On April 7, 2025, the tariff policy of the Trump administration triggered uncertainty in the global economy, further exacerbating market panic. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in gold prices and the violent fluctuations in global stock markets diminished the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets, causing investor anxiety to spread to the cryptocurrency market. However, Bitcoin failed to act as a "safe haven" as it had in the past, instead facing a wave of sell-offs under multiple pressures. Is "Black Monday" coming?

K-Line Pattern Analysis

Bitcoin's price has significantly declined, dropping from about $83,000 yesterday to $77,111 today, showing a clear downward trend. The current K-line pattern displays a series of bearish signals:

• False breakout: After breaking through $85,000, it failed to maintain the upward trend, forming a long upper shadow bearish candle, indicating strong selling pressure in the market.
• Rapid decline: Since April 6, Bitcoin's price has experienced a sharp drop, especially after breaking the $80,000 support level, with the decline further intensifying as market panic quickly spread.

Large Capital Movements

Capital outflow: On-chain data shows that several large Bitcoin addresses have recently transferred a significant amount of Bitcoin to exchanges, which may indicate that institutional investors are avoiding risks and increasing liquidity preparations. This outflow of capital suggests that market sentiment remains pessimistic.

Safe-haven capital flow: Due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy, safe-haven capital may be more inclined towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold rather than Bitcoin, leading to greater selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Technical Indicator Analysis

• MACD: The current MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is in the negative zone, and both the DEA line and DIF line are showing a downward trend, indicating that downward pressure remains significant and the market has not yet bottomed out.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 28.69, close to the oversold zone. Although a rebound may occur in the short term, the market remains in a weak state.
• KDJ Indicator: The KDJ indicator shows that the D line is significantly below the K line, and the J line continues to decline, indicating that the market's pessimistic sentiment is intensifying, with potential for further downward movement.
• OBV (On-Balance Volume): The OBV indicator continues to decline, with trading volume shrinking and no signs of reversal, further exacerbating the expectation of a downturn.

Market Background Analysis

Impact of Trump's tariff policy: Trump's latest tariff policy has had a profound impact on the global market. The increase in tariffs has intensified uncertainty in international trade, leading to a deterioration in market sentiment. Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, has performed poorly in this macro environment, prompting investors to flee, resulting in a significant price drop.

Fluctuations in global stock markets and gold: Japanese stock futures triggered a circuit breaker, spot gold plummeted by 2%, falling below $3,000, and global safe-haven sentiment intensified. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures continued to plummet, with Nasdaq futures down nearly 4.6%. These factors indicate that market panic is escalating, and demand for risk assets has significantly decreased.

Today's Trend Prediction

Short-term downward pressure: Due to the continued low market sentiment and strong downward trends indicated by technical indicators, Bitcoin is expected to continue facing downward pressure today. If the price breaks below the $77,000 support level, it may further test the psychological level of $72,000.

Rebound risk: Considering that indicators like RSI and KDJ are approaching the oversold zone, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound in the market. However, the rebound potential is expected to be limited by strong resistance around $82,000. If Bitcoin cannot break through this resistance level, the rebound is unlikely to sustain.

Summary: Bitcoin is facing significant downward pressure, with technical factors, capital flows, and the global macro environment all exacerbating market pessimism. Trump's tariff policy and the violent fluctuations in global stock markets have further intensified the selling pressure on Bitcoin.

This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the stance or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.

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