The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the United States in September will be released on October 10, 2024, at 20:30 (Hong Kong time). Currently, the market generally expects the overall CPI for September to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month; year-on-year, the overall CPI is expected to drop from 2.5% in August to 2.3%, while the core CPI is expected to remain stable, rising by 3.2% year-on-year.

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It is also worth noting that all institutions that have released forecasts currently believe that inflation is more intense.

UBS expects the core CPI in September to rise by 0.31% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase reaching 3.3%. UBS stated that this could serve as a reminder for the Federal Reserve FOMC—America has not yet escaped the troubles of inflation.

Brian Rose, an economist at Swissquote Bank, stated in a report last Friday, "The CPI for September will be a key data point. If the pace of price increases exceeds expectations, combined with strong labor data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve remaining on hold at the November meeting will increase."

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said, "If Thursday's CPI data is weak enough, it may ultimately help soothe the Federal Reserve's dovish nerves and prevent the dollar from entering a mid-term bullish consolidation against many major currencies."

Goldman's forecast is also above the general market expectations, with the core CPI expected to grow by 0.28%. Goldman also predicts that the core services CPI for September will grow by 0.23%, higher than the average growth level of 0.13% over the previous three months. In its latest report, Goldman pointed out that car insurance prices will rise again, although the growth rate has slowed, reflecting the continued increase in premiums. Additionally, after significant increases in recent months, housing inflation is expected to slow, with owner's equivalent rent rising by 0.35% and primary rent rising by 0.31%.

Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler, stated that housing costs are one of the most persistent drivers of inflation this year and remain at high levels. Furthermore, tensions in the Middle East have led to rising energy costs, and last week's dock workers' strike has raised concerns about a resurgence of inflation this year.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the core CPI in the U.S. will rise by 0.26% month-on-month in September, slightly above the general market expectation of 0.20%. The bank also forecasts that the core CPI will increase by 3.2% year-on-year, consistent with the general market prediction. Morgan Stanley also stated that it expects the overall CPI to rise by 0.09% month-on-month in September, with the overall inflation rate declining due to falling gasoline prices.

Morgan Stanley predicts that due to rising prices for used cars and airline tickets, goods inflation is expected to rise, but service inflation is expected to slow, mainly due to a decline in housing inflation. The bank believes that the recent rise in Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) may be influenced by temporary seasonal factors, and it expects this indicator to undergo some adjustment. The bank also anticipates that after two months of weak performance, inflation in the healthcare sector will accelerate.

Morgan Stanley believes that the outlook for the U.S. September CPI report is nuanced, expecting the core CPI to rise moderately, while the trends in goods and services inflation are mixed. The bank believes that the overall inflation expectations driven by falling gasoline prices may decline.

At the same time, among the four major sub-indicators (food, energy goods, used cars, housing), all leading indicators except for energy goods indicate a certain upward trend. Leading indicators suggest that the year-on-year growth rate of the September CPI is likely to remain resilient, and there is a possibility of the growth rate stabilizing or even increasing, despite the current market generally expecting a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of the September CPI (the market expects a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from August). If inflation exceeds expectations, the extent of interest rate cuts in November will be further constrained, pushing U.S. Treasury yields and commodity prices higher, and further suppressing gold prices.

Other economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims, are also closely watched; however, unless the initial jobless claims deviate significantly from 225,000, this data may be secondary to the CPI report.

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