Author: Luke, Mars Finance

Introduction

On February 17, the AI-powered Web3 search engine Kaito AI announced the completion of the KAITO Yaps snapshot, followed closely by the Genesis NFT snapshot. In this long-anticipated wealth distribution, on-chain analyst Caneleo discovered that Kaito has deployed 1 billion tokens on the Base chain, with 33.3% of the share potentially allocated for airdrops.

In other words, 333 million $KAITO tokens are about to be distributed to NFT holders and Yap contributors. Based on Kaito's previous funding round valuation of $87.5 million, the theoretical total value of the airdrop, calculated at a 33.3% airdrop ratio, is nearly $28.875 million.

Kaito has designed a dual-layer airdrop system:

• Genesis NFT holders: 1,500 NFTs will share 15% of the airdrop pool (approximately $4.32 million), with each NFT expected to receive $2,880 in $KAITO;
• Yap contributors: The remaining 85% ($24.555 million) will be distributed based on points, estimating each Yap's value at about $13 based on the current release rate.

As the market became aware of the scale and return rate of this airdrop, FOMO sentiment quickly intensified. Various "yield farming" armies rushed to the leaderboard, and Kaito's tweets were flooded on X (formerly Twitter), marking the official start of a Web3 version of the "Airdrop Hunger Games."

Why has Kaito quickly become the most notable airdrop project in Web3 after EigenLayer?

Valuation expectations ignite FOMO: Kaito was valued at $87.5 million in its Series A funding round in June 2023. Benchmarking against Berachain, which saw an 8-fold increase in valuation post-funding, if Kaito follows a similar path, the airdrop value could reach a 10-fold amplification.

Ecosystem leverage amplifies returns: Kaito employs a "Yap to Earn" + "Genesis NFT" dual points system, allowing NFT holders to potentially earn airdrop rewards exceeding $13,000.

Top-tier venture capital backing: Institutions like Sequoia Capital and Dragonfly have entered the fray, enhancing project endorsement and significantly boosting market confidence.

Amidst the pervasive FOMO atmosphere, Kaito is not just an AI search engine; it resembles an imminent erupting Web3 wealth volcano.

Who is Kaito? — The "AI Rainmaker" of the Web3 Information Empire

If EigenLayer is the hottest "liquidity re-staking" project this year, Kaito is the pioneer in the information finance (InfoFi) sector, aiming to become the Google + Bloomberg Terminal of the crypto world.

Founded by former Citadel quantitative trader Yu Hu, Kaito focuses on solving the problem of information fragmentation in the Web3 world. Faced with vast amounts of scattered data from Twitter, Discord, governance forums, and more, Kaito integrates this information through AI large models to create MetaSearch—a smart search engine tailored for crypto investors.

Unlike traditional search engines, Kaito not only indexes various data sources in Web3 but also generates in-depth analyses using ChatGPT technology, allowing investors to obtain market intelligence with a single click and accurately capture on-chain Alpha opportunities. Therefore, Kaito is also referred to as the "Web3 version of Alpha Hunter."

In the past two years, Kaito has performed impressively in the capital markets, attracting the attention of top-tier venture capital:

• Seed round (February 2023): Led by Dragonfly, raising $5.3 million, with a valuation of $40 million.
• Series A (June 2023): Led by Superscrypt and Spartan, raising $5.5 million, with a valuation skyrocketing to $87.5 million.
• Growth turning point (June 2024): Kaito announced its first profitable quarter, transitioning from "burning cash to start a business" to becoming a self-sufficient AI giant.

The investment from top-tier venture capital not only signifies recognition of Kaito's business model but also further strengthens its ecological value, providing robust support for future token economic models.

Kaito is not just a search engine; it has also built a complete information economy system. Through the "Yap to Earn" model, users can earn Yap points in the following ways:

• Content contribution: Posting on Twitter, tagging @KaitoAI, and sharing crypto market analysis.
• Social expansion: Inviting friends to participate and using multi-account tools (like MoreLogin) to enhance point acquisition efficiency.
• NFT empowerment: Holding Genesis NFTs (minting price 0.1 ETH) can increase airdrop weight, with the potential to earn token rewards of up to $13,000.

This mechanism directly converts information attention into on-chain assets, making Kaito not just a tool but a platform that can be "mined."

Valuation Game: The Value Code of the Airdrop Feast

In Kaito's airdrop frenzy, Yap points and Genesis NFTs have become the focal points of market attention, and discussions surrounding their value have intensified. Multiple analytical models attempt to predict the reasonable valuation of Yap and NFTs, with conclusions under different assumptions causing market expectations to evolve from rational gaming to a FOMO frenzy.

1. Fund-Driven Model: Theoretical Extremes Derived from FDV Formula

Valuation in the crypto market has always been based on narratives and capital flows, so the first model directly starts from Kaito's future fully diluted valuation (FDV) to attempt to calculate the potential value of Yap.

