Three years of TOKEN2049, three eras of change, what hasn't changed is Bitcoin, what has changed is us.
By: Zhou Zhou, Foresight News
With over 20,000 main venue participants and more than 400 booths, Foresight News alone has counted 281 peripheral events… This year's TOKEN2049 is exceptionally lively.
The narrative has changed this year. NFT and the metaverse are the core narratives of 2022, Ethereum L2 is the hot topic of 2023, and now Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi are the ecosystems that people are most concerned about this year.
The main characters have changed this year. The crypto ecosystem is no longer dominated solely by American projects; Americans, Russians, and Chinese have all built their own crypto stages. Ethereum is no longer the absolute overlord, as the rise of Solana and TON has led people to believe that they have the opportunity to rival or even surpass Ethereum.
The capital has changed this year. The time when one could easily raise a round of investment by casually attending an event in 2023 has passed. Many entrepreneurs have found that there are not many investment institutions with sufficient funds this year and need to go to Europe and the United States to seek funding.
Three years of TOKEN2049, three completely different crypto industries. Bitcoin has remained unchanged, but the crypto industry has undergone tremendous changes.
1. "The Birth of the New Four Heavenly Kings"
In the past year, most of the hot events have revolved around the ecosystems of Solana, Base, TON, and BTCFi, and the same may be true in the coming year. The Matthew effect, where the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker. These four ecosystems have repeatedly demonstrated strong innovation and disruptive capabilities, showing a suction effect on capital, and will continue to be the focus of many entrepreneurs and investors.
However, some practitioners still express concerns about BTCFi. "UTXO is not suitable for large-scale applications." "BTCFi is more of a game of pyramid schemes, and the essence of earning interest ultimately makes later participants pay the bill. Where is its positivity?" Although the Bitcoin ecosystem has undergone nearly two years of development since the birth of Ordi, many practitioners still have concerns about the long-term sustainability of BTCFi.
2. Solana, the Most Dynamic Blockchain on Earth
Unknowingly, Solana has left many other public chains far behind in the pursuit of a larger market.
Solana may currently have the most projects in its ecosystem on mobile phones. A source related to Jupiter revealed to me that Jupiter will soon launch a mobile app. Currently, the largest NFT platform on Solana, Magic Eden, one of the largest wallets, Phantom, one of the largest DEX platforms, Backpack, and one of the largest Depin platforms on Solana have all launched mobile apps. From this perspective, compared to other crypto ecosystems, Solana's ecosystem projects have made more preparations to compete for a larger user base.
Solana is also the first public chain ecosystem to successfully implement Web3 on mobile phones (SAGA phone). During 2049, the JamboPhone 2 supported by the Solana ecosystem was officially launched on Solana Breakpoint; it is the first public chain ecosystem to make Depin successful (Helium) in this cycle; and it is the first ecosystem to make a meme platform strong (Pump.fun). It has recently strongly promoted the concept of PayFi.
The activity of the ecosystem has far surpassed other platforms, which may also be one of the reasons why Solana's ecosystem tokens account for 7 of the top 100 ecosystem tokens. Looking at the performance of the top 100 ecosystem tokens, Solana's ecosystem tokens still far exceed Base, TON, and BTCFi.
During this TOKEN2049, Solana's event, Solana Breakpoint, was widely publicized and considered by many to be the best peripheral event among hundreds of events, even rivaling the main venue of TOKEN2049.
Solana is still the most dynamic blockchain at present.
3. Telegram, Creating a "Global Version of WeChat," the "New Center" of the Crypto Industry
A source close to TOP revealed to me: Telegram will soon launch "video streaming" to fully replicate WeChat and create a global version of WeChat.
Currently, Telegram's "WeChat mini-program" has been initially successful, and the "Telegram version of WeChat Pay," TON, has also been successfully developed. Next, Telegram will focus on video to keep more users on Telegram.
In the cryptocurrency industry, Telegram's advantages cannot be replicated. Its users highly overlap with current cryptocurrency users. A frightening trend is that it may even become a "very important center" of the cryptocurrency industry. Currently, whether it's top exchanges like Binance, Bybit, Bitget, OKX, HashKey, Huobi, or some ecosystem projects like Blast, Base, Solana, they are all establishing mini-programs on Telegram to capture a large share of user traffic.
At this TOKEN2049, I found that the project teams doing Depin want to develop on Telegram, the project teams doing AI applications want to develop on Telegram, the project teams on Base and Blast want to develop small games and robots on Telegram, and even companies doing Web2 taxi businesses (TADA) also want to develop on Telegram. Whether it's Web2 or Web3, Telegram embraces them. Some investors even believe that Telegram's successful transformation this time may even turn Telegram itself into the largest Web3 social application.
TON and Telegram are two different things. However, in this process, TON will be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
The organization that holds the discourse power of the TON ecosystem is called TOP, which currently has about 200 members, most of whom are Russians. Some of the hottest projects in the TON ecosystem, such as Notcoin, Catizen, and Ston.fi, are all members of TOP. For entrepreneurs who want to gain the greatest support from the TON ecosystem, they need to contact TOP.
