Rogers emphasized the importance of long-term investment, especially in agriculture and undervalued markets such as Russia, China, and Zimbabwe.

Original Title: "Jim Rogers Reveals His Secrets to Successful Investing"

Guest: Jim Rogers

Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: Jim Rogers, a famous American billionaire investor, is known as the "Commodity King". His personal funds increased by an astonishing 4200% after he co-founded the Quantum Fund with financial tycoon George Soros in 1973. As a result, Rogers became one of the legendary figures on Wall Street and one of the most influential investors in history, widely respected and studied by global investors.

In this conversation, Jim Rogers discussed the challenges that the global economy may face and his investment strategy for the future. Rogers emphasized the importance of long-term investment, especially in agriculture and undervalued markets such as Russia, China, and Zimbabwe. He believes that there will be more economic crises in the future, especially when the debt level becomes unsustainable, the situation will become more severe. He also recommended paying attention to Asia, especially China, considering it as the main economic force of the 21st century. In addition, Rogers also shared his confidence in agricultural investment and suggested that owning a farm during an economic collapse could be crucial for survival.

The following core issues were raised and discussed in this podcast:

1. Personal investment experience.
2. The inevitability and severity of economic issues in the future.
3. How to invest in a global recession.
4. The importance of Asia's rise in the 21st century.
5. Potential risks in the government bond market.

TL;DR:

• The impact of personal growth experience on investment thinking: Maintaining curiosity about the world, constantly reading about the world, and experiencing passion during his time on Wall Street.
• The cyclical nature of economic crises: The inevitability and severity of historical economic issues.
• The future prospects of agricultural investment: The value of agriculture as a long-term investment and how to invest in the context of global agricultural decline.
• The importance of Asia's rise: Especially China's global economic role in the 21st century and preparing for future generations.
• Potential risks in the bond market: The bubble issue in the government bond market and its potential collapse risk.

The impact of personal growth experience on investment thinking

Grant Williams: Jim Rogers' success is self-evident. Can you take us through your story?

Jim Rogers: I grew up in a small town in Alabama, then I went to Yale University, and then I received a scholarship to Oxford. After that, I joined the U.S. Army and spent a few years in the military before going to Wall Street. When I was at Yale, I was actually a confused young man. I was planning to go to medical school, business school, law school, and so on. But during the summer after graduating from Yale, I accidentally found a summer job on Wall Street. I knew nothing about Wall Street, only that it was in New York, and of course, something bad happened in 1929.

I didn't even know the difference between stocks and bonds, I thought they were the same. I knew nothing about investing. But I worked there for a summer, and it felt wonderful. I couldn't believe they were actually paying me to understand the world, think about the future, and predict the future. And if I did well, they would pay me a lot of money.

Grant Williams: What made you so fascinated?

Jim Rogers: I don't know, that's the reason I've always been interested. I've always been curious about the world, so I've always been reading about the world. I hadn't traveled much before, but I've always been fascinated by the outside world, the whole world, Chile, China, everywhere. When I had time, I would read about these things. And someone said they would pay me a lot of money if I could do well by reading about the world, understanding where Chile is, understanding what happened in China, and predicting the future. It was really interesting. I did get the scholarship to Oxford, so I went, but as soon as I came back, I went straight to Wall Street.

Grant Williams: You entered Wall Street with an open mind. What was your impression when you really entered this "beast's lair"?

Jim Rogers: I liked what I was doing, I liked trying to figure out what was happening in the world. The problem with Wall Street is that you have to know everything. You have to understand the whole world, it's like a three-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, and this puzzle changes every day. In fact, there's a fourth dimension, because every day you come in, it's a new day, and the pieces of the puzzle are rearranged. So, you have to keep working to stay ahead, and I can't imagine anything better than that.

I even found it sad when the stock market was closed on weekends. I remember what people used to do when the stock market was closed, because I was always reading, looking for other interesting things in the world. Once, I started talking to you and some people about buying Danish crowns in 1949, and for me, that was extremely exciting and stimulating. I thought there was a reason to buy Danish crowns, but I wasn't sure if they knew where Denmark was, or what Danish crowns were. But for me, stocks, commodities, bonds, currencies, everything was connected.

Wall Street was very different at that time, because there is almost no information advantage now. The real advantage is in your way of thinking and how quickly you can put the puzzle together. And at that time, there weren't many people like you who were willing to go the extra mile to learn about niche markets like Denmark. Now I know it was unique at the time, most American investors at the time only invested in stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, maybe some invested in the American Stock Exchange, and perhaps took the risk of investing in over-the-counter stocks.

But at that time, we were doing everything, and we enjoyed it. In the United States, there were few people like us. I guess Danish investors were investing in Denmark, and at that time, there weren't as many global investors as there are now. But in the 1970s, for most people, most things in the financial world were unknown. It's not like now, where everyone is eager to get to Wall Street as soon as possible. They even started hedge funds in the dorms, it was really interesting at that time, I enjoyed every minute of it.

Grant Williams: There was no Google at the time, you couldn't easily search for information on your phone, and there weren't as many global reports, where did you get information from?

