Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Wasn't it said that the CPI drop could boost the probability of a rate cut in July? In the end, macro big shots all wore long faces and still didn't buy it, with the interest rate swap market giving a mere 35.9% chance. It's really frustrating; how can I believe this?

Inflation has been pushed up by tariffs, and prices are indeed rising, but the rebound has inertia. This transmission process cannot be stopped by anyone; if the next data doesn't provide solid evidence, there will be no rate cut in July, no matter what!

If we still can't see a rate cut, then we have to keep our fingers crossed regarding interest rates, and the earliest relief might not come until September. We're back to the old routine of two rate cuts; who hasn't experienced that?

Back to the market, for now, we can only watch and see. But I hear someone asking if there will be a big drop soon? I think there's no reason for that; there's no bad news, and it just looks like a fluctuation.

The net inflow of trading volume is tightening, which indicates that the script is still in progress; don't mess around. On the macro agenda, aside from Friday's inflation expectations and consumer confidence index, the rest is just a boring process.

Speaking of liquidity, this wave is not like someone who drank too much and wants to throw up quickly. Aside from 106k bleeding a bit, other places are still relatively scarce. Even if a major liquidation happens, it won't last long; if prices rise, it will trigger a new round of forced liquidations.

Once it hits above 106.6k, visible corrections will begin again. If liquidity doesn't follow, the bulls can only get caught in their own excitement. Conversely, the bears are also reluctant to enter the market, so we need to restrain our empty mindset. After all, the trend hasn't broken; continuing to be bullish is not unreasonable.

In simple terms, the current market is in a bullish pattern with range fluctuations, making room for the channel and allowing the upward space to expand. A false breakout can happen at any moment, and it will test above 106k again.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 105100

Second Resistance Level: 104600

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 103300

Second Support Level: 102300

Today's Suggestions:

During the short-term price correction, the 60 and 120-day moving averages can be used as short-term support zones. As long as the price can stabilize between 103k and 103.3k, the bulls still have a chance to continue.

If we want to see the bulls continue in the short term, it's best to build a base in the range of the first support level between 104.3k and 104.6k, and then break upwards. If this area is repeatedly tested without a breakthrough, we need to be cautious of the short-term decline risk brought by selling pressure above.

If we can successfully stand above 104.6k and stabilize in the range of the second resistance level between 104.6k and 105.1k, it will open up greater upward momentum. However, the probability of breaking below the first support level of 103.3k in the short term is relatively high.

But as long as we can hold and stabilize at the convergence of the 60 and 120-day moving averages, we can expect a short-term rebound. If the upward trend line and moving averages above are lost, the decline will extend to around the second support level of 102.3k. Near 102.3k, we can focus on opportunities for low buying.

5.14 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the range of 102300-103300, Target: 104600-105100

Short Entry Reference: Sell in batches in the range of 104600-105100, Target: 103300-102300

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot their long positions, tomorrow they summarize their short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. The bloggers worth paying attention to have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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