4. Behind the False Prosperity of Data, Bad Money Drives Out Good
The origin of the daily active address count in the millions on Base has always been a mystery. This problem also exists in various other ecosystems.
The night before TOKEN2049, I published a tweet titled "Has Base's Traffic Been Exaggerated?" mentioning that if a project already has millions of daily active addresses, haven't we already achieved the dream of blockchain mass adoption?
DUN data shows that the total number of addresses on Base has exceeded 44 million. On September 14th alone, there were 1.55 million active addresses on Base. However, are these data real? The analysis shows that the active addresses on that day should mainly come from Coinbase Wallet, Aerodrome, and cbBTC. But it is difficult to accurately estimate the number of real users from these sources.
I can only count 2472 holders for cbBTC on the day, with a total of 37,903 transfers; the most active pool on Aerodrome, WETH/USDC, had only 1,049 addresses interacting with it in the past 24 hours. Where do the 1.55 million active addresses come from? The blockchain's openness, transparency, and permissionless nature have always been praised as its advantages, yet it still cannot avoid the prevalence of false data.
After analyzing multiple data points including protocol revenue, I have confirmed that Base is currently the fastest-growing L2, but it does not change my opinion that Base's traffic is being exaggerated, even though it is not necessarily Base's doing.
Beyond Base, TON and Solana also face similar issues. For example, what are the real users of TON's small games? How many of the on-chain users are bots? How much of Solana's data is related to memes, and how much is from real applications? Yet, these mentioned blockchain ecosystems are still the best developed.
Behind the false prosperity of data, a more embarrassing issue arises. When we uncover the naked truth, it is too cruel. When the most real but bleak data is presented, will investors, retail traders, and builders still accept it calmly and continue to have confidence in it?
When the issue of survival arises, for many, the cost of deception will not be so high. The phenomenon of bad money driving out good continues to play out in the blockchain world.
5. Looking at the Future from Now, Five Directions to Achieve Mass Adoption
Finding Web3 products that can achieve mass adoption and identifying real use cases is still one of the most urgent and important tasks in the industry. After attending this year's TOKEN2049 and exchanging ideas with participants from various tracks, five possible directions were pointed out by the attendees.
One: Next-generation TG mini-games. Games like Catizen, with millions of users, have proven the potential of this track, and the next generation of TG mini-games is worth looking forward to.
Two: Prediction platforms like Polymarket, and products that change business forms due to changes in payment methods. Stablecoin USDT has already achieved mass adoption, and Web3 applications directly related to stablecoins may be the next products to achieve large-scale adoption. Currently, platforms like Base, Blast, TON, Wintermutue, DYDY, BitMEX, etc., have all launched prediction market platforms. Polymarket's model currently resembles a stock platform, and there is still a lack of a PVP version of the prediction market in the market. At the same time, TADA has also gained attention during TOKEN2049 due to its different payment methods.
Three: Web3 social networking, thriving and succeeding. Although Friend Tech failed, Warpcast is still persevering, and there are more projects in the Farcaster protocol yet to be discovered. While hiking with StepN founder Yawn, he mentioned that he is seriously considering the possibility of map-based social networking.
Four: TADA, transitioning from Web2 real-world scenarios to Web3. The founder of TADA is a Korean who later worked in cross-border transportation in Hong Kong, then built the second largest taxi company in Singapore, with a market presence in many Southeast Asian countries. In the future, there may be more Web2 companies with a cross-border focus, developing businesses that can thrive in both traditional stock markets and the cryptocurrency market. TADA issued its coin, MVL, in 2018, and its current market value is close to $100 million. This may also be one of the reasons why it has been able to capture the market in Singapore's taxi market at such low costs.
Five: RWA and Depin. These two tracks also provide excellent entry points for more traditional world funds to enter the crypto industry. During this TOKEN2049, some investors compared RWA and Depin, believing that although the progress of these two tracks may be relatively slow, they have a better chance of realizing the vision of large-scale products. "If you can use tokens to easily buy stocks in Japan, funds in Hong Kong, bonds in the United States, and real estate in Europe, this will be a huge market, and most investors don't really care which platform they trade on," one practitioner said.
Of course, in silence, I believe that truly mass adoption products are still quietly growing in some corner.
6. The Crypto World is a Huge Blind Date Market
"The crypto world is a huge blind date market," said Vivi, from the TON public chain.
Vivi said, "Everyone wants to develop on a good public chain, but it may not be worth it to approach it with the intention of seeking benefits. There are only so many resources for good public chains, and they will not be allocated to ordinary entrepreneurs." It is worth mentioning that, although a slightly inferior public chain ecosystem may provide more support to ordinary Web3 projects, the probability of success in these ecosystems is relatively low.
