Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Another year of 5·19.
After breaking through $107,000 this morning, a pullback followed: BTC fell below $103,000; ETH fell below $2,400; SOL fell below $160. Coinglass data shows that the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours reached $618 million, with long positions liquidating $392 million and short positions liquidating $227 million. The liquidation volume of ETH exceeded that of BTC. Despite this, many in the market still hold the view that BTC is about to break new highs. Unlike the various statements from whales mentioned in our previous article “Bull Retreat vs. Bear Carnival: Has $100,000 Become BTC's 'Maginot Line'?”, many crypto market analysts and industry representatives choose to influence the market through their statements.
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize this in the article.
Bullish View: New Highs Imminent, First Target at $116,000, Below $100,000 Will Become History
With the phased end of the US-China tariff trade war and the frequent release of various policy benefits by the Trump administration, many believe that the crypto market is about to welcome a new wave of price peaks led by BTC, with BTC target prices ranging from $116,000 to $220,000 and even $250,000.
Traders Predict BTC May Break Historical Highs in the Short Term, Target Price at $116,000
Crypto trader Alan predicts that Bitcoin will break its historical high in the coming days, targeting a price of $116,000. He points out that Bitcoin is currently within a converging triangle structure with gradually decreasing trading volume, indicating potential for significant volatility.
Additionally, trader Mikybull Crypto identified a "diamond pattern breakout" signal, believing that the price trend is strong, while Daan Crypto Trades noted that a spot premium on Coinbase continues to exist, showing active buying from the US. Nevertheless, traders like CrypNuevo remind that Bitcoin has not fully broken through key resistance levels, and there may still be risks of a pullback in the short term.
Whale James Wynn: BTC Is Unlikely to Fall Below $100,000
Whale James Wynn stated that it would be great if Bitcoin fell below $100,000, as it would allow for more accumulation or further increases, but this is unlikely to happen.
Galaxy CEO: Bitcoin's Next Price Phase May Be Between $130,000 and $150,000
Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz stated in an interview with CNBC that given the market value of gold assets is about $22 trillion, while Bitcoin's market value is only $2 trillion, Bitcoin's next price phase may be between $130,000 and $150,000. From this perspective, it is still in the price discovery phase.
Analyst: Bitcoin May Rise to $220,000 by 2025, $250,000 as an Outperforming Range
Crypto analyst Apsk32 stated that Bitcoin following gold to reach new highs is a popular theory among bullish investors. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise a few months after gold does. With gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce, the future price outlook for Bitcoin has also become brighter. Apsk32 mentioned the concept of a "momentum curve," which measures Bitcoin's price in terms of gold ounces to avoid the impact of dollar inflation. If Bitcoin's network value (measured in gold) continues to evolve along the momentum curve, and gold maintains its current price while Bitcoin's price returns to the leading support of five years, we could see a target of $444,000 this year. However, this week, Apsk32 believes a more "reasonable" target price for 2025 might be around $220,000, adding that if Bitcoin's price breaks $250,000, it would be considered an outperforming range.
Analyst: Bitcoin Could Very Well Rise to $250,000 This Year
Crypto analyst and host of the podcast "The Wolf of All Streets," Scott Melker stated that BTC reaching $250,000 in 2025 is "entirely possible." He pointed out that the continuous influx of institutional investors and the decrease in market volatility are key factors driving the price up. Scott Melker emphasized that with the participation of traditional financial institutions like pension funds and ETF issuers, the Bitcoin market is becoming more mature and stable, with Bitcoin's volatility decreasing from three times that of the S&P 500 index in the past to less than twice.
Additionally, Scott Melker mentioned that Coinbase being included in the top 50 of the S&P 500 index, companies like Galaxy Digital and eToro advancing their listing plans, and the improvement of the regulatory environment in the US all provide strong support for the crypto market. Although most analysts predict that Bitcoin's peak in this cycle will be between $120,000 and $150,000, Melker believes that considering Bitcoin's previous rise from $3,000 to $69,000 in 2020, a further increase of 2.5 times from the current price is not impossible. Furthermore, Ethereum's recent gains exceeding those of Bitcoin have driven small-cap tokens up, indicating that "new funds" are flowing into the market rather than merely rotating among existing assets.
Miner Little Penguin: Has Bought SOL and BTC Spot Based on Large-Scale Market Judgments
Trader @Goupenguin (Miner Little Penguin) stated that he has bought spot at around $169.7 for SOL and $103,580 for BTC based on large-scale market judgments, mentioning that he missed out on profits in April due to missing the Trump-related market.
