After Wolf finished speaking, I really thought about how to safely achieve an annualized return of 10% with a holding of 1.5 million dollars. However, after thinking it over, it seems that I can't find a stable plan that guarantees a 10% return while also ensuring 100% capital safety. In fact, even a return close to 100% safe at 10% is hard for me to conceive.

Generally speaking, a return of 10% or more usually involves leverage or high-volatility assets. Quantitative trading is one of the options, but it definitely carries risks for the principal. Therefore, I think we can approach it from a different angle:

Invest 1.5 million dollars in 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds, with a yield barely reaching 5%. If by 2026 we have entered a period of monetary easing, there may still be a small profit opportunity in the secondary market for 20-year bonds, resulting in 1.575 million dollars after one year.

(If there is still no monetary easing in 2026, it should be similar in 2027 or 2028, even if the economic recession has ended by then.)

After purchasing the 20-year Treasury bonds, I would go to Interactive Brokers for a mortgage, obtaining 1.35 million dollars. I would then deposit this 1.35 million dollars with a third-party brokerage and buy one-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which currently have a yield of 4.13%. The interest rate from Interactive Brokers is 2.85% (SOFR + 0.75%, with SOFR = 2.1%). Assuming SOFR remains unchanged, the principal plus interest after one year would be 1.4075 million dollars, and the interest from Interactive Brokers would be 38,475 dollars, resulting in a net profit of nearly 70,000 dollars.

The total return would be over 1.645 million dollars, which meets the 10% return requirement. Of course, the biggest risk here is the rise in SOFR; if it exceeds 3.4%, I would start to incur losses.

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