Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Recently, the meme trading platform Moonshot has gained fame, being praised in multiple posts on platform X as the "on-chain small Binance," claiming it has solved the "last mile" problem for meme tokens and has a strong listing effect. (Note: The author reviewed 9 articles introducing Moonshot and found that 6 of them included referral links, indicating a clear promotional bias.)
So, does Moonshot indeed have a significant listing effect? If so, is it short-term or long-lasting? Odaily will conduct a data review in this article.
Basic Situation Description
Statistical Objects: This article counts 13 tokens that were listed on Moonshot in the past ten days, excluding other tokens that crossed chains to Moonshot, such as NPC, STONKS, etc.
Statistical Time: The listing time provided by the account "Moonshot Listings" serves as the benchmark, and the token prices are recorded at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and current (October 22, 11:00 AM Beijing time) after listing.
Special Circumstances: Since it is impossible to determine the exact second the listing announcement was made, the starting price is taken as the opening price of the 1-minute candlestick, while other prices, such as the price 5 minutes after listing, are taken as the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick.
Listing Effect Review
The statistical results of price changes over various time periods are shown below:
It is evident that there is a significant "listing effect" in the 5 minutes following the announcement, with an average increase of 14.7% in the first 5 minutes after the announcement, and the longer the time frame, the more pronounced the differentiation becomes.
Additionally, excluding GOAT, the average increase from 5 minutes to 24 hours is actually increasing, but the cumulative increase since listing has seen a steep decline.
Short-term Listing Effect is Obvious
The 5-minute increase for each token listed on Moonshot is shown in the figure below, arranged from left to right in the order of listing. It can be seen that, except for XD, all other tokens experienced positive increases after the announcement.
The author, upon reviewing the candlestick charts, noted the possibility of an "announcement bot" automatically buying based on Moonshot announcements, especially for several small-cap tokens, where the 1-minute increase is more significant compared to the 5-minute increase.
The 1-hour increase chart is shown below, where it can be seen that most tokens maintain positive increases in the first hour after the announcement, but differentiation begins to appear, with several tokens' increases trending towards the zero axis.
No Listing Effect in the Mid-term
The chart below shows the 4-hour increase, where half of the tokens have erased their gains and continue to decline, while three tokens—Magnet, GOAT, and GNON—originally leading in their respective phases continue to rise, which does not definitively indicate that Moonshot is the fundamental reason for the increase.
The 24-hour increase chart is shown below, where slop and Shoggoth are included as they were listed for less than 4 hours. It can be seen that the differentiation in token increases is becoming more pronounced, and it can basically be concluded that whether or not a token is listed on Moonshot has no direct relationship with its mid-term increase.
Long-term Will Ultimately Trend to Zero
The chart below shows the cumulative increase of each token since the listing announcement. GOAT is not included in this chart due to its excessive increase. It can be seen that most tokens are trending towards zero, primarily because the tokens listed on Moonshot are all meme tokens, which struggle to attract long-term attention and establish core consensus amidst the proliferation of similar tokens, making a decline to zero inevitable.
In summary, Moonshot listings often serve only as short-term reference indicators, and whether tokens can continue to rise in the short to mid-term is unrelated to it.
Additionally, it was found that Moonshot listings only occur in the evening and early morning Beijing time, primarily focusing on popular tokens with a market cap around ten million. Readers who concentrate on trading during this time period may want to pay special attention to short-term opportunities.
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