Important News on February 11:
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony today.
- A whale transferred 56,909 ETH from Binance, worth $151.634 million.
- Ethereum is approaching an extreme oversold zone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to a historical low.
- CZ: BNB Chain is undergoing an upgrade, with more information to be released soon.
- A court in Jiangsu, China, ruled on a virtual currency lending dispute, determining that Tether (USDT) does not have legal repayment status.
Conveying the way of trading, enjoying a wise life.
Will Ethereum plummet to $500? This is a response from the founder of AIXBT on Twitter. So what will Ethereum's trend be? Today, we will review Ethereum's price movements from on-chain data, fundamentals, and technical perspectives.
First, let's look at our trading strategy. In our trading strategy, we analyzed the price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin will oscillate widely between $90K and $110K; in the short term, it will oscillate narrowly between $96K and $100K. If it breaks above $100K, the price may approach $110K. Currently, it is still oscillating within this range.
As for Ethereum's price movements, we remind that as long as it stays above $2,620, it remains in an upward trend. As long as this level holds, we can continue to hold. In our contract class, we also remind that Ethereum can be entered with a long position above $2,680, and it has already been held for two days; as long as there are no stop-loss reminders, we can still hold Ethereum.
Where will Ethereum's price ultimately go? According to Jiu Ge's judgment, we should pay close attention to Ethereum, as it is very likely to return to the $3,030 level. This means there is still an upward space of $300. Whether it can show a better trend will depend on the subsequent movements and the breakout situation at $3,030.
After reviewing the strategy, let's see how Ethereum's on-chain data performs. The daily outflow of Ethereum reached 224,400 ETH, a new high in 23 months. This behavior is considered a sign of investors' confidence in holding Ethereum long-term, reducing the possibility of large-scale sell-offs in the future. This point is also very important.
Secondly, a whale withdrew 56,909 ETH from Binance, worth $151 million. This whale holds far more Ethereum than this.
From the data, this whale's total assets have exceeded $600 million. Its main uses are in the DEFI series, including deposits, staking, bond yields, and lending, among other distributed asset combinations. This whale is quite powerful, and its withdrawal of such a large amount of Ethereum from Binance indicates its optimistic outlook on future price movements.
This is the performance of on-chain data, and we remain optimistic about Ethereum's price movements in the near future, provided that Bitcoin must stabilize above $91.5K and not fall below it.
From a fundamental perspective, gold and the US dollar index continue to rise, especially gold, which is experiencing a strong increase. As for Bitcoin's market cap ratio, it remains roughly the same as yesterday. Bitcoin's exchange wallet also remains stable compared to yesterday.
The fear index has increased to 47. We know that if the fear index is at 50, it indicates neither fear nor greed, sitting in a neutral position. If it deviates from this area, it can also serve as a signal judgment standard.
At the same time, we see that the altcoin season index is at 47. If this index reaches above 50, it indicates that 50% of altcoins will outperform the market. It has not yet fully reached this level.
In 2021, during August and January, this altcoin season index steadily rose, marking the beginning of an altcoin season. Currently, it is in the mid-range, indicating that the altcoin season has not fully started. The main reason is still that Ethereum has not performed well, leading to this result.
This is Ethereum's performance in recent years. We just mentioned why Ethereum may strengthen in the near future, and we emphasize that $3,030 is a very critical resistance level. Let's conduct a detailed analysis of Ethereum from a technical perspective.
Looking back at the technical level, on the weekly chart, we find that after Ethereum retraced to $2,110, which is an upward trend line, it stopped declining and closed with a long lower shadow candlestick. This candlestick has similarities to the one from August last year.
Above this candlestick is a long bearish candlestick, and this area also has a long bearish candlestick, both of which broke below the 30-day moving average. Jiu Ge's view is that it is very likely to consolidate above the trend line until one day it suddenly breaks upward or downward.
Ethereum's current price is $2,700, still consolidating above $2,620. Therefore, Ethereum may continue to push upward for another one to two months.
What is the first high point of the rebound? It is near the 30-day moving average, at the $3,030 level. We know that this moving average has a pulling effect; if it deviates too far, it will inevitably lead to a strong upward rebound.
From a medium to long-term perspective, the RSI indicator has also shown divergence. During the divergence before the end of the bull market in 2021, a similar divergence occurred.
So does the divergence in Ethereum here mean it will enter a bear market? Isn't Ethereum currently in a bear market? In summary, it has oscillated between $4,000 and $2,100 with a 50% amplitude, and Ethereum's performance is somewhat disappointing.
In the coming time, with the approach of the Prague upgrade, the probability of Ethereum pushing upward is gradually increasing. We remember that for Ethereum, its important resistance level is at the RSI indicator's position of 58. We form a descending trend line here; only by breaking this descending trend line, similar to what happened in 2022, can we confirm the bottom.
So when it rebounds upward, if it cannot continue to break upward, it may continue to pull back until one day it suddenly breaks the descending trend line, confirming the arrival of Ethereum's true bear market bottom.
Currently, Ethereum is rebounding after holding above $2,110. We pay attention to its RSI indicator under the pressure of the descending trend line, or the pressure at $3,030, as well as the breakout situation of this line. This is the weekly level performance of Ethereum's price.
From the daily level performance, Ethereum's RSI indicator is still under the pressure of the trend line. At this point, during the rebound process, it is very likely to encounter the RSI indicator's descending trend line near $3,000; only after breaking through will it welcome a better rebound result. We can also see that the distance between the 30-day moving average and Ethereum's trend line is also considerable. Therefore, we say that the moving average has a pulling effect; if the deviation is too large, it will inevitably rebound upward.
With the positive fundamental news approaching the end of the month, Ethereum, Jiu Ge's view is that it will continue to rise, but in the medium to long term, we cannot be certain. Therefore, the short cycle and the medium to long term are not necessarily the same in performance.
What about Ethereum on the 4-hour level? In the 4-hour level, we can see that Ethereum's price is currently stabilizing near $2,620, and it has formed two significant doji candlesticks with some volume, indicating that there is considerable buying power at this level, and there is a serious disagreement in opinions during the decline.
At this time, it is conducive to stopping the decline and pulling upward. In the 1-hour level, we can see that it formed a long bullish candlestick in the morning, and this long candlestick also shows some volume, which is relatively larger than the previous period.
During the subsequent decline, it also decreased in volume. Therefore, at this point, Ethereum has once again stood above $2,700. Next, Ethereum will push upward, and its first resistance level is $2,790. What is the key level above? We can connect a trend line from this point to that point, and you will find that as long as Ethereum can break through $2,720, this position will open up for further upward movement.
Thus, Ethereum is currently at a very critical short-term resistance level. This is the price trend of Ethereum. At the same time, in addition to Ethereum, we should also pay attention to PEPE.
PEPE is a coin that we emphasize in our spot class, and its current trend is receiving relatively good support. Therefore, Jiu Ge's view is that PEPE is very likely to continue pushing upward.
As for support and resistance levels, the support level is just below 1,000, while the resistance level from the daily level is at the 30-day moving average, around 1,290. This concludes today's analysis.
To learn more, you can follow our Binance media account [Crypto Academy No. 7] or contact our assistant to join the VIP group. You can also gain access to our bottom-fishing and top-selling column content by sharing, commenting, and liking.
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