Discussing Bitcoin's investment strategy again

CN
3 days ago

After the article was published on Friday, many readers shared their views on long-term holding. It can be felt that many readers have a certain resistance to this approach, or even if they accept it, they will more or less make some compromises in their operations.

I understand this mentality very well.

In fact, my thoughts on long-term holding did not come about overnight; they were gradually accepted after a period of reflection and comparison.

Actually, a long time ago (around 2017 or 2018), I heard some veteran players in the ecosystem suggest holding onto Bitcoin without selling.

However, at that time, facing such a volatile asset, I thought that holding it without action was a waste of resources and opportunities, and that doing so would lead to very low capital efficiency.

At that time, I was a bit more cautious: although I also engaged in buying high and selling low, the funds I sold from Bitcoin would not be used to buy other assets, but would instead be used to buy Bitcoin again in the future. Plus, I was quite lucky back then; after selling high, I could still buy back at a lower price. As a result of these operations, I indeed accumulated more Bitcoin.

So, at that time, I looked down on the practice of holding without action.

However, over the past two years, after seeing more and more summaries of experiences from senior investors, I increasingly feel that the high and low buying experiences I had earlier were just luck and not sustainable.

In the last bull market, my regular selling of Bitcoin and Ethereum started after they fell 20% from their peak.

Many readers remember that the last bull market had a double top, with the second peak being the true top of the entire bull market. After the first peak came the sharp drop on May 19.

During the May 19 drop, both Bitcoin and Ethereum fell more than 20%. According to my selling criteria at that time, I should have started regular selling after the May 19 drop.

The reason I didn’t do that was that I was lucky enough to participate in the second major innovation of the Ethereum ecosystem, which was the rise of NFTs, just as it was beginning to emerge. There were already strong signs of growth. So, I was confident that the bull market would continue and had not yet reached its end.

But if I hadn’t been so lucky that year, and hadn’t participated when the NFT trend first appeared, or even if I had participated but didn’t feel the strong momentum and wasn’t confident that the bull market was still ongoing, I might have thought that the crypto ecosystem's market was over after the May 19 drop and would have started regular selling as planned.

In that case, when the second wave of a real big market was about to arrive, would I be flustered and at a loss? It’s hard to imagine.

The same reasoning applies: when the second peak arrives and drops 20%, if I start regular selling and then the Ethereum ecosystem sees a third innovation leading to a third peak, what would I do? It’s also hard to imagine.

Now, looking back at these situations and reviewing the various possibilities at that time, I feel that if the funds used for heavy investment are idle and do not affect my life, as long as the market is not too outrageous, the best method is still to hold long-term without action, as long as the assets held have potential and a future.

The biggest advantage of this method is that you won’t be left behind; the biggest disadvantage is that it takes time and can be quite grueling, making holders endure loneliness and the psychological impact of market downturns for a period.

But for crypto assets, which are a once-in-a-thousand-years occurrence that change the financial landscape of humanity, being left behind is the biggest risk, the greatest misfortune, and the greatest pain.

Compared to this risk, misfortune, and pain, a little inner loneliness and solitude is nothing.

Some readers ask me if I would still do regular investments and regular selling now?

I would definitely do regular investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

As for regular selling of Bitcoin and Ethereum, that’s really uncertain.

I might sell, but it would have to be at an extremely outrageous price. By "extremely outrageous," I mean a price so high that various media have to follow suit and boast about it, and people outside my circle start inquiring about buying.

I might also not sell, even if the price is slightly high, but as long as it’s not too outrageous, I might not sell at all.

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