Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Reason Analysis: Why the Probability of Bitcoin Price Breaking $110,000 in May is Increasing”
Key Points:
According to analysis from Bitcoin Suisse, Bitcoin (BTC) has performed strongly because it can thrive in both risk-on and risk-off environments.
With a Sharpe ratio of 1.72, Bitcoin ranks just below gold, highlighting its characteristics as a mature asset that offers superior risk-adjusted returns.
A buyer-dominated market shows strong interest from both institutions and retail investors, which could trigger supply tightening and set new highs in May.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has broken the $100,000 mark for the first time since January, sparking market speculation that it will reach a new historical high above $110,000 in May. According to cryptocurrency custody service provider Bitcoin Suisse, the bullish momentum for BTC since the U.S. presidential election stems from its ability to thrive in both risk-on and risk-off environments.
The data from its "Industry Summary" report highlights Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio of up to 1.72, a key financial metric that measures risk-adjusted returns by dividing the asset's average return (minus the risk-free rate) by its volatility. A higher Sharpe ratio reflects better risk-adjusted returns, and in 2025, Bitcoin's strong score ranks just below gold, underscoring its increasingly mature characteristics as an asset.
Over the past two quarters, Bitcoin has demonstrated its exceptional dual investment value. In risk-off environments, it acts as a macro hedge, effectively benefiting from geopolitical tensions and de-dollarization concerns. In risk-on markets, it performs as a high-confidence growth asset, with over 86% of Bitcoin supply currently in profit.
As shown in the chart, since November 2024, Bitcoin has maintained positive returns across various key market phases. Dominic Weibei, head of the research department at Bitcoin Suisse, stated:
"In the current market environment, Bitcoin has become a Swiss Army knife of an asset. Whether the stock market is strong or bonds are collapsing, Bitcoin operates based on its supply and demand fundamentals, providing a win-win investment portfolio that traditional assets cannot match."
According to Cointelegraph, based on Fidelity Digital Assets' Q2 2025 signal report, Bitcoin is preparing for the next round of price increases in the "acceleration phase." Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright explained that Bitcoin has historically entered explosive price increase phases characterized by "high volatility accompanied by high returns."
On May 7, the cumulative difference in Bitcoin's 90-day spot active trading volume (CVD) turned buyer-dominated for the first time since March 2024. This indicator measures the net difference between market buy and sell volumes, reflecting the intensity of activity between buyers and sellers over a longer period.
This shift to a "buyer-dominated" active buying momentum is primarily driven by increased institutional investment interest and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, with over $4.5 billion in spot inflows since April 1.
This change in demand structure and Bitcoin's strong Sharpe ratio may enable Bitcoin to fully capitalize on the current market environment. As corporations and institutional investors rush to buy Bitcoin, a supply shortage could push prices above the $110,000 mark in May.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct thorough research before making decisions.
Related: Is Bitcoin (BTC) About to Enter a Parabolic Growth Phase? The Next Price Target for Bitcoin is $160,000.
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