The method is wrong, effort is in vain; the method is right, and the result is twice the effort. Everything has a method; finding a good method is half the success. It’s not that the question has no answer, but that the method hasn’t been found. It’s not that the road has come to an end, but that it’s time to turn. If you learn well, you become someone else's scenery; if you fall behind, others become your scenery. Don’t always wait, and don’t always expect. Trading is about being brave to hold on and daring to face challenges, not just sitting and fantasizing.
According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points by November is 70.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29.6%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 65.3%, while the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points is 8.7%; the probability of a cumulative cut of 100 basis points is 0%.
In terms of data, attention is on tonight's U.S. September unadjusted CPI data, with the market forecast at an annual rate of 2.3%, down from the previous value of 2.5%. If the published value is greater than 2.3%, it will be favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for Bitcoin; conversely, it will be unfavorable for the dollar and favorable for Bitcoin.
Chu Yuechen: Bitcoin and ETH Market Analysis and Trading Reference for 10.10
First, let’s review yesterday's market. Last night, we suggested a short position near 62800 for Bitcoin, but unfortunately, the price did not rebound to that level. However, we emphasized over the past two days that as long as it breaks below 61700, we would follow up with short positions, aiming to see it drop to around 60000. Last night, Bitcoin broke this level, and we initiated a short position at 61800, successfully capturing over 1000 points in profit. The market bottomed out around 60300 and has since rebounded, basically reaching our expected target. Congratulations to those who followed along.
There’s not much to say about yesterday's Bitcoin market. It started rebounding from 60300 at 4:30 AM today, reaching a high of around 61100. From a technical perspective, we have discussed for two days that the bearish sentiment still prevails. Technically, yesterday's support at 61700 has now become a resistance level, also known as a dense trading area. The lower range of 59800—60000 still has some support. We cannot currently determine if it will break down, and tonight at 20:30, the U.S. September unadjusted CPI data will be released, which will have some impact on Bitcoin. We will focus on this, and we will also have a live broadcast at 8 PM for real-time explanations. For intraday short-term operations, we tentatively set up short positions in the range of 61700—61800, with a stop loss at 62500 and a take profit at 60300. If it drops to the 59800—60000 range, we can consider a long position with a stop loss at 59000 and a take profit at 61500.
For ETH, the trend is basically consistent with Bitcoin, with slightly smaller fluctuations. The upper pressure is around 2470, and the lower support is at 2350, with strong support at 2300. For intraday short-term operations, we can set up short positions near 2450, with a stop loss at 2520 and a take profit at 2350. If it drops to 2300, we can consider a long position with a stop loss at 2250 and a take profit at 2400.
In summary, whether for Bitcoin or ETH, we will arrange our intraday contract positions as described, using a double take profit method for operations.
Specific Operation Suggestions (based on actual market prices)
For intraday short-term operations, we tentatively set up short positions in the range of 61700—61800, with a stop loss at 62500 and a take profit at 60300. If it drops to the 59800—60000 range, we can consider a long position with a stop loss at 59000 and a take profit at 61500.
For intraday short-term operations, we can set up short positions near 2450, with a stop loss at 2520 and a take profit at 2350. If it drops to 2300, we can consider a long position with a stop loss at 2250 and a take profit at 2400.
Before the market moves, any analysis can be correct and has its reasons, but no position will be absolutely accurate, and there are risks involved. Therefore, the premise for making money is to manage risk well. The market changes in real-time, and the strategy points are for reference only and should not be used as the basis for entry. Investment carries risks, and profits and losses are borne by the investor.
Many individual investors find it difficult to enter the trading door, often simply because they lack a guide. The problems you ponder may be easily solved with a hint from an experienced person. Daily real-time market analysis, along with guidance from experience-sharing groups, and evening practical guidance groups are available for real-time support. Live broadcasts explaining real-time market conditions will be held at irregular times in the evening.
For more real-time market analysis, please follow the public account: Chu Yuechen
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