According to a cryptocurrency analyst, Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase following U.S. President Trump's tariff decision, but this does not necessarily indicate a bearish signal.
Nick Forster, founder of the on-chain options protocol Derive, told Cointelegraph: "While the recent surge above $111,000 is remarkable, the current price action suggests that this is a consolidation phase rather than a signal for an imminent breakout."
Forster believes that the consolidation phase could be a "healthy pause" before another "significant rise." He noted that this pause will give the "market time to digest recent gains and prepare for the next phase."
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has risen 11.59% in the past 30 days, reaching an all-time high of $111,970 on May 22, before pulling back to around $105,976 at the time of writing.
The next phase of price movement remains uncertain. Bitcoin researcher Sminston With stated that Bitcoin could rise by 100% to 200%, with cycle peaks between $220,000 and $330,000. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency trader Apsk32 suggested that a more reasonable target for Bitcoin in 2025 is $220,000.
Forster mentioned that the U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 28 to block Trump's comprehensive tariffs, stating that he exceeded his authority, which means that "direct concerns about inflation caused by trade have been alleviated."
However, the U.S. Federal Circuit Court ruled on May 29 that Trump could temporarily continue to implement his tariff regime under emergency powers during the appeal of the trade court's decision.
Forster added that the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision on June 18 "will be crucial."
Forster stated that while the third quarter has historically been a "weaker period" for Bitcoin, the situation in 2025 may be different.
"Favorable regulatory developments and ongoing institutional investor interest could support strong performance in the third quarter," Forster said.
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has averaged a 6.03% increase in the third quarter since 2013, while the fourth quarter has historically been its strongest quarter, with an average return of 85.42%.
Forster also pointed out the significant inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF funds, which have not yet reflected in the spot price.
"Despite significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, particularly with over $6.2 billion flowing into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust in May, the Bitcoin price has not experienced a corresponding increase," Forster stated.
In the trading week ending May 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of $2.75 billion.
"This phenomenon can be attributed to the nature of ETF investments, which typically involve institutional investors seeking exposure without immediately impacting spot market prices," he further explained.
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This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) to experience a ‘healthy pause’ around $106,000 before price strengthens”
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