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Will the peak of Bitcoin occur in 2025?

CN
道说Crypto
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1 year ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

"Will there suddenly be a major turnaround in domestic policies one day in the future?"

This is a question left by a reader at the end of an article.

Several years ago, I also wondered whether our country would suddenly make a major shift in cryptocurrency policy in the coming years.

However, over the years, as my observations have become more detailed and in-depth, I feel that this previous thought was perhaps too naive.

We have all heard the saying: "Science knows no borders." I used to extend this saying to the field of technology, understanding it as technology also having no borders.

But now I believe that technology has clear borders.

In terms of cryptocurrency technology, certain inherent functions (such as permissionless access, resistance to censorship, and global free flow) are inherently unsuitable for certain types of countries.

In these countries, even if cryptocurrency technology can experience a period of growth, it is only because its inherent functions have not yet triggered the boundaries. Once it triggers those boundaries, its growth process will inevitably come to a halt.

Under certain unchanging conditions, hoping for a major reversal in the development of cryptocurrency technology in such countries is actually wishful thinking.

If we set aside national sentiments and look purely at the characteristics of cryptocurrency technology, it seems that only certain countries in the world are truly the most suitable for cryptocurrency technology and assets.

Because in those countries, there has always been a strong vigilance against overly powerful centralized forces since their establishment. It is this vigilance that has formed two types of values:

One type believes that a large government is necessary to lead the country forward;

The other type believes that a small government is fundamental to stimulating creativity among the populace and creating a bright future for the nation.

The interplay of these two value systems has jointly advanced the progress of a country.

And what cryptocurrency technology precisely needs is the objective environment created by the second type of value system.

Although the second type of value system does not always dominate the country's progress, it always has the opportunity to play a role for a period of time and create a relaxed and free environment during that time.

Once cryptocurrency technology encounters such an environment, the opportunity for rapid growth arises. And if a country in such an environment also has a strong financial foundation, a superior market environment, and outstanding technological talent, it would be difficult for that country not to become a global hub for cryptocurrency.

In a recent series of announcements by Trump, we can clearly see some substantial moves regarding cryptocurrency policy.

For example, there are reports that he may establish a government department specifically responsible for cryptocurrency affairs.

Moreover, whether it is him, his vice president, or already announced cabinet members (such as the Secretary of the Treasury), they all hold a very friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency assets.

I believe that when Trump chose these individuals, he may not have specifically assessed their attitudes towards cryptocurrency technology and assets, but as the saying goes, "birds of a feather flock together," people with shared values naturally come together. Because he has such values, the people he naturally chooses will have similar values.

Therefore, I increasingly believe that his cabinet will have noteworthy developments in cryptocurrency policy in the future.

There is also one thing that, although not directly related to Trump, I feel is intricately connected to his upcoming administration:

On November 22, Pennsylvania passed the "Bitcoin Rights Bill" with a high vote and subsequently proposed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill."

If this "Reserve Bill" is passed, it means that Pennsylvania will consider Bitcoin as part of the state's reserves. With Pennsylvania setting this precedent, I believe more Republican-controlled states may pass similar bills.

In fact, regardless of whether the federal government will include Bitcoin as a reserve, as long as a significant number of states in the U.S. adopt Bitcoin as a reserve, it will be a significant positive for Bitcoin.

Recently, many media outlets have claimed that Bitcoin's recent surge has already exhausted the potential benefits that the Trump administration is about to introduce.

I do not see it that way; I still believe that the peak will occur next year, and this round of Bitcoin's peak will not be hastily completed this year.

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