Jim Rogers: I read newspapers from five different countries every day, always looking for information. The Financial Times was still there, The Economist was also there, we did read a lot of things, and if we needed to know something, we could definitely go to London to find out. I was busy enjoying trying to figure out who was doing what to whom, what would happen next, and when I was a child, I didn't know this was my passion.

Grant Williams: I remember in the book "Investment Biker," you mentioned doing business with your father when you were about how old?

Jim Rogers: 6 years old. At that time, I borrowed $100 from my father and bought a peanut roasting machine. I contracted the food stall for the town's sports games and had a group of boys working under me. There was also an ice factory at the time, and we would buy ice blocks from there, put Coca-Cola and soft drinks in them, and then go sell them. At that time, the price of peanuts was 5 cents per bag, but I had no competition, so I raised the price to 10 cents, and it actually worked. We would buy 100 pounds of large bags of peanuts from the wholesaler, and in the end, I paid back the $100 and also saved $100 in the bank.

At that time, my father and I bought a few calves, intending to have them raised by a farmer and then sell them for a profit. But in the end, we didn't make any money. Many years later, when I was working in investment on Wall Street, I remembered those calves and realized it was due to the Korean War. During the war, the prices of all commodities soared, and we bought those calves at the peak of the prices, handed them over to the farmer, thinking it was a surefire way to make money, but we didn't know the price trends.

Grant Williams: This is actually a very important lesson. Nowadays, everything is trying to avoid people losing money in a market downturn. The lesson you learned from that experience obviously had a huge impact on your future as an investor. How does today's world compare to that world? It seems that people no longer have the opportunity to learn such lessons.

Jim Rogers: Yes, indeed, my failures always taught me more. Most of us don't learn much when we succeed, but we do learn lessons when we fail.

Grant Williams: I interviewed Steve Diggle before, and he said that people always take credit for good things happening, and blame external factors or bad luck when bad things happen.

**Jim Rogers: Yes, I understood very early on that no one can blame anyone but themselves. I remember a huge failure early in my career when I put all my money into buying put options because I thought the stock market was going to fall. At that time, very few people knew what options were, and only two brokerage firms traded options. But I understood this very early and bought put options. Four months later, the stock market experienced the most severe crash in 30 or 40 years, and people around me went bankrupt, businesses closed down, but I tripled my money.

I thought, this is too easy! Then on the day the market hit bottom, I sold my put options and went long. I knew the market would rebound, and it did. So, two months after the market rebounded, I put all my money into it, but two months later, I went bankrupt because when you go short, you have to have enough staying power.

At that time, I went short on six companies, and each one went bankrupt within two years, but I still lost all my money because I didn't understand the market, I didn't know how to operate. I thought everyone knew what I knew, I didn't realize that many people didn't know these companies would go bankrupt, and the market started to rebound from a very low point. But even though I was right in my judgment, I lost everything.

In the past, if you made a judgment ahead of the market, you could usually find a way to stick it out until you were eventually right. The really great traders knew how to build positions of the right size so they could stick it out. Once they started getting it right, they would add to it. But now, the influence of central banks means smart people have to find a way to stick it out in the market, possibly for an indefinite amount of time, because we can no longer predict the future.

What central banks are doing is unprecedented in world history. The more you know, the worse off you may be, because these guys just keep printing money, they don't care about the bad effects of money printing in history, they don't care about interest rates and debt levels being at historically high levels. But that's the charm of the market, the market is always changing.

Wall Street Experience

Grant Williams: How did you go from the research department to where you are now on Wall Street? What was your goal next? What did you plan to do at that time?

**Jim Rogers: I was at a company with a small hedge fund. Due to some regulatory changes in Washington, we had to split off and become an independent hedge fund. At that time, hedge funds were almost non-existent, but we became an independent hedge fund, which was fortunate, and that's how we started. My partner and I both loved this world, we liked to invest globally. Going short was just one of the tools for me, there were many other tools, like options, international currencies, bonds, etc., were just part of it.

I used to read the commodities section every day, and at that time, The Wall Street Journal had only one page about commodities in the back. Many years later, I went to see a college classmate who was in charge of The Wall Street Journal. I told him I wanted to use the Dow Jones Commodity Index because I wanted to create a commodity index fund. But he said they didn't have a commodity index, so I took out The Wall Street Journal and turned to the commodities section. He looked at it and asked, "What is this?" So he called in a few subordinates and started asking about the Dow Jones Commodity Index in The Wall Street Journal. He was a smart guy, knowledgeable, and worked his way up to a high position.

I realized very early on that everything was connected, and you had to understand everything. If you really knew everything, you could find a lot of opportunities that others didn't know. Now you can find everything you want to know in just a few minutes on Google.**

Grant Williams: Was there a moment, a trade, or a key point in that hedge fund that took things to a new level?

**Jim Rogers: When we split off, we had $12 million, and at that time, no other hedge funds were doing international investments, we were one of the few. Within a year, we encountered a very big setback. I remember going to my 10th-anniversary class reunion that year, and I was probably the first one to announce bankruptcy at the reunion because we were really not doing well at that time. In 1974, the market crashed, and we did something wrong, partly because we went short on stocks like Avon, which later became known as the "Nifty 50." At that time, J.P. Morgan and other institutions said these stocks would never fall, and they kept buying them no matter what happened.

