The U.S. election is heating up, with just 6 days left until voting day.

Written by: Rhythm Worker, BlockBeats

Bitcoin is just 2% away from its historical high and is ready for Trump's return to the White House.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, global capital markets, the crypto industry, and the U.S. financial sector are all in a state of heightened tension. The showdown between Trump and Harris is not just a contest between candidates; it also involves fluctuations in a series of conceptual assets, bets from political "fat cats," and dramatic reactions from the cryptocurrency market.

Just like his performance during the assassination attempt, Trump's political tactics are very seasoned. He chose to campaign in New York at the last moment, a state that has been Democratic since 1984, and the results were surprisingly good. The stock price of Trump Media Group (DJT.US) soared over 21% on Monday. Coupled with his New York upbringing and the financial deregulation policies during his previous presidency, he has garnered support from many in Wall Street and Silicon Valley, including "Paypal Mafia" member Peter Thiel and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. Elon Musk has also been a staunch supporter of Trump, rallying in key swing states and distributing $1 million to voters daily. He jokingly said that investing in Trump was the riskiest bet of his career, and if Trump loses, he would also be "finished."

The crypto industry's alignment with Trump is even more evident. Donations from the crypto industry for the 2024 U.S. election have reached $94 million, setting a historical record. Meanwhile, prominent venture capital firms like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and crypto trading platform Coinbase have also shown absolute support for the Republican candidate.

"Cryptocurrency is inherently political, and it always has been; if the left relies on financial politicization, then cryptocurrency, by definition, will be a right-wing technology. It is delusional to suggest that cryptocurrency is nonpartisan and hopes for the best outcome." The statement from smart contract pioneer Nic Carter almost represents the attitude of most crypto investors.

Current "Battle Situation": The Tug-of-War Between Harris and Trump

Riding on Biden's recent slip of the tongue during a conference call where he said, "Trump's supporters are garbage," Trump, like a true performer, is full of fighting spirit.

"How does my garbage truck look? This truck is in honor of Harris and Biden." (Reuters)

U.S. media reported that when Trump arrived at the Wisconsin airport that day, he was wearing an orange reflective vest. After exiting the plane, he took a seat in a white garbage truck emblazoned with the words "Make America Great Again 2024" and answered reporters' questions.

In this sprint phase, the two candidates—current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump—are doing everything they can to win the last bit of support from voters. As the election countdown begins, both sides' campaign strategies, polling data, and betting dynamics are under close scrutiny.

On October 29, Harris held a campaign rally on the south lawn of the White House, source / Reuters

On October 27, Trump held a campaign rally in New York, source: Visual China

Against this backdrop, Harris and Trump's support rates in polls show a subtle tug-of-war, and the betting frenzy in the market continues to rise. As the election date approaches, how these polls and betting platform data predict the outcome of this evenly matched election has become a focal point of public interest.

Polling Battle: A Stalemate

First, let's look at the polls. According to the latest report from Reuters, Harris's lead over Trump has gradually narrowed, with the Democrats currently holding a slight edge at 44% to 43% over the Republicans. This result indicates that both sides have nearly equal support nationwide, and as the election date approaches, voters' decision-making space and intention to vote become increasingly critical.

Since July, Harris has slightly led in most polls, but since late September, her lead has gradually diminished, especially showing weakness on key policy issues like the economy and immigration. The latest data shows that voters are more inclined to believe that Trump has better policy performance in addressing economic and employment issues, with a ratio of 47% to 37%. The economy is considered one of the core issues of this election, with about 26% of voters viewing it as the most urgent national issue. On immigration policy, Trump leads with an advantage of 48% to 33%, demonstrating the appeal of his hardline stance to some voters.

Meanwhile, Harris has a slight edge in addressing political extremism and threats to democracy, but this advantage is steadily weakening. Polls show that 40% of voters believe Harris is more effective on this issue, while 38% choose Trump. This narrowing gap reflects a division in voters' views on extremism, especially as both sides emphasize their respective positions, leaving voters' attitudes still wavering. Harris's team has leveraged the January 6 Capitol riot to highlight the "extremism" of Trump's supporters; however, this strategy has had limited effect and has instead deepened divisions among voters on this issue.

However, the margin of error in polls has a ripple effect and may not be entirely accurate. Especially in some swing states, the margin of error can significantly impact the final results. In the 2016 election, polls generally underestimated Trump's support, particularly in the Midwestern battleground states, where the polling results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin severely underestimated his support, leading to an unexpected final election outcome. Although the FiveThirtyEight platform gave Trump only a 28% chance of winning at that time, he ultimately won in those states, successfully reversing the national prediction trend.