He stated that while he does not yet have a clear judgment on the upward space, he hopes the market can continue to rise despite the divergence in indicators.
Viewpoint: "Altcoin Season" Has Not Yet Arrived, but Institutional Investors Have Started Accumulating SOL
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin stated that there is still a long way to go before the so-called "altcoin season," as the current spot trading volume in the altcoin market is still below the levels of January 2025 and March 2024, and far below the levels of 2021.
However, some institutions have begun to accumulate SOL before the "altcoin season" arrives, such as DeFi Development Corp's SOL holdings exceeding $100 million, and SOL Strategies recently increasing their holdings by over 120,000 SOL. Additionally, the number of new developers on the Solana chain has just surpassed that of Ethereum, with a year-on-year growth of 83%. Developers are choosing Solana, with 65% of SOL staked, and open interest is also rising.
Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Save Physical Gold, Silver, and BTC to Resist the Next Crisis, Instead of Buying ETFs
Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," stated that in 1998, Wall Street united to rescue the hedge fund LTCM, and in 2008, the central bank saved Wall Street. Each crisis becomes larger, with the problem starting in 1971 when Nixon abolished the gold standard for the dollar. The next crisis may be triggered by the collapse of $1.6 trillion in student loan debt. For most people, the best way to protect themselves is through self-rescue, so they can save physical gold, silver, and Bitcoin instead of buying ETFs.
Fidelity: BTC Acceleration Phase Continues, Will Reach New Highs Before This Cycle Ends
Fidelity Digital Assets stated that after experiencing 69 days of low profits and high volatility, Bitcoin's acceleration phase continues. This trend reinforces the Fidelity team's argument that Bitcoin may reach new historical highs before this cycle ends.
CryptoQuant: Undervalued ETH Is Attracting ETF Buyers, Market May Rebound
CryptoQuant previously reported that Ethereum (ETH) relative to Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) drop to its lowest level since 2019, indicating that ETH may be undervalued. Historical data shows that at similar levels, ETH typically rises significantly and outperforms BTC. Since the end of April, the proportion of ETH/BTC ETF holdings has significantly increased, indicating that institutional investors expect ETH to outperform BTC, possibly driven by the recent Pectra upgrade and improvements in the macroeconomic environment. On-chain data shows that selling pressure on ETH has eased, trading volume has increased, supporting its potential upward trend. Currently, the ETH/BTC price ratio has rebounded 38% from its low in January 2020, with investors and traders betting that ETH has bottomed out, potentially triggering a new round of "altcoin season."
Matrixport: Bull-Bear Indicator Returns to Bullish Range, Bitcoin May Reach New Highs Again
Matrixport stated in its market analysis that the market value to realized value ratio bull-bear indicator it launched has re-entered the bullish range. Although the institution's technical analysis often leads on-chain data, the indicator reversal still holds significant reference value. Matrixport pointed out that such indicators rarely experience trend reversals in the short term, but a similar situation occurred in 2020 and was interpreted as a slowdown phase in the cycle. If the indicator maintains positive momentum, Bitcoin may be poised to challenge historical highs.
Legendary Investor Tim Draper: I Keep Buying More BTC
Venture capital legend Tim Draper stated in an interview, "I keep buying more Bitcoin." Back in 2014, he purchased 29,656 BTC for about $19 million through an auction by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, with an average price of about $640. This batch of BTC came from assets seized by the U.S. government during the Silk Road enforcement action. Draper has repeatedly expressed his long-term optimism for Bitcoin, believing it can bring liquidity to emerging markets and hedge against currency devaluation risks.
Bitcoin Transaction Fees Hit Yearly High, Illiquid Supply Reaches New High
The 7-day average transaction fee on the Bitcoin blockchain rose to $2.40, an increase of about $1 since early May, marking a yearly high. Glassnode data shows that the "illiquid supply" of BTC, which has not moved for a long time, has reached a historical high, indicating a decrease in the BTC available for trading on exchanges. If demand rises in the future, it may trigger a supply shock, further driving up prices. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market dominance has rebounded after a previous decline, suggesting that its short-term pullback relative to other crypto assets is more influenced by liquidity rather than a structural shift towards an "altcoin season."