Later, I met a guy from Cambridge, who was in charge of the research department. No matter what happened, they would put every penny into stocks like Xerox, Kodak, Avon, etc. And we were shorting these stocks, which never fell, but we did. But in the end, we survived, and by the end of 1974, everything collapsed. The market dropped from 150 points to around 20 points. So, if there was a key point, it was that we survived in 1974 and performed very well. I remember in 1975, The Wall Street Journal came to interview us because they wanted to know what was going on with these people? What did they know? And at that time, J.P. Morgan lost a lot of money buying those stocks, while we made money.

Grant Williams: Were you considered "evil shorts" at that time? Because now, people who make money from shorting are often seen as evil, and China even threatens to arrest short sellers. In 2008 and 2009, some people shorted for two or three years because they saw signs of an economic collapse, and they made money. So, they were called evil shorts. Was your situation the same at that time, or was it different?

Jim Rogers: At that time, we were not considered "evil shorts." Leaders like Nixon had no idea about "shorting," and neither did Dwight D. Eisenhower, shorting was not that common at the time. Even if someone lost money, their losses would be reduced because of the buying by short sellers. As you said, now in China, some people are trying to blame short sellers, even though the proportion of short selling in the Chinese market is less than 1%.

Grant Williams: When everyone thought a stock would rise, and you were right, it felt really great. But in the mid-1970s, inflation began to spiral out of control, how did you deal with that environment? After all, many people in the financial industry nowadays have no concept of inflation, especially the kind of inflation from that era.

Jim Rogers: Yes, they also don't understand that bond prices can fall. We did go short on bonds at that time, and there was even a period when we went short on gold. I remember we made a lot of money on oil because the price of oil rose with the war, which led to inflation. We didn't go long on oil because we foresaw inflation, but because the fundamentals of oil were very strong, which also led to inflation and rising interest rates.

Grant Williams: How did you feel during that time?

Jim Rogers: It was very interesting because a lot of things happened at that time, and central banks were not all-powerful, but they let things get out of control. In the end, they had to regain control. Now, 30 or 40 years have passed, and things are out of control again, but they haven't stopped it.

Grant Williams: When you look back at that era and compare it to now, how do you see it?

Jim Rogers: It's actually the same thing, central banks don't know they are letting things get out of control, it's not their plan. Arthur Burns and G. William Miller printed a lot of money at the time, but they thought it was good for the market and the economy. Perhaps in some ways it was, but one of the consequences was severe inflation. Part of the inflation was caused by printing money, and it eventually got out of control.

Maybe those guys today are different, these central bank governors are all-powerful, after all, they have computers, they probably know more than those people at the time. However, I suspect many people would say that central banks are not as smart as we think, these guys are actually quite stupid. I remember in 2008, a chief economist at the Federal Reserve wrote a paper that began with some people saying the real estate market would collapse and the economy would have problems. But we have the smartest few hundred Ph.D.s in the world working for us, we know this won't happen.

Grant Williams: Honestly, I think your viewpoint is more sensible, and I tend to believe you.

Jim Rogers: The 1970s were full of passion because we made a lot of money at that time. We didn't stop to think about why we were making so much money, one reason might be that we used a lot of leverage. I think we should have gone bankrupt, but we kept making the right judgments, so we had some success. Despite making a lot of mistakes, especially in my personal life, my first wife was a big mistake.

Grant Williams: So, entering the 1980s, with Volcker coming in and suppressing inflation, it did solve many problems the U.S. was facing. But more importantly, it started a 30-year bull market, with interest rates peaking at 17% and then falling to near zero. How do you view this change? And obviously, the information advantage has started to disappear.

Jim Rogers: First of all, I retired in 1980 because I wanted more than one kind of life. So, I slowed down and started traveling the world. At that time, I tried to apply for permits to ride a motorcycle through the Soviet Union and China. Looking back now, what kind of crazy person was I to think that China would allow an American capitalist to ride a motorcycle through communist China and the Soviet Union? But at that time, I was really knocking on doors, trying to get permission.

Grant Williams: That doesn't sound like something you would do at that time. Most people wouldn't think like that, from reading news about the Danish krone to trying to get permission to ride a motorcycle through Russia, it's really surprising. But when I was reading "Investment Biker," I remember thinking to myself: I bet this guy is thinking he'll find countless investment opportunities along the way, I think that was probably your mindset at the time.

Jim Rogers: No, my mindset at the time was that I wanted to ride a motorcycle around the world because I love motorcycles. Of course, you can travel the world without going through China and Russia, but that wouldn't be a real trip around the world. That's what I wanted to do, it was more important to me than sitting in front of a computer all day. At that time, I would rather explore the world on a motorcycle than read news about Denmark all day. I was still investing, and I even taught for a while, which was a coincidence. I'm still investing, but not as focused and leveraged as in the 1970s.

By the late 1980s, people started to understand what hedge funds were, and people started using computers. There was a huge bubble in the Japanese market in the 1980s, and many people were investing in Japan. Nomura Securities opened an office in New York, all these changes indicated a different era. There was more information and investment, people also knew about hedge funds. The market was rising, the whole world was different, and the MBAs started coming to work on Wall Street.