A political science professor at Columbia University, Green, pointed out that polling becomes increasingly difficult over time, and it is more challenging in the U.S. than in other countries. Potential voters in the U.S. are less willing to participate in surveys than in the past, with only about one in seven of those asked agreeing to participate.

A notification about the U.S. election voting day appears after logging into Twitter

Predictive Betting Trends "Rightward Shift"

In addition to polling data, this year's betting data is also a noteworthy indicator, as bettors are wagering real money. Unlike public opinion polls that generally show both sides evenly matched, although there are some differences in specific values, Trump's emphasis on building closer ties with the cryptocurrency community during this campaign has resulted in a strong "rightward shift" across almost all cryptocurrency prediction platforms.

Polymarket is one of the most popular products during the U.S. election, with the main market for this year's election having nearly $2.7 billion in trading volume so far. Polymarket also frequently live streams changes in election win probabilities on major social media platforms.

According to Polymarket data, on October 30, the platform showed that Trump's probability of winning the presidential election on November 5 reached 67%. However, it is worth noting that Polymarket does not allow U.S. users to participate, so this win probability may not represent the opinions of all American voters. The largest bettor is a French individual who has placed a $45 million bet on Trump winning the November election across four accounts.

In addition to Polymarket's 67% win probability for Trump, other betting platforms show probabilities of 61% for RealClearPolitics, 59% for Kalshi, 57% for PredictIt, and 54% for FiveThirtyEight.

This heated scene has also prompted mainstream brokerage firms on Wall Street to take notice. Among them, the emerging brokerage Robinhood, which has gained popularity through retail investors in recent years, announced on the 28th that it would allow users to indirectly participate in betting on the outcome of the U.S. election.

To circumvent regulations, Robinhood employs "smart contracts," allowing users to purchase event contracts for Trump's or Harris's victory based on real-time price fluctuations, with each contract's price fluctuating between 2 cents and 99 cents. If the event contract is confirmed to occur (i.e., the user bets correctly), each contract will pay out $1.

Searching for the U.S. election on Google reveals ads for Trump

Under the Election, Capital Market Indicators

As the election approaches, fluctuations in global capital markets have become increasingly significant, with various "conceptual assets" emerging, from cryptocurrencies to "Trump concept stocks" becoming hot spots for market speculation. In the crypto space, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are rising, further solidifying their status as alternative assets in the financial market.

In the stock market, Trump-related concept stocks are also experiencing a surge. In this interactive game of capital and politics, investors are betting capital globally, attempting to capture the election's trends through financial markets.

Under the "Dopamine Rush," BTC Approaches New Highs

Trump's nearly year-long sweet period with the crypto industry has created a "dopamine rush," making his potential re-election a significant boon for the crypto space.

As Trump's approval ratings soar, Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, experienced a strong surge in October. In the early hours of October 30, Bitcoin's price briefly climbed to $73,577, nearing the historical high set in early March. Although the upward momentum slowed afterward, Bitcoin's increase for the month still reached 14.26%, indicating strong demand for it as a high-value asset. Ethereum also saw a peak of $2,680 before experiencing a pullback. In the past 24 hours, as leveraged short positions were liquidated, the total liquidation in the crypto market surged to $257 million.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's open interest also significantly increased, rising by 5.11% to a total of $43.17 billion. The dynamics of "whale" investors in the market are also noteworthy; on the trading platform Binance, the number of long positions is 1.42 times that of short positions. This trend reflects investors' bullish confidence in Bitcoin's performance in the coming weeks and even months. Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies worldwide stands at $2.43 trillion, having grown by 3.04% in just the past 24 hours.

In addition to mainstream coins, some new concepts related to the U.S. election have emerged, but most still center around Trump and the Republican Party.

Trump Vance 47 ($47), with a total supply of 47,000,000 tokens, symbolizes the commitment of Trump and Vance to bring about real, tangible change—empowering American workers, protecting communities, and achieving economic revival. $Republican also stands in support of the Republican Party and Trump's ascension. $America aims to support candidates advocating for secure borders, reasonable spending, safe cities, a fair judicial system, free speech, and self-defense, also supporting Trump as a conceptual coin. (This is not investment advice, just a record for the article.)

