about 100. McKinsey predicts that this number will reach 5,000 by 2030. These computers not only surpass traditional machines in speed but also fundamentally reconstruct the computational paradigm with their parallel computing models.
This poses a lethal threat to traditional cryptography that protects Bitcoin private keys, such as ECDSA. Currently, at least 30% of Bitcoin (approximately 6.2 million coins) is stored in P2PK or reused P2PK hash addresses, which are prime targets for quantum attacks.
Once breached, the assets of holders will permanently disappear, and the entire ecosystem will suffer severe damage. This is enough to prove that a "unbreachable" system can indeed be breached. It is for this reason that BlackRock specifically warned of quantum threats in its latest spot ETF filing; it is for this reason that the window of action is closing.
Countdown to Q Day
"Q Day" refers to the critical point at which quantum computers can break traditional cryptography. Given that blockchain data is permanently transparent and traceable, not only current transactions but even transfer records from ten years ago could be exposed to risk.
More severely, hackers have initiated a "collect now, decrypt later" strategy, hoarding encrypted data. It is foreseeable that when Q Day arrives, a coordinated attack will erupt globally. Bitcoin must build its defenses before that happens.
Post-Quantum Future
Upgrading the entire blockchain to a quantum-resistant cryptographic system would require a hard fork, which is a taboo topic in the crypto community. Such a drastic change could disrupt user experience, sever liquidity, trigger network splits, and even lead to a rift among the old guard.
Alternative solutions do exist: hybrid solutions prioritizing transaction security without touching the underlying protocol, layered security models, quantum-resistant key management systems, and proactive infrastructure renovations.
This is by no means an easy task, especially considering the historically conservative and slow nature of the Bitcoin network. But in the face of life and death, there is no room for hesitation. Immediate decisions and implementations are necessary because the current Bitcoin system is destined to fail in the post-quantum era.
When Satoshi Nakamoto endowed the world with a new currency system, he never prohibited its evolution. The choice now lies with the community—will it proactively upgrade to meet Q Day, or will it sit idly by? The greatest threat to Bitcoin is not quantum computing, but human complacency.
Author: David Carvalho, Founder, CEO, and Chief Scientist of Naoris Protocol.
Related: The UK FCA approves registered BCP company to launch a pound stablecoin.
This article is for general reference only and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) Must Upgrade Within Five Years or Face Quantum Computing Threat”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