Critical Thinking and Execution

Grant Williams: I remember you wrote about Austria, and at that time, you mentioned a certain point, maybe in the late 1980s or early 1990s?

Jim Rogers: That was in the early 1980s, you reminded me of a story about interest rates. When I was young, I went to Oxford. In the college at Oxford, there were some American students, and we usually sat together. I remember we had a discussion at the American students' table, and everyone said they wanted to return to the U.S. to go into politics, some even wanted to become the President of the United States. And I told them, I wanted to be the "dwarf" in Zurich. I had no interest in being the President of the United States, but at that time, we thought the "dwarfs" in Zurich were some kind of mysterious figures, and we all thought these people in Switzerland were controlling the world. I wanted to be one of those people, to control all the wealth.

In the 1980s, I read some things about Austria, mentioning that Austria was going to take measures to encourage the development of the stock market. At that time, Austria didn't have much of a stock market, but by the 1980s, people started to realize the need for capital markets. I remember the Scandinavian countries also provided tax incentives, and the market went up as a result. So, I wanted to know more about Austria, so I called the largest bank in Austria at the time, called Credit Anstalt, you might remember it went bankrupt in 1931. But it was the largest bank in Central Europe, and some even said that its bankruptcy was one of the triggers for the Great Depression, but they reopened after the war.

I called the head of Credit Anstalt in New York and said I wanted to open an account to invest in the Austrian stock market. He said they didn't have a stock market in Austria. I immediately hung up the phone and booked a flight to Austria because I knew that if the head of the New York branch of this bank didn't know they had a stock market, then I had definitely found a big opportunity.

In Austria, government officials told me they were indeed preparing to introduce some measures, providing tax incentives to encourage people to invest in stocks. And Credit Anstalt Bank didn't have a real stock market department, there was only one person in charge of the stock market business. He was just assigned to a marginal position, clearly not on the promotion track. At that time, Austria only had 24 listed stocks, and I bought every single one of them.

There was a program called "Jim Rogersaron's Roundtable" at the time, where I explained why you should invest in Germany, and I talked a lot, such as Siemens being much cheaper than General Electric, and so on. I also said, if you really want to invest in Germany, you should go to Austria, because the Austrian market was still untapped, very cheap, and they were introducing policies to attract investors. Austrians were saving money, but no one was investing in stocks.

The person in charge of the stock market was late that day, didn't read Barron's, and knew nothing about what was happening. By around 11 o'clock, he arrived at the office and saw a pile of messages, all from buyers around the world. The Austrian stock market was soaring that year, and the market doubled.

Grant Williams: It's amazing that you were able to sit down, read some things, think about possibilities, and then take action, and these predictions actually came true. Although it sounds a bit crazy, this skill seems to be disappearing now.

Jim Rogers: It might be a lost skill. I recently bought stocks in Zimbabwe, I don't know if this decision will come true, but Zimbabwe is a mess right now. I read some content saying that Zimbabwe finally destroyed all its paper money, abandoned its own currency system, and adopted a dollarized economic model. So, I started buying stocks in Zimbabwe based on this theory: even though the situation is very bad, even Mugabe realized that there have been problems for the past 35 years. Southern Rhodesia was once the jewel of Africa and the British Empire, and Mugabe completely destroyed it.

Grant Williams: I also travel a lot and interact with many people, and now many people's time perspective is either 10 minutes or they exit after a 5% loss. No one really looks at long-term investments, even pension funds are struggling. For example, farmland is a good example, you have mentioned many times that in the future, the ones driving Ferraris will be the farmers. But people seem unable to understand this, because the time span is too long, or their investment strategy doesn't allow for such freedom to make long-term investments. In this highly compressed environment, how can you make money?

Jim Rogers: Grant, I don't have any committee to report to, and no one is pointing fingers at my decisions. You are one of the few people in the world who knew I invested in Zimbabwe two or three weeks ago. If we didn't have this conversation, I wouldn't have told anyone at the bar tonight that I bought stocks in Zimbabwe. What I want to say is, I don't have that pressure, I'm not interested in short-term matters, and I'm not good at short-term operations. I guarantee you, I am the worst short-term trader in the world, timing the market is not my strength. I know the benefits and opportunities of long-term investment, which is why I lean towards long-term investment. To put it bluntly, I'm lazy.

I don't know if my investment in Zimbabwe is right or wrong, we will know the answer in ten years. Even though we have Google now and information can be obtained instantly, one thing I have learned from life is that out of 100 people who hear the same story, only 4% or 5% can truly understand and make the right judgment. Most people will do the same as others, and usually this is not the right action. Even with information everywhere, you can't use Google to obtain "judgment."

The ability of critical thinking is learned through reading and studying various things, you learn how to think critically by reading news about Denmark because you need to piece together that information. Now, people hear a story about Zimbabwe, go to Google, look at the top three news headlines, and then make a decision based on a rough understanding. To be honest, I haven't Googled Zimbabwe, through my travels and life, I have some understanding of Zimbabwe.