U.S. and A-shares: Trump Concepts Soar

In the U.S., as the election atmosphere heats up, stocks related to Trump have also seen significant increases. The stock price of Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT.US) surged 21.59% on Monday, attracting market attention. Since September 23, this "Trump concept stock" has cumulatively risen about 280%, reaching its highest level since June. Additionally, other "meme stocks" associated with Trump have also benefited; conservative video network Rumble's stock price rose by 12% during trading on Monday, while the stock of Phunware, a software company that participated in Trump's 2020 campaign, also increased by 15% at the opening.

Across the ocean in China's A-share market, some stocks symbolically linked to Trump have also been favored by investors. Among them, Chuan Da Zhi Sheng (002253) is seen as a symbol of Trump's victory due to the characters "川" (Chuan) and "胜" (Sheng) in its stock name. On October 31, Chuan Da Zhi Sheng quickly hit the daily limit after opening, closing at the limit for four consecutive days, with its stock price nearly doubling from the low point at the end of September.

Data: Tonghuashun

Chuan Da Zhi Sheng is not unfamiliar; previously, on the first trading day after Trump was attacked, it directly opened with a limit up during the collective bidding, quoting 11.22 yuan per share and maintaining that until the close. Each time news promoting Trump's victory emerges, Chuan Da Zhi Sheng experiences a surge, making it a typical example of literal stock speculation or metaphysical stock trading.

It is worth mentioning that Morgan Stanley has recently become the eighth largest circulating shareholder of Chuan Da Zhi Sheng, marking the first time this foreign investment giant has appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of the company. Morgan Stanley currently holds 1.274 million shares, valued at approximately 23.14 million yuan. If it purchased these shares at the beginning of the third quarter, the unrealized gains would be close to 9 million yuan. This "cross-ocean bet" has sparked market speculation, with some shareholders believing it indicates Morgan Stanley's optimism about Trump's victory, even "going local" in the A-share market by betting on Chuan Da Zhi Sheng. However, some analysts point out that Morgan Stanley's holdings may simply be part of a quantitative investment strategy, with significant changes in holdings each quarter, and may not necessarily involve a special "concept" strategy.

In addition to "Trump" concept stocks like Chuan Da Zhi Sheng, shareholders have found a conceptual stock for Harris, 002615 "Hals." Hals primarily deals in cups and foreign trade, and due to its phonetic similarity to Harris, it has been jokingly referred to as the "Harris concept stock."

Data: Tonghuashun

Clearly, Trump's strength is also reflected in the investment market. Compared to Chuan Da Zhi Sheng, Hals's performance appears weaker, reaching the daily limit on the morning of October 30 but failing to maintain it, with a rise of 2.5% as of the time of this article's publication on October 31. As the election approaches, speculation around concept stocks and cryptocurrencies continues to surge. Whether in the U.S. domestic market or China's A-shares, the "politics + market" interaction effect is becoming increasingly evident.

Key Countdown: Focus Points in the Final Days of the Election

As the U.S. presidential election enters its countdown, the critical moments in the coming days will become a global focus. This includes not only the results of ballot counting and potential ongoing legal disputes but also the complexities of the U.S. electoral system, the workings of the Electoral College, and the control of both houses of Congress. Here are the main points of focus regarding the timing of election result announcements, the possibility of delays, and related markets and election dynamics.

When Will Election Results Be Announced?

After voting ends on election day, each state begins counting ballots based on its own voting time, generally starting around 7 PM local time. However, the U.S. spans multiple time zones, meaning that ballots on the East Coast are often counted earlier, while voters in Alaska and Hawaii may still be voting. Typically, preliminary results can be obtained late at night Eastern Time, but if the election is close, the final results may take days or even weeks to be revealed.

On election night, through various media's preliminary counts and predictions, we can usually know which candidate has won in which states. However, these are based on statistical and voting trend estimates and are not official results. Therefore, converting to Beijing time, the earliest preliminary election results can be known is before noon on Wednesday, November 6.

Subsequently, the voting results will be sent to Congress, and on January 6, the new Congress will convene, presided over by the Vice President (who is also the President of the Senate), to publicly count and certify the Electoral College's voting results. Only after this step is completed are the election results considered official and final. The inauguration ceremony typically takes place on January 20, when the new President and Vice President take their oaths of office, officially beginning their terms.

Official counting may take several days or even weeks, especially in cases of high voter turnout or a large number of mail-in ballots. For example, in the 2020 election, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a significant number of mail-in ballots, counting in some states continued for several days, with Biden's victory announced four days after election day. The 2016 election was somewhat smoother, with Hillary Clinton conceding to Trump the following day.

