Happy birthday to our motherland! This time, the hunter does not wish for our country to prosper, but rather for our motherland to directly surpass the United States in prosperity on this birthday this year!
Let's first finish discussing the Bitcoin market, and later in the text, the hunter will share some Easter eggs to give everyone a direct sense of the changes and impacts on ordinary people in the future, as well as confidence in future life!
First, after Bitcoin broke and stabilized above 65,000 last week, the daily level has completed all the conditions for accelerated upward movement in terms of its structural pattern (W double bottom rebound breaking the neck line, M double top breaking the top resistance, V shape reversal breaking the previous three-pin top at 65,000). The subsequent market has also followed the technical expectations, accelerating upward all the way. Theoretically, this wave of increase has gathered the energy adjustment of the larger cycle and completed the construction of multiple upward patterns. Once a breakthrough occurs, the expectation is to head straight towards around 70,000. Whether it can break through is another matter, but at the very least, it should test that level.
Then, last night, after breaking through and accelerating to 66,500, the anticipated massive surge did not occur; instead, there was a flash crash, dropping to around 62,800. Currently, the market is rebounding and fluctuating around the 64,000 level.
After introducing the basic situation, it is clear that we can see a strange phenomenon in this round of fluctuations. After a long period of adjustment, the market experienced a flash crash during a perfect upward phase. If it were a profit-taking adjustment by the bulls, then the adjustment should have found support at the technical bottom during the upward process, followed by a second acceleration upward.
For example, over the weekend, the market surged to 66,500 and then retraced, consolidating around 65,500 throughout the weekend, showing a good effect of support after the top-bottom conversion at 65,000. The second retracement during the upward process confirmed support, and with a bullish structure, bullish market sentiment, and a technical need for upward movement after the retracement, the worst-case scenario should have been to maintain a sideways movement above 65,000, or to slightly break below 65,000 to trigger stop losses on long positions, inducing shorts before quickly rebounding upward.
The reality is: on Monday, the market suddenly flashed down, breaking the upward pattern. If it were an inducement to short, the drop would not have been too large. However, dropping from the 65,000 support point to 62,800 is not like an inducement; the magnitude is too large, and although there was a rebound today, it still hasn't recovered.
From an objective perspective, combined with the current market situation, we first confirm that this wave of the market has broken below 65,000, clearing out short-term profit-taking long positions. As for whether it will rise again after clearing the bulls, or if the current decline is the beginning of a trend reversal, there is a key signal indicating this: 65,500. This position is the support level after the weekend's surge and subsequent consolidation. If the market can complete a second upward movement, this position must be broken; otherwise, this round will mark the end of the bulls and the beginning of a downward reversal.
Intraday operations:
- Short at 64,000-64,200, stop loss at 64,500
- Target 63,000-63,500
Long-term operations: Start shorting around 64,000 (with a 200-point range), stop loss at 65,500. If it breaks below 62,300, increase the position to 3%. Further position increases will be notified by the hunter.
Easter egg at the end: Echoing the beginning, this year on our motherland's birthday, we have entered a new era. Those who hate the country should not rush to jump out; this time, the beneficiaries are no longer just the high-ranking officials, but the entire population. If we were to compare it with historical patterns, this time the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is akin to the collapse of the former Soviet Union. It shows the world that China has the ability to resist the harvesting of the dollar and can also retaliate.
In the last dollar tidal cycle in 2008, we absorbed a massive amount of dollars. The benefit was that we completed industrial upgrades and filled the entire industrial chain with this massive amount of dollars, but the cost was the inflation of the real estate market bubble. Simply put, absorbing a massive amount of dollars will inevitably lead to inflation. This influx of money must be channeled into one area as a reservoir, and our country, after careful consideration, chose to channel it into the real estate market. After all, compared to not being able to afford food, if one cannot buy a house, they can rent. The consequences of not being able to afford food are unimaginable.
This time, during the dollar tidal cycle, the decision-makers proactively began to puncture the real estate market while simultaneously suppressing the stock market with capital outflows. In the past, we used to say that A-shares are like Myanmar A-shares. While there are indeed many small players causing trouble, overall, the stock market before this year actually served to rebalance wealth. The role of the banking regulatory commission was also to suppress and control the stock market from overheating. The market value of A-shares has been severely suppressed and undervalued. After all, the positioning of the entire industrial chain, global suppliers, over 80% of raw material sources, and the largest consumer market in the world guarantees that whether in external circulation or internal circulation, regardless of sanctions, there will not be a chain reaction of explosions.
So why has A-shares not seen any improvement after the bull market in 2008? The reason is simple: the real estate market was already overheated. If A-shares were to overheat again, it would be much more difficult to resolve two heavy burdens. Keeping an empty reservoir is not afraid of seawater flooding in.
This time, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, overseas capital has seen that the United States cannot defeat China even in the financial sector. The recent test launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles after forty years also indicates a stance: China is absolutely safe, while the United States is not absolutely safe (previous test launches of the Minuteman III and Trident missiles in the U.S. have failed). In this new round of interest rate cuts, capital can only choose to flow back to China. Okay, when you come in, you are using Myanmar A-shares to take over, and we ensure that you cannot leave (you can leave, but you have to queue for approval). So you see the central bank governor personally coming out to cheer for the stock market. The 500 billion from the central bank, along with the entire process of signing and approval, will not be able to enter until at least November. The A-share market has already risen 20% in 7 days. What does this indicate? It indicates that we, the public, do not lack money; it is the external environment caused by interest rate hikes in recent years that has made us lose confidence in the future and hesitant to consume. This does not mean we lack money! The central bank's involvement is to allow our retail investors to occupy the bottom first, waiting for foreign capital to come in and take over at high positions. By that time, even if A-shares enter a bear market again, the first batch of people entering will still profit. Even if A-shares enter a cyclical sideways movement, the first batch of people entering will still profit. Even if A-shares are pushed higher by foreign capital, domestic retail investors will still profit as the tide rises. The state encouraging you to enter the market is not to harm you, comrades. While encouraging you to enter the market, they are also cleaning up the small players who have been causing trouble. What do you think the purpose is?
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