With Donald Trump steering the U.S. government, uncertainty looms over the economic trajectory for the coming year. On one hand, his administration has pursued deregulation and tax cuts; on the other, it has intensified a trade conflict through tariff policies targeting China, the U.K., Canada, Mexico, and beyond. This has unsettled Wall Street and sent ripples through crypto markets, despite optimistic developments such as the introduction of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).

Earlier this week, economic projections heightened concerns over a potential downturn in the U.S., and Trump did not dismiss the possibility of a recession. He acknowledged that disruptions may lie ahead. Following the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which signaled a slowdown in inflation, Trump told the press that people are unaware of what’s coming, adding that “markets are gonna soar.” Whether that prediction holds remains uncertain, as growing skepticism suggests the U.S. economic engine is on an unsustainable track—so much so that even the newly introduced DOGE will not trim enough excess to alter its course.

Given all this, despite Trump’s policies and DOGE’s introduction, the possibility of a recession looms over the year ahead. Should that scenario unfold, the U.S. Federal Reserve may feel compelled to intervene in an attempt to “save the day.” In fact, a number of economists and analysts anticipate such a move. With this in mind, we turned to a broad selection of 11 distinct AI chatbots, challenging them to predict whether the U.S. central bank will resort to QE.

The following prompt was presented to this diverse array of AI models:

The U.S. economy, as of March 2025, is expanding at a more measured pace, contending with pressures from tariffs, inflation, and a growing likelihood of recession. bitcoin (BTC) hovers near $83,000, exhibiting pronounced downward momentum this month. Leading U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, are trailing behind their global counterparts. Meanwhile, gold maintains its position as a safeguard against uncertainty, trading at $2,932 per ounce amid ongoing economic turbulence. Given these conditions, as a specialist in markets and macroeconomics, you must determine whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will resort to quantitative easing (QE) in 2025. Support your conclusion with a well-reasoned, 2-3 sentence explanation.

Qwen 2.5 Max with reasoning abilities:

Grok 3 with reasoning abilities:

Based on the economic conditions in March 2025, where the U.S. economy is growing slowly, facing pressures from tariffs and inflation, and showing a rising risk of recession—coupled with underperforming stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, and gold’s strength at $2,932 per ounce as a safe haven—the Federal Reserve is likely to implement quantitative easing (QE) in 2025. The pronounced downward momentum of Bitcoin near $83,000 further reflects a risk-off sentiment, suggesting economic weakness that the Fed may address through QE to stimulate growth and mitigate recession risks. Despite inflationary pressures, the Fed is likely to prioritize preventing a downturn over controlling inflation, especially if conventional tools like interest rate cuts prove insufficient under these turbulent conditions.

Deepseek R1 with reasoning abilities:

Microsoft Copilot:

Given the current economic conditions, it is likely that the U.S. Federal Reserve will resort to quantitative easing (QE) in 2025. The combination of inflationary pressures, a growing likelihood of recession, and the downward momentum in key financial markets suggests that the Fed may need to inject liquidity into the economy to stabilize it and support growth. Additionally, the Fed’s commitment to maintaining market stability and flexibility in monetary policy further supports the possibility of QE.

ChatGPT o3-mini with reasoning abilities:

Claude 3.7 Sonnet with reasoning abilities:

Based on general economic principles and historical Fed behavior, the Federal Reserve would likely implement QE in 2025 if faced with a combination of declining economic growth, pronounced market stress, and limited effectiveness of conventional interest rate cuts. The threshold for QE implementation has historically been high, generally reserved for severe economic contractions rather than just moderate slowdowns.

Mistral AI Le Chat:

Given the current economic conditions in March 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to resort to quantitative easing (QE) this year. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet through quantitative tightening (QT) and has indicated that it will continue this process until at least early 2025. The Fed’s focus remains on managing inflation and maintaining stable employment levels, and it has recently cut interest rates to support these goals. However, the Fed has not signaled an intention to resume QE, as it typically uses this tool when interest rates are near zero and additional monetary stimulus is needed. With interest rates currently above zero and the Fed cautious about further rate cuts, the likelihood of QE in 2025 is low. The Fed’s balance sheet has been shrinking, and it has been reducing its bond holdings, which aligns with a policy of tightening rather than easing.

Pi AI:

Gemini 2.0 Flash:

Given the described economic conditions—measured growth, tariff pressures, persistent inflation, and rising recession risks—the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to consider, if not implement, quantitative easing (QE) in 2025. The combination of slowing economic growth and potential recessionary pressures would necessitate Fed intervention to stimulate the economy, and with inflation already factored in, the Fed’s focus would shift towards preventing a deeper downturn through asset purchases and liquidity injections.

ChatGPT 4.5:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to resort to quantitative easing (QE) in 2025 if economic conditions continue deteriorating, notably if inflationary pressures subside alongside increased recession risks. Given bitcoin’s downward momentum, weaker U.S. stock performance relative to global markets, and ongoing tariff-induced economic strain, the Fed may employ QE as a preemptive measure to stimulate growth and stabilize markets amid rising uncertainty.

ChatGPT o1 with reasoning abilities:

As AI-generated forecasts reveal a mixed outlook, the Federal Reserve’s course remains uncertain. While some models foresee QE as a necessary intervention, others argue inflationary concerns will keep the Fed restrained. Economic turbulence continues to shape expectations, but whether policymakers opt for liquidity injections or alternative measures will depend on evolving market conditions, political pressures, and the depth of any potential downturn.

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