"In the past two years (2023-2024), the logic behind Bitcoin's rise can be broken down into two parts: external macro drivers and internal funding power."

What Brother Guilin said is completely in line with my feelings. The external factors mainly revolve around macro narratives. Starting from early 2023, it was due to the Federal Reserve ending its rapid and significant interest rate hikes. Then, by mid-2023, it was because BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF, which caused investors to FOMO.

It wasn't until February 2024 that there began to be sustained and substantial buying of $BTC, which also established a bottom price for the current BTC. Personally, I have always believed that around $70,000 is the bottom in a non-recession scenario. I also roughly calculated the cost for ETF investors to be around $72,000.

Of course, the calculation is not precise, but the margin of error should not exceed 5%.

Then, starting in September 2024, there was the expectation that Trump could be elected president. Of course, in the first quarter of 2024, there was still the expectation of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which helped the market retreat.

By 2025, there is the expectation of Trump's BTC strategic reserves, and by April 2025, it is due to the expectation of a tariff suspension.

Overall, the current cryptocurrency market is still very closely following event-driven factors. Only in the absence of events (macro) does liquidity take center stage.

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