At the same time, Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that if election results are disputed again or legal disputes arise, similar to the 2000 election between Bush and Gore, that controversy lasted over a month, causing uncertainty and triggering stock market fluctuations; the S&P 500 index fell 8% in November that year. This also means that the crypto industry will face significant volatility in the near term, especially in cases of disputed votes.

The Electoral College: Key to Swing State Dynamics

"Winning the popular vote is a symbolic victory, but it is not a necessary condition for election."

In the U.S. presidential election, voters do not directly vote for presidential candidates but for electors who represent those candidates. These electors make up the so-called "Electoral College," which will formally vote to elect the President and Vice President a few weeks after the election. This is an indirect election.

The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, a number equal to the total number of congressional representatives from all 50 states (including Washington D.C.)—435 in the House of Representatives, 100 in the Senate, and 3 from Washington D.C. Electors are typically chosen by state parties at state conventions or directly appointed by candidates. They are usually loyal supporters of their respective parties or senior members within the party.

The original design of this system was to balance the interests of large and small states, ensuring that each state has a certain power in the election. The number of electoral votes for each state is based on its number of congressional representatives, totaling 538, and to win the presidency, a candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes.

The Electoral College system has been in place since the founding of the country in 1787, but its design and actual operation often spark controversy. Some critics argue that the Electoral College system allows presidential candidates to win without securing the nationwide popular vote.

For example, the elections of 2000 and 2016 are typical cases; in 2000, Bush won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote, and in 2016, Trump similarly won due to his advantage in electoral votes, while Hillary Clinton led the popular vote by 3 million votes. This system gives a few key states significant influence, and the "equivalence" of voter voting rights has become a contentious issue.

The possibility and consequences of an Electoral College tie. While the likelihood is low, a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College is not impossible. Historically, this situation has only occurred once, in the 1824 presidential election. According to current rules, if this happens, Congress will conduct a "contingent election" to determine the winner. Specifically, the House of Representatives will be responsible for voting, with each state having one vote, and a candidate must receive support from at least 26 states to be elected.

The 538 website has conducted a detailed analysis of the possibility of a tie between Harris and Trump. Professor Cobb stated that the possibility of a tie this year is a "real concern" and pointed out that if it goes to the House of Representatives for voting, the Republican nominee is likely to win due to the current Republican control of the House.

In the current election dynamics, the performance of seven key swing states will be in the spotlight, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which decided the final outcome in the 2016 and 2020 elections by narrow vote margins. Due to the "winner-takes-all" rule, these swing states have become the focus of both parties' campaigns, with each vote potentially determining the final result. Among registered voters, 93% of Republicans indicated they would participate in voting, while the figure for Democrats is 89%. This shows that both parties' voters exhibit a high willingness to vote amid intense election dynamics, and the strong support bases of both parties make this election one of the most suspenseful in recent years.

The Battle for Control of Congress: Legislative Power Contest

While the results of the presidential election are important, control of both houses of Congress will also determine the new president's policy direction. If the new president cannot control either house, it will affect the realization of their agenda.

In the election on November 5, voters and the Electoral College will not only elect the President and Vice President but also select representatives for both houses of Congress, with some seats in the Senate and House of Representatives up for reelection. The competition for seats, especially in the Senate, is particularly fierce between Republicans and Democrats. According to legal provisions, one-third of the senators are up for reelection every two years, and this year, two of the 34 seats are special elections: one for the vacancy left by Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse's resignation and the other for the seat left vacant by the death of California Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Since Clinton, every new president's term has begun with their party controlling both houses of Congress, and while they typically lose control midway through their term, they have had the ability to implement their legislative agenda at the start. This is also a key issue surrounding fiscal policy, including spending bills (which, if not passed, could lead to a government shutdown) or raising the debt ceiling, both of which require legislation. Appointments of cabinet members, Supreme Court justices, and the Federal Reserve Chair also require a majority vote in the Senate.

The control of both houses not only affects the president's ability to implement policies but also determines the direction of fiscal policy. If the House and Senate are controlled by different parties, policy-making will face more obstacles, especially on critical issues like the debt ceiling, where a stalemate could directly increase the likelihood of a government shutdown. According to data from the crypto betting platform Polymarket, the current probability of a "unified government" scenario, where both houses and the presidency are controlled by the same party, is about 60%, but the possibility of a divided government should not be overlooked. This means that the policy direction and actual operation of the new government will depend on the control of both houses and may affect the advancement of regulations across various industries, including the crypto sector.

According to a Reuters report from Washington on October 23, House Republicans are defending a narrow majority in the election on November 5. The Democrats only need to flip five seats to gain control of the House of Representatives.

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