On Oct. 15, 2024, with just 21 days until the election, Trump is predicted by Polymarket to come out on top in the U.S. election. At 2:45 p.m. Eastern on Monday, Trump’s lead hit 58.3%, marking his highest advantage since Harris entered the race following President Joe Biden’s decision not to run. Currently, Harris trails behind with a 41.5% chance.

Polymarket election odds at 2:45 p.m. ET on Oct. 15, 2024.

Trump isn’t just ahead in overall odds, he’s also leading in five out of six swing states. He’s dominating in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Harris holds a slim lead in Nevada, with just a 2 basis points margin. Even in the popular vote, Harris’s chances have taken a nosedive, dropping to a mere 65% on Polymarket. As for the balance of power, bettors are predicting the Republicans will control two of the three branches of government.

The latest data points to Republicans clinching both the presidency and the Senate, while Democrats are expected to hold onto the House of Representatives. Over at predictit.org, Trump’s lead is mirrored, with his odds of winning the 2024 election sitting at 53%. As of 2:45 p.m. ET on Monday, predictit bettors give Harris a 50% chance of success.

With Election Day fast approaching, the campaign’s final weeks will be critical for both candidates. The shifting odds and swing state dynamics underscore the unpredictable nature of U.S. elections. As voters gear up to cast their ballots, the political landscape could still evolve, leaving room for surprises in this tightly watched race.

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