I really wish I could figure out if I really have some kind of talent or skill, and I'm not even sure if I do. It would be great if I could sell this skill, this ability to "think around corners" is really useful. I have two kids, and I hope they can understand the essence of things and find ways to profit from them.

I think this is indeed a teachable skill. The problem is that people are not aware that it can be taught. I have worked with people from all over the world, and they have a very intuitive way of connecting the dots. They see a piece of news and can deduce the third and fourth layers of consequences in their minds. When everyone is reacting based on the headlines, they are already several steps ahead.

I have been a professor and a school teacher, and I know that even being a bad teacher takes a lot of time. Those who are good at teaching probably have other things to do, they may prefer to use this skill themselves rather than be a teacher, and I think the best teaching method is through practical examples and successful stories.

I once taught a class at Columbia based on this idea. I designed the class, pick a year at random, pick a stock or an industry, and try to predict what will happen, but only based on the information known at that time. For example, suppose it's January 18, 1982, and you choose the aviation industry. You have to tell me what will happen from now on, without using later information, and explain how you knew what would happen next. They usually look at the content of The Wall Street Journal six months later to make predictions, but I told them that wouldn't work, they had to go back to that time and predict what would happen to that company, that stock, or that industry in July 1982 based on the knowledge at that time. It was a successful teaching experience.

Grant Williams: Were there anyone in the class who immediately understood?

Jim Rogers: If it was the 1980s, maybe they only knew about the Brazilian footballer Socrates. Jim Rogers: These were MBA students, and I remember when I went there to teach, I thought these people were all highly educated, from prestigious universities, but what shocked me was that they didn't even know who Socrates was. I was really shocked at the time, it was my first encounter with graduate education, especially the "high-end" graduate education, and I realized how lacking most people are in basic knowledge.

Bullish on Russia

Grant Williams: I want to go back to your thoughts on Zimbabwe. Another place you have been paying attention to is Russia, I have also heard you talk about Russia, and I want to understand more about your experience in Siberia. What are the differences between the Russia you saw then and the Russia now? You are one of the few who still have a positive view of Russia, especially when everyone is saying Putin is finished, and the whole country is like a shaky house of cards. How do you view Russia now compared to then?

Jim Rogers: What you mentioned really resonated with me, everyone says Russia is done, and whenever I hear such a unanimous view, I stop and think that when everyone believes something, they are usually wrong. This is because I am older and more experienced, so I think this way.

I first went to Russia in 1966, with a group of Oxford University students. At that time, I felt that it was impossible to operate, and for the next few decades, I was very pessimistic about Russia. But I always wanted to ride a motorcycle around the world, and to truly do that, you have to go through the Soviet Union, and by then I had some qualifications, and then I started contacting Russia.

I went to the Rockefeller Center and found a contact related to Russia. I told him I wanted to ride a motorcycle through Russia, and his first reaction was to get out of here, but then he told me that there might be a government department that could help me, a very obscure department, he gave me a Russian address, I went home, put it on an envelope, and sent a letter to Moscow. There was no Google at the time, so I just sent a letter like that, saying I wanted to ride a motorcycle through Russia, and mentioned that I had already ridden through China, and I actually received a reply saying no problem. Of course, he didn't know that I had been knocking on this door for years, but this time he let me in.

So I flew to Moscow, and I didn't really believe he would approve it, this was the Cold War era of the Soviet Union, one of the worst periods. This was obviously a sign that the Soviet Union was starting to open up in some areas in the 1980s. If I were smarter at the time, I should have realized that this was a sign of change in the Soviet Union. Gorbachev's policy of openness was underway, and this was just part of it.

After completing this ride, my view of Russia became even more pessimistic because I knew the country's system couldn't function, my firsthand experience confirmed this. But around 2012 or 2013, I began to feel that there seemed to be changes within the Kremlin. Putin, although considered by many to be a thug, had indeed behaved that way, but I felt he had changed. So I started to feel optimistic about Russia, Russia has abundant resources, its currency is convertible, and it has almost no debt, while most similar countries have a lot of debt.

So I started investing in Russia, as usual, I was a bit lazy and didn't take action right away. Then the Ukraine crisis broke out, and I realized that this might lead to further price declines, but it also meant that I had to take action because the prices were plummeting. So I started increasing my investments in Russia, and I even became a director of a Russian company, a fertilizer company, and I am optimistic about agriculture.

Grant Williams: How do you deal with legal issues there? From the outside, it seems like a big problem in Russia, there is no reliable way to protect your assets unless you know the right people.

Jim Rogers: You will encounter such problems no matter where you invest, even in mature markets like the United States. I know we claim to have a perfect rule of law, but the more you delve into it, the more you realize that the law and the so-called "land of the free" are not as we were taught in high school or junior high. America is no longer the land of the free, and the rule of law is not as we were taught in the past. So how do you deal with it?

What rule of law is there in Zimbabwe? The rule of law in Zimbabwe is the will of Mugabe. Especially when you invest in emerging markets, you have to worry about these issues. If everything goes smoothly, then investing is too simple. I am sure there are indeed some changes within the Kremlin, although there may still be injustices in Russia now. I'm sure you will come back next week to tell me about injustices, but injustices happen every day in America too.

