Key Summary:
When Bitcoin reached a new price high, funding rates and trading sentiment remained unusually calm.
The increase in stablecoin supply and global M2 growth indicates untapped liquidity and the potential for further price increases.
Long-term holders have not actively sold, reflecting their expectations for the continued appreciation of Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin set a new all-time high on May 21, with prices rising to $111,860 on Binance on May 22, but the market lacked the usual frenzy associated with new highs. Economist and cryptocurrency commentator Alex Krüger pointed out that this is Bitcoin's "least euphoric all-time high" after highlighting the low funding rates for Bitcoin on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Bitcoin price and aggregated funding rates. Source: Coinalyze
The chart shows that the current BTC funding rate is significantly lower than the previous market highs observed in March and November 2024. Funding rates were six times higher in the first quarter compared to last year and three times higher in the fourth quarter.
These low rates indicate that speculative activity in the futures market is at its lowest level, with this round of increases primarily driven by spot buyers rather than leveraged traders, significantly reducing the risk of market corrections due to excessive leverage.
This situation also suggests that Bitcoin may not have yet reached a state of market euphoria.
The untapped liquidity in the cryptocurrency ecosystem highlights the significant potential for further growth. The market capitalization of stablecoins (often seen as a leading indicator of capital inflows) rose by 14% in 2025. Tether (USDT) market capitalization jumped from $139 billion in January to $152 billion, while Circle's USDC supply increased by 35% to $58 billion.
Total supply of stablecoins. Source: Token Terminal
Stablecoins typically serve as an important bridge for new capital entering the crypto market, and their growth indicates that a substantial amount of liquidity has yet to be fully deployed into Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Additionally, global liquidity trends provide further market momentum. The global M2 money supply, which measures the total amount of money in circulation in major economies, grew by 5% in the first quarter of 2025, primarily driven by monetary policy adjustments in the U.S., EU, and Japan.
Cointelegraph reported that there is a strong correlation of over 80% between Bitcoin prices and global liquidity, typically with a 60-day lag, clearly indicating stronger buying pressure in the coming months.
Bitcoin price and global M2 supply. Source: X.com
Glassnode data provides deeper insights into the current market dynamics for Bitcoin. Despite reaching new highs, profit-taking behavior among Bitcoin holders remains restrained. The data analysis platform noted, "When Bitcoin set its all-time high yesterday, the total profit-taking amount was about $1 billion—less than half of the amount realized when Bitcoin first broke $100,000 last December, which reached $2.1 billion. Despite higher prices, actual profit-taking has been noticeably more restrained."
This restrained behavior suggests that long-term holders are not in a hurry to cash out, which typically reflects their confidence in further price increases in the future.
Bitcoin spending data categorized by age. Source: X.com
The lack of widespread participation indicates that the current rise in Bitcoin is not a crowded trade, leaving room for new capital to enter the market. The restrained profit-taking behavior, combined with the subdued speculative activity in the futures market, paints a picture of a market that is far from overheating or entering a state of "euphoria."
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) price targets $112,000 as risk assets "ignore negative unemployment news"
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Analysts: Bitcoin (BTC) Could Go Much Higher Due to Lack of FOMO and Futures Market Euphoria”
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