Blackrock Investment Institute (BII), a research division of Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, published a report titled “Sizing bitcoin in portfolios” on Thursday. The report examines bitcoin’s distinct characteristics, its potential to diversify returns, and the risks tied to its high volatility. BII emphasizes that bitcoin’s role in a portfolio hinges on its broader adoption over time, which could unlock significant return potential.

“The potential for future widespread adoption is thus central to the investment case for bitcoin. We believe it is the period leading up to large-scale adoption where the biggest future return potential could lie,” the report notes.

A key recommendation in the report is a 1%-2% allocation in a traditional 60-40 stock-bond portfolio, drawing comparisons to the “magnificent 7” mega-cap tech stocks: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The report details:

So how can investors think about a bitcoin allocation? Bitcoin cannot be compared to traditional assets. But from a portfolio construction perspective, the ‘magnificent 7’ group of mostly mega cap tech stocks is a useful starting point.

These magnificent 7 stocks represent single holdings with a substantial share of portfolio risk. The report highlights that a 1%-2% bitcoin allocation contributes a similar risk level, balancing its potential for diversified returns while avoiding outsized volatility. Emphasizing disciplined allocation, the report explains: “Going beyond that would sharply increase bitcoin’s share of the overall portfolio risk.”

BII also discusses bitcoin’s potential transformation as adoption grows. The report acknowledges its appeal for seamless, decentralized, cross-border transactions and its immunity to government interference, yet cautions against overestimating its stability. While widespread adoption may reduce volatility, it could also limit bitcoin’s high-growth prospects, BII stated, adding:

Looking ahead, should bitcoin indeed achieve broad adoption, it could potentially also become less risky – but at that point it might no longer have a structural catalyst for further sizable price increases.

“The case for a long-term holding may then be less clear-cut, and investors may prefer to use it tactically to hedge against specific risks, similar to gold,” the report concludes.

Blackrock has emerged as a prominent supporter of bitcoin, marking a significant shift in its stance on digital assets. Its spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), launched early this year, has quickly become one of the largest holders of bitcoin. CEO Larry Fink, who previously expressed skepticism about cryptocurrencies, now views BTC as a “legitimate financial instrument” and equates it to digital gold. Blackrock’s strategic embrace of bitcoin underscores the asset manager’s role in mainstreaming cryptocurrencies as an integral part of global investment portfolios.

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