This is part of the overall judgment, and we will know if it is correct in 10 years. I think we can classify investments in Russia and frontier markets together because in the eyes of most people, Russia is almost back to that level. After 25 years, everyone understands the so-called evil capitalists. Investing in places like Zimbabwe or Russia does have risks. Faced with risks that you cannot eliminate, you must evaluate the relationship between risk and return to see if it is suitable for you.

One thing I have learned in my investment career is that if you find something cheap, even if you are wrong, you may not lose too much. You might lose everything, there is nothing that won't lose. But generally, if you find something cheap, you won't lose much. Look at Russia as a good example, right? No one wants to invest in Russia, right? It's very, very cheap. That's why even if I'm wrong, I hope I won't lose too much.

One of my largest positions right now is the Moscow Stock Exchange, which is at an all-time high. I also hold Aeroflot, although it's not at an all-time high, it's performing well, and I think part of the reason is that what I bought was very cheap. Just yesterday, I placed some buy orders in the Chinese market below market price, and they were executed two days ago, but now they have risen by 15%. This is a lesson I have learned many times: if something is really collapsing, if you have the courage to buy, you usually make money.

Grant Williams: That's interesting, I find that many people set "low price buy orders," but when the orders are executed, they panic. Just an hour ago, they said, "If I could buy at that price, I would keep buying." But when they buy and the price drops even lower within an hour, they start to panic.

Jim Rogers: Yes, but that's one of the reasons that distinguishes great investors from ordinary investors, the real difference is that those great investors can see value. The change in time does not mean a change in investment logic, if you think it's valuable at 20 yuan, and it used to be 40 yuan, if you buy at 20 yuan, even if it drops to 18 yuan, it still has value.

With experience, I have learned that if you find a way to buy during a panic, you usually get a return. In the past two days, I bought a lot of assets in panic in the Chinese market.

21st Century Asia is the Future

Grant Williams: Let's talk about China now, the current situation is really special. What are your thoughts on the current situation in China?

Jim Rogers: My current view is that the forces of evil are at work, especially those short-selling forces, although in reality, not many people are short-selling in China, and not many investors. If we eliminate those "evil short-sellers," I don't know who will be left.

The market trend is, you look at the charts, the market is rising straight up, it seems to be forming a bubble. My view is that although it is still a potential bubble, if it continues like this, it will definitely become a bubble eventually. I even said in a recent speech in China, if it continues to rise like this, you will have a bubble, and then we will all have to sell, and I don't want to sell my stocks. So I hope something will happen to calm down the overheated market.

The market has been rising straight up, many people are rushing into the stock market, many stocks are obviously ahead of themselves, there is speculation. Although margin loans themselves are not particularly dangerous in terms of numbers, there are reports of off-balance sheet margin lending, third-party market lending, and so on. Whatever happens, some kind of trigger has caused people to sell. Like any leveraged market, many people have to sell, the situation is completely out of control, it's so bad that some stocks have even stopped trading.

In China, you can apply to the exchange to stop trading your own stocks, which is not something that can be done in New York in the long term. But this has exacerbated the problem because those with loans or those who feel they must sell cannot sell the stocks that have stopped trading, so they have to sell other stocks, making the situation worse.

It is reported that they also used commodities, such as copper, for lending because they can easily use them as collateral. Now they have to sell copper because they cannot sell the stocks bought with copper as collateral. So they can only sell copper, creating a chain reaction. The government has taken some measures to try to calm the situation, but I hope they don't, even though my long positions are falling, I would rather the government let the market continue to fall rather than intervene to push it up. Because any artificially created situation is unstable, I hope the government allows the panic to be completely released.

I don't know if we have reached the natural bottom yet, the market has fallen by 30% in a month, maybe more. But I have seen these changes, so I told my broker to place this order and not tell me the result. But once it's executed, they still have to notify me. These days, my orders have been executed. Now I can't run around panic-selling stocks, and I don't want to sell them because they have started to rise.

Grant Williams: You have spent a lot of time in China. Do you think the leadership in China has the ability to successfully land? I'm not talking about the general sense of ability, but as capitalists, do they have the ability to do what the leadership in Western countries has failed to do for many years—make capitalism truly work?

Jim Rogers: They have not made capitalism work, they are intervening, taking various measures. I'm sure all the brokers are calling Beijing just like they do in New York, saying you have to save Western civilization, you have to save the market. The same thing is definitely happening in Shanghai, they are calling Beijing, saying our thousands of years of civilization are about to collapse unless you take action to save the stock market. I can see it because I see the measures they are taking to support the stock market.

I don't think this is the right approach, there is nothing more reliable than a real market bottom. If the market completely collapses, falls to a point where no one is selling anymore, that is a truly solid bottom, I hope they let that happen. Maybe the market has already naturally bottomed, but even so, these unstable artificial measures by the government still exist, such as stopping IPOs. But these IPOs will return sooner or later, and then what will happen?

Grant Williams: Let's put aside the stock market collapse for now and talk about another topic. Many people believe that China cannot successfully open its capital market, achieve currency convertibility, or let their leadership successfully manage the economy. But Stephanie Pomboy once said something to me that left a deep impression: no one believes that China can successfully manage their economy, yet they have confidence in Bernanke, Yellen, and Carney, believing that they can do the same thing. What do you think is the difference between the two?

