Author: Haotian

Before the next wave of AI Agent hype arrives, ordinary retail investors need to "painfully reform" their investment mindset. Personal suggestions are for reference only:

1) Fomo chasing "fast-track" projects: Projects that can be fast-tracked upon launch are either highly controlled by the developers or have early conspiratorial groups seizing the tokens. In such cases, Fomo chasing the price increase is likely to contribute to short-term liquidity (charging at the peak).

Even if the project has sustained popularity with subsequent phases, the psychological tests and opportunity costs faced by most people are not proportional. It is better to wait for the next wave of early Alpha opportunities or to find potential projects that have not yet been discovered for their value.

2) Investing purely based on developer qualifications, GitHub repos, and project narratives: For on-chain investment projects, without the "real money" backing of VCs, the qualifications of developers and the quality of GitHub repositories become the main reference benchmarks. However, don't forget that developer qualifications and GitHub stars can easily be inflated. If something truly has value, it’s fine to wait until the market Fomo kicks in before getting in.

Learning from the previous major reshuffle, at least one should add a high barrier to entry for project builds in these value assessment factors. After all, the starting technical and operational thresholds for valuable projects cannot be low.

3) Expecting a valuation to be locked in at $300-500 million: It’s important to know that the opportunities for discovering Alpha on-chain are significant because they eliminate the upstream exit pressure from VCs and early participants. If you Fomo in and rush into projects valued at over $50 million or even $300-500 million, it is quite irrational.

Unless you believe that a healthy value of $500 million can emerge on-chain in the short term, or you are certain that this project has a $3-5 billion potential. Clearly, the short-term landscape for AI Agent on-chain is not mature; there is only one @aixbt_agent application scenario that has landed, but it still needs to enhance its commercial imagination. In short, do not bring the previous cycle's CEX token valuation standards of $500 million to $5 billion onto the chain.

4) Diversifying holdings without understanding the allocations: The logic of diversification is to concentrate tokens on those with valuable support as much as possible, so that you can have confidence to endure significant drops and pullbacks until the rebound. If you have not researched the assets in hand and there are many PVP assets, you are likely to suffer significant losses due to an excess of worthless assets, and the key is that you may lose confidence in the sector and be persuaded to exit.

Appropriate diversification and timely reallocation may not capture larger profits, but they can stabilize the opportunities that remain for a longer time.

5) Always "focusing" on a certain token: At this early stage of the AI Agent industry, certainty is weak, and there are many asset targets. Among valuable assets, there will inevitably be a large number of worthless assets mixed in. If you accidentally go all-in on a worthless asset, the loss of a diamond-hand mindset means losing not only the principal but also other better opportunities in the sector.

In the early stages of the sector, trading with a "player mentality" is definitely not wrong. Of course, being able to continuously elevate your aesthetic and establish your core value token position during the process is even better. After all, being a player for too long can also be uncomfortable.

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