Cautiously Optimistic: Limited Support for ETH, Don't Be Misled by Options Market Sentiment
During the rapid price recovery in the market, aside from highly optimistic views, some crypto analysts believe that the recent price increase, especially for ETH, has not received sufficient value support, and the positive sentiment in the options market should not be the sole basis for decisions.
Greeks.live: Options Data Shows Market Sentiment is Optimistic, but Short-Term Remains Cautious
Greeks.live analyst Adam previously stated, "May 16 options expiration data: 27,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.03, and a maximum pain point at $100,000, with a nominal value of $2.76 billion. 220,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.36, and a maximum pain point at $2,300, with a nominal value of $570 million. This week's Bitcoin expiration data is almost identical to last week, and Ethereum is similar aside from price factors. Currently, market sentiment is very good, but options data shows that there are still not many holders of mainstream coins, and the number of profit-takers is limited. Currently, the short-term RV for Bitcoin has dropped below 35%, while the medium to long-term is around 50%, but the IV has dropped more significantly, almost all falling below 45%, so the VRP across all terms has actually retreated.
The expiration volume is less than 9% of the total open interest, and the proportion of put options this month remains high. This phenomenon may not see a significant change until June. The market is relatively optimistic about the upcoming trends, but there are not many people looking to go long on BTC in the short term."
Analysis: Recent ETH Rise Driven Mainly by Technical Factors, Broad Allocation Will Still Be Limited
David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, stated that ETH experienced a price increase last week primarily driven by technical factors. The analysis pointed out that this increase reflects a large number of traders in incorrect positions conducting short covering and subsequent position adjustments, allowing ETH's price trend to catch up with other major tokens like BTC and SOL. However, David believes that despite this price performance, it may indicate that the market's willingness to allocate more broadly to ETH remains relatively limited.
Grayscale View: Bitcoin's Market Dominance Declines, but It Doesn't Mean "Altcoin Season" is Coming
Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has recently declined, and analysts point out that this does not mean that "altcoin season" is imminent. Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that when the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and risks facing the dollar, Bitcoin's dominance may rise; conversely, when the market focuses on various applications of blockchain technology and innovations in the crypto space, Bitcoin's dominance may decline. Additionally, he mentioned, "In the next approximately 9 to 12 months, Bitcoin's market share is more likely to stabilize between 60% and 70% of the overall crypto market, rather than experiencing a significant decline."
Event-Driven Decline: ETH, XRP, DOGE, and Other Select Coins Affected
Aside from the overall stable and positive market sentiment, the main reasons for the recent declines appear to be event-driven factors, such as local U.S. policies or interpretations of the U.S. stock market affecting the crypto market.
After Moody's Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating, ETH, XRP, and DOGE Drop About 3%
Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing reasons such as widening deficits, rising interest expenses, and a lack of political will to control spending. As a result, major cryptocurrencies saw price declines, with Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) each dropping about 3%. As of now, ETH is priced at $2,494.35, DOGE at $0.2175, and XRP at $2.38.
It is reported that this rating downgrade triggered market risk aversion, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a decline in S&P 500 futures, affecting both traditional and crypto markets. Moody's has become the third major rating agency to downgrade the U.S. rating, following Standard & Poor's (2011) and Fitch (2023).
Analyst: Market Overreacted to Coinbase Attack, SEC Investigation Caused Stock Price Drop
On May 16 (last Friday), Coinbase's stock price fell 7.2% on Thursday after the company disclosed that it had suffered a social engineering attack that led to a data breach of customer information and confirmed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating the disclosure of user data in its 2021 IPO filing. Analysts pointed out that the market's reaction to this news may be excessive. Analysts from Barclays and Oppenheimer stated that the hacking incident is isolated, and Coinbase has committed to compensating affected customers. The SEC's investigation is unrelated to the current disclosure but pertains to user growth metrics used by the company in the past.
Wisconsin Investment Board Liquidates $350 Million in Bitcoin Spot ETF Holdings
According to reports, the Wisconsin State Investment Board (SWIB) fully liquidated its holdings of approximately 6 million shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the first quarter of 2025, valued at about $350 million at the time. The institution had previously significantly increased its holdings in this ETF at the end of 2024, becoming one of the first state-level pension funds in the U.S. to invest in Bitcoin spot ETFs. This exit occurred against the backdrop of Bitcoin prices dropping about 12%.
At the same time, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala increased its IBIT holdings to approximately $409 million in the same quarter, indicating a divergence in institutional investors' allocation strategies towards Bitcoin ETFs.
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