Jim Rogers: I have no confidence in Bernanke and the others, I would say that China has been the most successful country in the past 30 years. 30 years ago, the United States was still a creditor nation, and now we are the world's largest debtor nation, not just the largest in the world, but the largest in history. China, on the other hand, was a country with no roads, nothing, 30 years ago I rode a motorcycle through there, and now it has become an amazing success story. So, at least the record of the past 30 years makes me believe that although they may make mistakes, they have a better chance of success.

You know, becoming a leader in China is a very difficult process. In the United States, you put on a nice suit, appear on TV, and you might become someone like Obama, going from a community organizer to the President of the United States. It's not like that in China, you have to start from a young age, start from the grassroots, and gain experience in various provinces. You have to manage city or provincial governments, and go through 50 to 60 years of training to reach the top in Beijing. Those at the top, whoever they are, have gone through long and arduous tests. Of course, this does not mean they will definitely have the ability to succeed, but it is certainly better than our system.

The United States became the most successful country in the 20th century, but in the process, we went through a terrible civil war, 15 economic downturns, almost no human rights, and the law rarely had an effect, there were large-scale massacres on the streets. Until the late 19th century, the United States was a mess, and foreigners were fleeing the country at that time. Remember the Barings Bank? Barings Bank invested a lot of money, and many people invested in the United States, and they were all deceived. Railway bonds and many other things were scams. Until the 1890s, the United States was not a symbol of virtue, but we eventually did very well and became the most successful country in the 20th century.

China will definitely make a lot of mistakes as well. But in 2015, I had more confidence in the leadership in Beijing than in the leadership in Washington.

Grant Williams: You have publicly stated that Asia is the future. You mentioned that you would take your family to Asia, hoping your children would learn Mandarin, and grow up in a place you believe has a huge future. What specifically prompted you to make this decision? Was it that you wanted to leave something, or that you wanted to go somewhere?

Jim Rogers: I was against having children for many years. I thought people with children were very pitiful, and I would never do such a foolish thing as having a child. I used to think, how could anyone ruin their own life by having children? I was completely wrong, 100% wrong, these little girls have brought me endless joy. In the past, when I saw people moving to another city for their children, I would think they were foolish.

But since my first visit to China, I started giving lectures and writing articles, saying that you should teach your children and grandchildren to learn Mandarin because it will be the most important country and language of the 21st century. In the end, we chose Singapore because it speaks both English and Mandarin, and I don't speak Mandarin, so I thought it was a good compromise. Education in Singapore is very good, and healthcare is great, everything is well-organized. But what I didn't expect was that English and Mandarin in Singapore are not very standard. Overall, Singapore is a good choice for us, purely to allow my daughters to grow up in Asia and learn fluent Mandarin, and to understand Asia. You can ask me again in 30 or 40 years to see if I made the right decision.

Emphasizing Agricultural Investment for Future Survival

Grant Williams: Long-term investment has always been one of your focuses, and agriculture is undoubtedly one of the longest-term investments. How do you view agricultural investment?

Jim Rogers: I believe there will be rewards in entering the agricultural field, in fact, there have been some successful cases, maybe you also know that some people have entered the agricultural field and started to make profits. Farmland used to be very cheap, and it is still cheap, but not as cheap as before because more and more people are making money through agriculture.

Why is this happening? Agriculture has been a terrible industry for the past 30 years, which is the first thing that caught my attention. Any industry that has been in trouble for a long time is worth a look. Of course, this does not mean it will definitely change, nor does it mean I should invest there just because Mugabe ruined Zimbabwe for 35 years. But any field that has been in trouble for a long time is worth exploring, and the situation in the agricultural industry is so bad that the number of farmers is decreasing.

The average age of farmers in the United States is 58, in Japan it is 66, Canada is the oldest country ever, and the average age of farmers in Australia is also 58. In the UK, the suicide rate among agricultural workers is the highest. In India, thousands of farmers commit suicide, maybe you also know. In the United States, there are many more people studying public relations than agriculture. Agriculture has become a nightmare, and no one wants to be a farmer. Everyone is getting out, which may mean huge opportunities.

Today, agricultural product prices are still significantly lower than they were 15 or 20 years ago, for example, the price of sugar has dropped by 75% from its all-time high. There are very few things in life that have dropped in price by 75% from 40 years ago, but sugar is one of them. No one wants to be a sugar farmer, but that doesn't mean the price won't drop another 80%, it could continue to fall. But if the situation continues to deteriorate, we will have no food to eat, or even clothes to wear.

Now, China has started to provide various incentives for its farmers because Mao Zedong ruined China's agriculture. Russia is the same, communism can ruin everything, and of course, Russian agriculture has been ruined as well. When you read some great Russian novels, you will find that the farmers at that time were like kings, they had many serfs and lived like kings, and agriculture was very developed. China also had a glorious agricultural era. Therefore, historically, farmers were a successful and wealthy class, but that has not been the case for the past 30 years.

