During the online discussion on Saturday, many readers asked if it is too late to participate in AI agents now.
I believe it entirely depends on the investor's judgment of the AI agent sector and their personal investment style.
From my perspective, the development of AI agents is still in the early to mid-stage, and there is still some distance to the peak.
There are three main reasons:
First, the AI agent sector no longer resembles its early days, as there are already tokens with market values in the billions, and not just one. This indicates that a significant head group effect has emerged in the sector.
Second, the overall cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its peak. Since the major market has not peaked, there is still room for further development in niche segments, especially in newly emerging areas like AI agents.
I maintain my previous view on the peak of the entire cryptocurrency market: I estimate that this round of market peak may arrive between March and August of this year, and the risks will increase after August.
Therefore, the peak of the AI agent market in this round may also occur between March and August, but the specific timing is difficult to determine.
Finally, looking specifically at the AI agent niche, the current development is still vibrant, with new concepts, ideas, and technologies emerging every day.
For example, among the popular framework projects in the ecosystem, in addition to the existing framework projects continuing to develop, a newly emerged project @hyperfy_io has just come out recently, and its token's market value has already reached $200 million.
The explosive momentum of a single project does indicate some bubble potential, but on the other hand, it also shows that technological innovation continues to emerge.
Moreover, in several niche areas where multiple AI agents can be well integrated (such as DeFi, gaming, etc.), there has yet to be a particularly prominent leading project. I have been looking forward to seeing highlights in these niche areas.
Therefore, considering these factors, I believe there will still be new highlights and opportunities ahead.
When it comes to specific project investments, there are still distinctions among various categories of projects within the AI agent ecosystem:
For instance, leading projects like Virtual and AI16Z already have high valuations. Virtual's market value has exceeded $4 billion, and AI16Z's market value has surpassed $2 billion.
In previous articles, I estimated that this round of the AI agent sector might see several leading projects with market values reaching $10 billion.
If we benchmark against $10 billion, while Virtual and AI16Z still have room for growth, their potential is already limited.
Excluding these obvious leading projects, other sub-category AI agents (such as functional AI agents) still have considerable space. For example, aside from a few AI agents (like AIXBT) that have a clear advantage, I believe that even if other AI agents have advantages, there is still a possibility of being surpassed in the future. Additionally, new projects are emerging rapidly every day.
This all indicates that the niche sector still has significant potential to explore.
In such a situation, the personal style of the investor becomes very important.
If an investor is very cautious, they may think that the potential of leading projects is limited and that niche projects are hard to judge, so they might choose not to participate.
If an investor is willing to take risks, they may still want to engage in this sector.
I think both decisions are valid. Regardless of which one, the most important thing is to avoid feelings of anxiety and not to feel like they have missed an opportunity.
I will continue to actively participate in the AI agent sector while managing risks effectively.
Currently, my focus is mainly on niche sectors, looking for new potential projects. I will pay particular attention to projects with a total market value between $10 million and $30 million, trying to find suitable and promising projects within this range.
Some investors have also asked: Is it possible to switch holdings, exchanging token A for AI agent token B?
I believe this still depends on the investor's own assessment of the potential of these two tokens. If the investor is confident that B has greater potential than A, they can switch, as the entire AI agent sector is currently the most promising sector; if they are hesitant, unclear, or uncertain, I would advise against switching.
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