If Théo's expectations for a resounding victory by Trump come true, he could gain over $80 million, more than double his investment.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Translation: BitpushNews Mary Liu

The man who has wagered over $30 million on Donald Trump's victory wants to tell people that he is not trying to manipulate the U.S. election.

The man, who goes by Théo, said during a Zoom call with a Wall Street Journal reporter earlier this week, "My goal is just to make money." Théo claims to be French and has lived in the U.S., working as a trader in banking.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts on the Polymarket platform had been systematically purchasing contracts betting on Trump's victory, and Théo's massive bets on Polymarket (a prediction market not open to Americans) drew widespread attention.

As shown on Polymarket, these bets increased the odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data indicates that these accounts are all funded by the same cryptocurrency exchange, raising questions about the motivations behind the "Trump whale."

Last week, New York-based Polymarket stated that as part of an investigation into the bets, it had contacted this "Trump whale." The company said the person behind the bets is a Frenchman with extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.

Polymarket stated, "Based on our investigation, we learned that this person's investment behavior is entirely based on his personal predictions about the election outcome."

The details in Polymarket's statement align with Théo's self-description. He confirmed that he had spoken with a member of Polymarket's legal and compliance team.

Election observers are carefully analyzing all data in an attempt to predict the outcome of one of the most controversial and seemingly closest presidential elections in U.S. history. Prediction markets allow people to bet on various potential events, which has become a possible way to forecast election winners. Historical studies show that the presidential candidate with the highest odds in betting markets shortly before the election often ends up in the White House.

However, the emergence of the Trump whale exposes the limitations of today's prediction markets: despite a surge in trading volume on Polymarket this year, the number is still small enough for a wealthy, opinionated individual to manipulate prices with millions of dollars in bets.

After an article about his bets was published on October 18, Théo emailed The Wall Street Journal. To prove he was the mastermind behind the Polymarket bets, The Wall Street Journal asked him to place a bet on whether "Taylor Swift will announce her pregnancy in 2024"—one of many small non-political bets on the platform. Minutes later, Polymarket's website showed that one of the accounts, Theo4, placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy.

In the Zoom call, Théo wore a gray Nike sweatshirt and had a neatly trimmed short beard. He spoke English with a slight accent, stating that he made the bet after concluding that polls underestimated Trump's support, denying speculation that his bets were aimed at boosting Trump's campaign.

Théo declined to reveal his real name, and The Wall Street Journal could not verify all the details of his story. Although Théo claimed he funded the bets with his own money, it could not be confirmed. The Wall Street Journal also could not rule out any connections between Théo and political organizations or Trump allies.

"I absolutely have no political intentions," Théo wrote in his first email.

Théo said he did not want to reveal his name because his friends and children do not know the extent of his wealth, and he does not want them to know about his bets on Trump. He claims to be an experienced financial investor willing to take risks of tens of millions of dollars for high-conviction trades. However, Théo said political betting is still new to him.

Théo mentioned that he became interested in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump's support in 2016 and 2020, concluding that if Trump performs well again this year, he will defeat Harris. Théo also referred to the "shy Trump voter effect"—people's reluctance to tell pollsters they support Trump.

"I know a lot of Americans will vote for Trump, but they won't tell you," Théo said. When asked about the changes polling organizations made to their methods to address the issues of 2016 and 2020, Théo scoffed, saying he "didn't see any substantial changes."

In the following two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to The Wall Street Journal reporter.

In many of the emails, he criticized mainstream media polls for favoring Harris. During the Zoom meeting, he claimed that Democratic media organizations incited expectations of a competitive race rather than his expectation of a Trump landslide, which he believes sows the seeds for social unrest.

Théo said his trading has drawn significant attention, which caught him off guard. In August, he quietly began betting millions on Trump under the username Fredi9999. At that time, Trump and Harris had roughly equal odds on Polymarket.

Théo spread his bets over several days and weeks to avoid causing a price spike. However, as the bets increased, Théo noticed that when Fredi9999 bought in, other traders stopped quoting prices. This made it harder for Théo to obtain attractive prices. Théo said he created three additional accounts in September and October to mask his buying behavior.

Now, if Théo's expectations for a Trump landslide come true, he could gain over $80 million, more than double his investment.

In addition to his main bet on Trump winning the Electoral College, Théo also wagered millions on Trump winning the popular vote—an outcome many political observers consider unlikely—as well as Trump winning individual swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

If Harris wins, Théo would lose most or all of his $30 million, which he claims is most of his liquid assets.

He has become a major player on Polymarket, effectively trapped in a passive position because he cannot exit his bets without causing a market collapse. According to data from the provider Polymarket Analytics, these four "Trump whale" accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts for Trump winning the Electoral College and over 40% of the contracts for Trump winning the popular vote.

The Frenchman admits to feeling nervous. He expresses confidence that Trump will win—estimating the chances of winning the election at 80% to 90%—but he is also concerned that his bets could be disrupted by last-minute unexpected events.

Théo said, "There will always be surprises."

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