Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
As the U.S. election approaches its conclusion, the future direction of the cryptocurrency market, which is greatly influenced by U.S. political and economic factors, has become a focal point of market attention.
Will Bitcoin's price break new highs as hoped? Will Ethereum's price continue to show weakness? Will the Solana ecosystem's meme coin craze continue? Can altcoin markets gradually warm up? Odaily Planet Daily will organize and analyze the current views on the U.S. election and the cryptocurrency market in this article for readers' reference.
Latest Polls: Trump Temporarily Leads, Harris Close Behind
Overall, Republican presidential candidate Trump is currently leading in election support, albeit by a narrow margin; Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Harris is slightly trailing.
Analysis of U.S. Election Rules: 270 Electoral Votes are Key
According to U.S. election rules, the 50 states have a certain number of electoral votes, totaling 538 nationwide. A candidate must win 270 or more electoral votes to win. Except for two states (Nebraska and Maine), all states use a "winner-takes-all" rule, meaning that once a candidate receives a majority of votes in that state, they will receive all of that state's electoral votes. Most states overwhelmingly support one party, so the focus of campaigning usually falls on about a dozen battleground states, known as "swing states."
Historically, the key to success in U.S. elections has been seven "swing states," which together hold 94 electoral votes, and their outcomes will determine who occupies the presidency.
Latest Polls: Trump's Support at 52%
The latest poll shows Trump leading Harris, with 52% of voters supporting Trump for president.
Previously, reports indicated that Trump led Harris by 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll.
In a recent poll conducted by the Financial Times, Trump is ahead of Harris regarding the U.S. economy.
The crypto prediction market Polymarket's latest betting information shows Trump's winning probability at 60.7%, while Harris's is at 39.4%.
According to the well-known U.S. political election website RCP's official information, the predicted combination of Trump/Vance is expected to secure more key votes in swing states, potentially leading to a total of 312 electoral votes and an eventual victory.
Predicted Results of the U.S. Election Ballot Box
Market Perspective: Trump's Election Probability Highly Correlated with Crypto Asset Prices
Previously, Monad's growth lead Intern stated that the curve of Trump's winning probability on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with Bitcoin's price movements.
The chart selected data from March to October of this year
QCP Capital previously pointed out in a report that as Trump's chances of winning increase, the market expects his crypto policies to be more favorable than Harris's, further enhancing the positive correlation between crypto assets and Trump's victory.
As Galaxy Research analyzed earlier, although Harris is more favorable towards cryptocurrency policy than current President Biden, she is still far behind Trump in market perception. After all, Harris has promised to improve the regulatory environment for the U.S. crypto industry, but takes a more cautious stance on issues like taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody, while Trump supports Bitcoin mining and promises to protect self-custody rights.
Bitfinex Alpha's research report also pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin's price movements and Trump's election probability has strengthened, as investors assess the potential impact of a Republican victory on future crypto regulations, making the cryptocurrency market more sensitive to the U.S. election. Additionally, the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin perpetual contracts and futures contracts has surged to a historic high of over $40 billion, reflecting increased speculative activity, indicating that the current price movements are largely driven by leveraged futures positions rather than spot market demand.
The "Key Figures" Behind the Candidates: Musk Donates $75 Million, Gates Pressures with $50 Million
The U.S. presidential election naturally involves not only political choices but also various aspects of the U.S. economy, and the key to victory lies in support in terms of funds, resources, and momentum. By examining the "key figures" behind Trump and Harris, we may gain insight into the preferences in the U.S. political and economic landscape.
Musk: The "First Person" to Rally for Trump
Previously, according to documents from the Federal Election Commission, Elon Musk donated $75 million to a political action committee supporting Trump. Moreover, last Thursday, Musk gave a campaign speech for Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania; subsequently, he called on Pennsylvania voters to express their support for Trump through various campaign signs and announced at an event that from that day (October 19) until November 5, Election Day, he would randomly distribute $1 million to a registered Pennsylvania voter who signed the "America Political Action Committee (America PAC)" petition. The first winner was announced that day.
It must be said that Musk has contributed significantly to Trump's campaign in terms of money, manpower, and effort, so it's no wonder Trump previously stated: "Thank you, Elon Musk, for your tremendous support."
Bill Gates: Secretly Donated About $50 Million to Harris's Campaign Organization
Former U.S. billionaire Bill Gates, who has largely stepped back from politics for decades, privately stated that he recently donated about $50 million to the nonprofit organization Future Forward, which supports Vice President Harris's campaign. This donation was originally intended to be secret. A person familiar with Gates's thoughts revealed that this year, in private conversations with friends and others, he expressed concern about the prospect of Trump being re-elected, although he emphasized that he could work with any candidate.