KOLRen_gmi uses the formula FDV × airdrop ratio / total circulation, assuming:

• Kaito's FDV is $1 billion;
• 30% of tokens are used for airdrops;
• The Yapper plan runs for 90 days, releasing a total of 2.275 million Yaps.

Based on this, the model calculates the value of Yap to be $131, far exceeding mainstream market expectations.

However, this deduction has obvious flaws:

• Additional airdrops for NFTs are not considered, which may affect the actual earnings of Yappers;
• The assumption of Yap's total supply is overly optimistic, as actual circulation may be influenced by factors such as exchange listings and project distribution pace.

Nevertheless, this model still provides an extreme value under optimistic market expectations, offering theoretical support for the attractiveness of Kaito's airdrop.

2. NFT Voting Power Model: The Game of Web3 Community Governance

Compared to a simple FDV deduction, KOLDeFiTeddy2020 adopts a more Kaito-ecology-aligned NFT voting power model.

In Kaito's design, Genesis NFTs grant holders greater say in ecological governance, and these NFTs also carry airdrop weight. Therefore, the model assumes:

• The market price of a single Genesis NFT is 9.3 ETH;
• The corresponding voting weight is 1,162 Yaps;

From this, it calculates that the theoretical value of each Yap is about $22.

This method starts from the market pricing of NFTs, attempting to establish a relative valuation relationship between Yap and NFTs, but its limitations include:

• ETH price volatility risk, as the market price of NFTs may be affected by liquidity;
• Voting power weight does not necessarily directly reflect token value, and the assignment of governance power remains opaque.

Although the values derived from this model are much lower than those from the FDV deduction method, it provides a new perspective on understanding Yap's valuation from the NFT ecological angle.

3. Competitive Benchmarking Model: The Comparability of Kaito and Hyperliquid

In the Web3 track, valuation often depends on how the market benchmarks similar projects. KOLSteve_4P uses a comparative approach, drawing parallels between Kaito and Hyperliquid to derive a valuation range that aligns more with market logic.

From the perspective of PMF (Product-Market Fit):

• Hyperliquid: Based on a mature decentralized exchange (DEX) model, optimizing a validated trading market;
• Kaito: Exploring a new paradigm in information finance (InfoFi), which has yet to form a solid market demand loop.

In terms of comparable valuation:

• Hyperliquid can benchmark against dYdX, Drift, and other DEXs, with market recognition being relatively clear;
• Kaito currently has no direct competitors, with the closest case possibly being Friend.tech, but the latter's social finance model has significant flaws.

From the perspective of token value capture:

• Hyperliquid has a clear token burn mechanism, which helps maintain long-term value;
• Kaito's revenue distribution mechanism has yet to close the loop, leaving its token value with considerable uncertainty.

Based on these factors, this model suggests that Kaito's token revenue expectations will not exceed those of Hyperliquid, and thus the valuation ceiling for Yap may be far below some extreme market predictions.

4. Realistic Valuation Model: Deriving Market Expectations from Funding Data

Compared to theoretical deductions, the market prefers real data support. Kaito's Series A funding valuation is $87.5 million, and combining the announced 33.3% token airdrop plan, we can derive a more reasonable value range:

• NFT valuation deduction: The total cost of 1,500 Genesis NFTs is $540,000, calculated at an 8-fold increase based on funding valuation, with a total airdrop expected to be about $4.32 million, making each NFT worth about $2,880;
• Yap points valuation deduction: The remaining $24.555 million will be allocated to Yap point holders, estimating that 1 Yap is worth about $13 based on the current release rate.

However, funding valuation is not the final market pricing, so this model further uses Story Protocol and Berachain as benchmark objects to derive a reasonable market range:

• Story Protocol: Valuation amplified by 16 times, current FDV approximately $1.73 billion. Based on its market performance, Kaito's NFT airdrop value could be $2,218-$2,880, and Yap value could be $10-$13.
• Berachain: Valuation amplified by 8 times, current FDV approximately $2.8 billion. If Kaito follows a similar path, NFT airdrop value could be $5,357, and Yap value could be $24.

In an extreme FOMO market sentiment, Berachain's highest FDV once reached $6.75 billion. If Kaito replicates this model, its NFT could soar to $13,000, and Yap value could surge to $59.

Conclusion: The Variables of Valuation and Market Frenzy

From the four models above, we can see the different possibilities for Kaito's airdrop value:

Ultimately, the actual value of Kaito's airdrop will depend on the following key factors:

1. Market feedback after the token launch: If liquidity is sufficient, the valuation may rise significantly;
2. The project's long-term development strategy: If the InfoFi ecosystem can close the loop, the token capture value will be more stable;
3. The evolution of market sentiment: The duration of the FOMO atmosphere will affect short-term value fluctuations.

It is certain that Kaito is stirring up a new airdrop storm in the crypto market, and how this storm will conclude remains to be seen by the market itself.

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