Now, either we don't have enough food, or some changes will make agriculture flourish again. In my view, agriculture is a good investment area. And for those pessimists who believe the world is heading towards doomsday, owning a piece of farmland would be a good choice. If we really encounter chaos, you better have a piece of farmland and know how to plant seeds because that way you might survive.

Of course, this does not mean that farmers will not go bankrupt, they have gone bankrupt many times in the past. But ultimately, having productive land has always been a good thing.

Grant Williams: How do you approach this issue? The big picture idea is indeed great, the arguments you put forward are almost flawless, and it's hard to find any loopholes. But the next step is, how do you actually start operating?

Jim Rogers: The loopholes are very small. The only loophole is timing.

Grant Williams: So how do you approach investing? Do you think, "I want to buy land," or "I want to buy commodity futures"? Or just buy an ETF because it's easy. But you know, many people do it that way. And successful investors, I think one of the reasons for their success is that they don't just click to buy an ETF, but they find the best way to invest. What do you think is the best way?

Jim Rogers: The best way is to become a farmer, right? But I hope you have confidence, and that your land gets rain. Because if you don't have confidence, and the land doesn't get rain, you will go bankrupt, and you will become one of the horror stories of agriculture in the past 30 years. I didn't become a farmer myself because I know I would be a terrible farmer, and I'm not interested in being a farmer. So you can find a farmer and help them buy land, there are many ways to invest in the agricultural field.

Some agricultural companies are publicly listed, such as in Malaysia, Indonesia, and there used to be such companies in Africa. You can buy seed companies, fertilizer companies, tractor companies, and you can also buy agricultural futures or ETFs. There are other ways, for example, if agriculture performs well, cotton performs well, then the economy of Pakistan will perform well, so you can also invest in department store chains in Pakistan.

I myself owned a publicly listed farm company, which was just acquired by another farm company, luckily, I also owned that company. However, such companies are becoming fewer and fewer because they are too cheap, and they are acquiring each other.

Grant Williams: Combining all these experiences, along with the lessons you have learned over the years, as you sit here today, looking at the world, looking at the situation in Europe, the pressure facing China, and the seemingly avoiding of these pressures by the United States because everyone still believes the United States will be the ultimate dominant force, no one is worried about it. Based on your 50 years of investment experience, what is your view of the big picture? What are your thoughts?

Jim Rogers: First, make sure your children can speak Mandarin, make sure your grandchildren can speak Mandarin, make sure they understand Asia, this is the most important big picture. The 19th century was the century of Britain, the 20th century was the century of the United States, and the 21st century will be the century of China, whether we like it or not. This does not mean that there will be no problems.

I have been quoted as saying: if you were smart in 1807, you should move to London; if it was 1907, you should move to New York; if it was 2007, you should move to Asia. I moved to Asia in 2007, and I hope I am right. Maybe it won't necessarily be China, but there are huge opportunities here. The largest creditor nations in the world are China, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. This is where wealth is concentrated, there is drive, there is education, and these no longer exist in the West.

Do you know who the largest debtor nations in the world are, and their debt problems will only get worse. Greece's problem has been going on for five years, so-called austerity measures, but now the debt is higher than it was five years ago, where is the austerity? They are still complaining, but there has been no real change. Their pension plan is even more than in other EU countries, and they are still complaining about not being able to make the necessary adjustments. So, we are experiencing a huge shift towards Asia.

Throughout history, the United States has experienced an economic downturn every four to seven years, and all countries will experience economic downturns. The next problem will be more serious because debt is getting higher and higher. Although we have always been able to come out of difficulties, each time we come out, the debt is higher. This situation cannot continue indefinitely. Therefore, the next time there is a problem, I would rather be with the creditors, that is, Asia, rather than with those heavily indebted countries.

We always have economic problems, and it may sound strange, but it would be even stranger if we didn't experience economic difficulties and collapses. I suggest understanding creditor nations, understanding agriculture, because agriculture will survive - provided you find the right place. The United States has not had a 10% pullback for a long time, which is not a normal period. When the problem comes again, I am also very worried myself. This does not mean that I am fully prepared, nor does it mean that I will definitely survive, but I hope I can figure something out.

The places I have invested in recently are Russia, China, Japan, and Zimbabwe. These markets have been in a slump for a while, even the Chinese market is 30% lower than its recent high. This is not to say that we are talking about the US market, as the US stock market is at an all-time high. The markets I have invested in cannot guarantee safety, but at least they are currently at a low point. This does not mean they cannot continue to fall, but they have fallen a lot compared to others.

I will not put money into bonds. Bonds have been rising since hitting bottom in 1981, but they stopped rising after 2012. They have been rising for over 30 years. This does not mean they will not continue to rise, but if there is a bubble in the world, it is definitely the government bond market. If people start losing confidence in government bonds, the situation will become very bad. By then, all of us will be in trouble, desperately trying to survive.

Grant Williams: That's when we would hope to have a farm.

Jim Rogers: Yes, we would hope to have a farm. The world will undergo changes, but that's the beauty of the world: it always goes through these dramatic changes, and these changes bring opportunities. There is an old Chinese saying that crisis and opportunity are two sides of the same coin. So I hope I can survive the next crisis and turn it into an opportunity. I don't know if I can do it.

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