Billionaire Bill Ackman: Will Provide Help if Trump is Elected
Billionaire Bill Ackman stated that Harris and Trump are like the best candidates in the world, making it difficult to choose because they are both outstanding. If Trump is elected president, many very capable businessmen would want to join this government, and he would do everything he could to help him, but he would not become a member of the government. He believes that Trump (if elected president) will have no trouble assembling a very capable team.
a16z Founders: Each Donated $2.5 Million to Trump's Campaign Organization
According to the latest documents submitted to the Federal Election Commission, a16z founders and venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $2.5 million to a super political action committee supporting Trump. The two announced their support for Trump in July. Andreessen also donated an additional $844,600 to Trump's campaign team and the Republican Party, which is the federal government's limit.
Billionaire Tim Draper: Betting on Both Sides with Similar Donation Amounts
Billionaire and American venture capitalist Tim Draper previously clarified: “I have donated to both Harris and Trump’s campaign teams, and the amounts are roughly equal, which allows my wife and me to meet both candidates and make a more informed decision. Both candidates have the right starting points; although they will set different paths for America, I am optimistic that either path will be a positive step. I support both candidates.”
Overall, individuals friendly to the crypto industry are more supportive of Trump, while those from traditional venture capital institutions tend to hedge their bets or support Harris.
Market Perspective: Most Believe Trump's Victory Will Benefit Crypto, Few Think the Winner Will Promote Crypto Development
Looking at the current market perspective, most research institutions and related organizations hold an optimistic view on the development of the crypto market under Trump; a small number believe that whether Trump or Harris wins, both will further promote the crypto industry; however, there are very few opinions suggesting that Trump's victory could lead to a decline in the crypto market.
Traditional Institutions: Optimistic About the Crypto Market Under Trump
A research report from Citibank states that in the upcoming U.S. election, a comprehensive victory for the Republican Party would be the most favorable outcome for Coinbase and the broader crypto market, while a Harris victory and a divided Congress could increase uncertainty in the digital asset industry.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin is showing strong upward momentum and may approach its historical high of $73,800 before the U.S. election. The potential price increase is driven by various factors, including a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and rising probabilities of a Trump victory. Current data shows Trump's winning probability at 56.3%, with a 39% chance of a comprehensive Republican victory, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, the open interest for $80,000 call options in the Bitcoin options market has recently increased, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's mid-term upward potential.
BNP Paribas, in a report, stated that the outcome of the U.S. election early next month will determine the near-term outlook for the dollar. If Republican candidate Trump becomes president and the Republicans control Congress, it would be the most positive outcome for the dollar.
Crypto Enthusiasts: Trump Will Propel Bitcoin Prices to $100,000
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategy at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, predicted that if Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, Bitcoin's price could rise to $92,000. He stated that based on a chart plotting Bitcoin prices against Trump's winning odds on Polymarket and applying some "merged arbitrage-style probability mathematics," the results indicate that Bitcoin's price is likely to soar after Trump wins the election. Additionally, early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman claimed that he believes Trump's victory could push Bitcoin's price to $100,000, stating, "His policies will ignite the crypto market and drive significant growth across the entire sector."
Augustine Fan, director of SOFA.org, stated: “As attention turns to the outcome of the U.S. election, the most positive result for cryptocurrencies would be a Trump victory, along with a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, making it possible for the Trump-Vance-supported digital asset reform plan to pass in Congress.” Jung added, “If Trump's dominance continues and the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, we may see new momentum for Bitcoin in the weeks following these events.”
Alex Svanevik, CEO of blockchain analytics firm Nansen, argued that 2025 will be the primary condition for the largest bull market in history, contingent on Trump winning the presidential election.
Neutral Perspective: Whoever Wins Will Lead to Economic Risks and Market Declines
Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that while some believe Trump's victory would negatively impact economic growth and the stock market, a Harris victory could lead to disappointment on Wall Street. Polls indicate that the likelihood of this scenario occurring is 50%. However, Wilson pointed out the risks of a market decline that could also accompany a Trump victory.
