Original｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）

Author｜Wenser（@wenser 2010 ）

The craze for meme coins is gradually fading, and what is coming is the surge in prediction market trading.

In March this year, the trading volume in prediction markets grew by over 10% year-on-year, exceeding $25.7 billion. Excluding geopolitical bets driven by the US-Iran situation, sports events like NCAA and betting on cryptocurrency fluctuations also contributed significantly to this sector. Meanwhile, applications such as cli, Skill, and AI Agent payment, along with API interfaces opened by Polymarket, have greatly facilitated AI Agent operations in prediction market trading. Thanks to Polymarket's currently open frontend interface, the newly updated V2 API interface, and various profitability rankings, the next popular entrepreneurial track in the market may well be prediction market AI copying bots.

Odaily Planet Daily reminds users that the following content is only a sharing of viewpoints and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Please be aware of the risks associated with tool usage or potential capital loss in follow-up investments.

Why do we need prediction market AI copying bots?

From a profitability perspective, according to a previous study titled "10 Truths About Prediction Markets: Only 3.14% of 1.72 Million Polymarket Addresses Are 'Real Winners'", as of last December, over 32% of the 1.72 million Polymarket addresses were profit-making players; by April this year, data from the prediction market data platform Parity indicated that the number of users on the Polymarket platform had increased to 2.43 million, yet the proportion of profit-making players remained high at 31%, including:

• Accounts with profits exceeding $1 million accounted for 0.0043%, or 104 individuals;
• Accounts with profits between $100,000 and $1 million accounted for 0.05%, or 1,165 individuals;
• Accounts with profits between $10,000 and $100,000 accounted for 0.4%, or 9,654 individuals;
• Accounts with profits between $1,000 and $10,000 accounted for 2.23%, or 54,127 individuals;
• Accounts with profits between $100 and $1,000 accounted for 5.24%, or 127,342 individuals;
• Accounts with profits between $0 and $100 accounted for 23.09%, or 561,422 individuals.

According to the official leaderboard from Polymarket, in the historical profitability rankings, the user Theo4 ranks first with a profit of $22.05 million, having previously wagered $8.5 million in the 2024 election betting and made over $13.7 million in profit.

It is evident that, although the wealth effect is not as shocking as that of the former meme coins, prediction markets indeed present a path to wealth.

As stated in the research conclusions from the study "10 Truths About Prediction Markets: Only 3.14% of 1.72 Million Polymarket Addresses Are 'Real Winners'", there are about 3.14% of "skilled winners" in prediction markets who, through their professional skills, keen news sensitivity, and other abilities, repeatedly identify the final factual outcomes in betting events, receiving direct rewards for their insights.

In a previous interview, Fengdubiying, recognized as the "first person in the Polymarket Chinese community," who achieved over 220 times returns in 25 days, had stated, “Polymarket does not restrict following; you can clearly see the final winners and top holders in betting events.”

Moreover, unlike meme coins which require considerations of whether one may become a whale or the "exit liquidity" for first movers, betting in prediction markets focuses on the accurate prediction of event outcomes, with the opposition being the "counterpart holding Yes/No chips" that contrasts with one's own understanding.

Of course, unlike the risks associated with meme coin developers fleeing or dumping, the risks involved in using prediction market copying bots are also real, ranging from a game's outcome, an event, or a political election, during which there may be many fluctuations in probabilities, with surprises of unexpected eliminations, event reversals, or dark horses emerging; having large profits and high win rates does not mean that every follow-up will be a guaranteed win.

What is the core competitiveness of prediction market AI copying bots?

Having discussed the potential and market demand for prediction market AI copying bots, the next step is naturally to explore the specific functionalities and evaluation criteria for these tools.

In my view, the core functionalities of prediction market AI copying bots can be categorized into the following three aspects:

First, is a sufficient number of "high win rate addresses." Excluding monthly and weekly profit rankings across different periods, and in different sectors such as politics, sports, and esports, prediction market AI copying bots do not differ significantly from meme coin copying bots; the key remains a collection of prediction market addresses or professional players that can be cross-verified and boast high win rates. “If one lacks insight, they must know whom to follow,” underlines that there must be individuals worth following. Data screening is crucial in this respect, as labeling high-win-rate players accurately and to a referenceable standard is essential.

Second, is a rapid follow-up strategy. Whether it’s a bottom-buying by high-win-rate players or timely selling or waiting for event outcomes, there remains cost differentials in following the bets in prediction markets; thus, speed of follow-up is a core function of the tool. Prediction market AI copying bots can also formulate different sell strategies for user selection.

Third, is efficient event screening for betting. Similar to finding that "golden dog" among the diverse meme coin market, a foundational requirement in prediction markets is whether one can select from a plethora of betting events a batch with shorter time limits, moderate odds, and sufficient liquidity; this is a functionality that copying tools must consider. Naturally, it’s even better if they can perform screenings based on total betting amount, high-win-rate player tags, and settlement rule explanations among other aspects.

A brief overview of existing prediction market copying products: Polybot, Kreo, Chance

Polybot: An automated betting tool born for airdrops

Official account: https://x.com/TradePolyBot

This tool emphasizes the concept of "serving Polymarket token POLY airdrop interactions," allowing users to set up automated trading with it, achieving effects like "arbitrage strategy configured in a minute, running 24/7 automatically."

Official promotional image

Kreo: Follow-up tool launched by an individual developer

Official account: https://x.com/kreoapp

Launched by former Xiaomi Group engineer and independent developer wuli, Kreo boasts of speed and multiple features. According to the latest tweet from the official account, the current version has added functionalities such as: follow-up task manager; customized profit and loss sharing materials in video and image formats; bulk editing of follow-up tasks; real-time display of cryptocurrency fluctuation markets; prevention of duplicate follow-ups; automatic follow-up screening for alliance sports events; and view the top 50 bettors in cryptocurrency fluctuation events. According to the official bot interface information, the current user count of this tool has surpassed 13,000.

Official Bot page

Chance: A prediction market aggregation platform

Official account: https://x.com/Chance_

This platform's major advantage is its aggregation of several prediction market platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Predict.fun, along with certain smart money, calendar, and analysis functions. Notably, the platform is currently in an early testing version, which may have Bugs or other risks; Odaily Planet Daily advises users to use it cautiously, avoiding excessive investments or paying attention to safety risks.

Official trading tool page

Official page

Conclusion: Regardless of bull or bear, those who sell shovels will always make money

Once, during the meme coin boom driven by pump.fun, bots such as gmgn.ai, abot, and Axiom made a fortune; now, amid the "big year" of prediction markets, prediction market copying bots may experience a surge during a series of popular sporting events and political occurrences like the World Cup. If there are project parties in need of media promotion or business cooperation, feel free to contact Odaily Planet Daily, let us all contribute to the construction of the crypto world together.

Recommended reading:

Earn $100,000 in 10 days, OpenClaw's practical experience interview in prediction markets

Cross-chain, copying, lightning orders… six aggregators to help you lead in prediction markets

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