Analysts at trading and financial services firm Presto stated that the U.S. election could trigger a collapse in the bond market, which would also impact other assets like Bitcoin. Jones expressed optimism for Bitcoin, gold, commodities, and Nasdaq stocks in the current risk environment. Analysts believe that both Republican candidate Trump and Democrat Harris have committed to "fiscal extravagance," leading to rising government debt levels, which exacerbates the risk of a bond market collapse. Additionally, the pending "2024 Bitcoin Bill" awaiting Congressional approval could help stabilize U.S. debt and even stabilize the global financial system.
Neutral Perspective: Whoever Wins Will Benefit the Crypto Industry
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture fund Dragonfly Capital, stated: “Regardless of who wins, the post-election environment should be favorable for potential crypto IPOs.” He noted that while Trump may push the SEC to adopt a more supportive stance toward cryptocurrencies, Harris might "replace Gensler with her own picks, which should lead to a more lenient regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in the U.S."
David Lawant, research director at crypto market maker FalconX, stated, “I believe the market consensus is that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin is likely to perform well. Our analysis indicates that the options activity around the upcoming election shows a clear bullish bias.” Republican candidate and former President Trump openly supports cryptocurrencies, leading Bitcoin to be viewed as a so-called "Trump trade." His Democratic opponent, current Vice President Harris, has promised to support a regulatory framework for the industry, contrasting with the Biden administration's crackdown on the sector. Non-political factors, such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are seen as contributing to the optimistic sentiment.
Mick Mulvaney, who served as acting chief of staff in the Trump administration, stated that cryptocurrencies are an industry that "breaks the American political mold" because they appeal to both Democrats and Republicans.
Opposing View: Harris Will Hinder More Crypto ETF Applications
Two ETF experts indicated that if Democratic presidential candidate Harris wins in the November election, XRP and SOL ETF applications may not yield results. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated, “If Harris wins, it won’t be approved, regardless of who the issuer is.” Some industry experts believe that when asset management giant BlackRock joined the competition to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it significantly increased the chances of SEC approval for them—though it remains unclear how much influence BlackRock actually has.
Balchunas stated that if former President Trump wins the election, there will be a "considerable opportunity" for more cryptocurrency ETFs to emerge, regardless of whether BlackRock joins Bitwise, VanEck, and other companies hoping to expand crypto ETFs beyond BTC and ETH.
Opposition View: Trump Trade Hinders Cryptocurrencies, Cooling Bitcoin's Uptrend
As Trump leads Harris in the prediction markets, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have recently surged. Investors are curbing bets on loose monetary policy, as if Trump wins the election, he will implement growth measures on an already strong U.S. economy. With the financial environment tightening relatively, Bitcoin has experienced its first weekly decline in three weeks.
An IG Australia market analyst stated that stock market sell-offs, a rising dollar, and increasing yields all indicate a tightening financial environment, which is not favorable for cryptocurrencies. Some may point out that the financial environment has been loose from the start, but the speed of tightening is more important. The co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets stated that if Trump wins, it could lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields, ultimately negatively impacting risk assets. However, the expected softening of regulatory measures on the crypto industry under the Trump administration should still be a more significant factor.
Conclusion: Bitcoin May Rally After a Pullback Before the Election
Currently, there is a strong call for Trump's victory, and aside from the crypto industry's eager anticipation, traditional financial markets are also showing signs of warming up—according to Barclays stated, European stock markets have already reflected the possibility of a Trump victory. The company noted that since early spring this year, a basket of European exporters, particularly those most affected by tariffs, has underperformed the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index by 15%, indicating that European stock markets have somewhat priced in a Trump victory.
Data from Polymarket, regarded as a "crypto barometer," also supports this possibility, with users Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie collectively betting $30 million that Trump will win the 2024 presidential election; another Polymarket user, zxgngl, recently placed a bet of over $5 million on Trump's victory. Analysis indicates that over $35 million in bets may have contributed to Trump's significantly improved winning odds.
Although venture capitalist and Polymarket seed round investor Alex Marinier stated that it is entirely possible "some big players are making large bets to sway the market"; the founder of prediction market Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, recently argued that these results are accurate rather than manipulated. He stated, “The median bet for Harris is higher than for Trump,” with Harris's median bet at $85 and Trump's at $58. An increasing number of people on the platform are betting on Trump's victory, and the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket corresponds roughly to the number of participants. Based on the current total betting amount of over $2.4 billion on Polymarket, Trump's winning probability may have been clearly demonstrated in this data.
Thanks to a series of crypto-friendly statements made by Trump previously, combined with the gradual dissemination and spread of various positive news before the election, it may drive the crypto market, including Bitcoin, to experience a brief pullback before rising again and even reaching new highs.
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