"In the blind date market between public chains and entrepreneurs, both sides do not want to lose out. The weaker side often wants to take advantage, but they need to think about why, as the stronger side is not foolish," Vivi said.
For ordinary entrepreneurs, giving up illusions and surviving in a weaker ecosystem when resources are lacking is the way to go. For ordinary public chains, it is about allocating more resources to a few top projects, attracting more projects with more funds, rather than "freeloading."
Fortunately, the current public chain ecosystem offers a rich selection for entrepreneurs:
- L1: Ethereum, Solana, TON, Sui, Aptos, Sei, berachain, Zetachain, Aleo, TRON, etc.
- L2: Base, Arbitrum, ZK, Scroll, Blast, Scroll, HashKey Chain, BSC, Morph, etc.
The crypto world is a huge blind date market. For ordinary entrepreneurs, it is necessary to invest when no one is paying attention, to seize an early core position in the potential public chain ecosystem. When it (the public chain) has become successful, consider whether you (the project) are also successful. Conversely, the same applies.
7. Entrepreneurs are Lonely and Need to Band Together
During TOKEN2049, I attended the closing meeting of the third phase of the Web3 incubator, Wanwudao's Creation Camp. The participants were all founders of Web3 startups, many of whom were in the early stages of project development.
Wanwudao has opened seven sections, including: TON, Solana, BTC, ETH, AI, Depin, RWA, etc., each section recruits entrepreneurs from the corresponding track, and each section has a "leader" in the track serving as the core coach. Of course, when the mentor is no longer suitable, they can be replaced.
Some entrepreneurs asked me if they should join an incubator, and I also asked many entrepreneurs in the incubation camp why they came to the camp. They all had their own answers, but the meaning they expressed was basically the same: entrepreneurs are too lonely and just want to talk to like-minded people.
Entrepreneurs are the future of the industry, their qualities are the qualities of the future industry, and their qualities are the qualities of the future industry. They need more communication, more cooperation, and perhaps this is the significance of a series of "industry infrastructure" such as TOEKN2049, Web3 incubators, etc.
8. This May Be the Most Lively TOKEN2049 in Years
With over 20,000 main venue participants, more than 400 booths, and Foresight News alone counting 281 peripheral events, this year's TOKEN2049 not only had a large number of participants, doubling from last year, but also saw many peripheral events reaching new heights.
For example, at Solana Breakpoint, Solana co-founder toly said it was the best Breakpoint so far, with singing, dancing, rap, and games creating a lively atmosphere. Another example is the global premiere of the immersive crypto-themed play "Decode: Legacy" hosted by HashKey Capital, turning Crypto into a literary work. Projects like StepN and HashKey Capital also organized hiking activities in parks in Singapore.
The ecosystems with the most events this time include Solana, Base, BTCFi, and TON; and the institutions with the most events include Bitget, HashKey, and others.
For instance, Bitget hosted a total of 9 events during TOKEN2049, including a joint music festival with 2000 attendees, a CEO meet-up, a signing ceremony for a partnership with the Spanish league, and 5 meet-ups with channels and KOLs from various regions (Turkey, CIS, SEA, EN), among others. This does not include conferences organized by companies related to Bitget Wallet, Morph, and others.
HashKey Group announced 10 peripheral events for TOKEN2049, including hiking, immersive crypto-themed plays, TON, AI, and other themed activities. Similarly, Base hosted a total of 6 events during TOKEN2049.
As one of the fastest-growing and largest institutions in the past year, they spared no effort to showcase their strength at this TOKEN2049.
9. Three Years of TOKEN2049, Three Rounds of Era Changes
The development of Crypto is ever-changing, and the past three years of TOKEN2049 have felt like three completely different eras in the crypto industry.
In 2022, NFTs and the Metaverse were the mainstream tracks at TOKEN2049. At that time, there was a severe inequality between Eastern and Western projects, with Western VCs almost no longer considering Eastern projects, leading to growing pessimism among Chinese projects. During this period of market volatility, especially with the collapse of FTX and Luna, the credibility of the crypto industry was severely damaged, leading to governments tightening crypto policies in multiple countries, and some people felt that the industry was doomed.
In 2023, apart from Ordi, there were hardly any new developments at TOKEN2049, but during this time, some true builders were actually optimistic about the future. Many VCs made significant investments, hoping to position themselves early in the market cycle and reap the rewards during the bull market. "After attending TOKEN2049 or any other event, the project team suddenly raised a lot of funds," said one investor.
In 2024, Solana, Base, and TON rose to prominence. However, for a long time, memes were rampant, and VC coins were heavily affected by FUD. During this TOKEN2049, there was a situation where there wasn't much money available for investment in the primary market. Nevertheless, many industry practitioners are still hopeful for a major bull market in 2025. Beyond hope, more industry practitioners are starting to take a rational view of the industry's development, advocating for more Web3 building ideas rather than a mindset of simply following the market cycle for profit.
Three years of TOKEN2049, three rounds of era changes. What remains unchanged is Bitcoin, but what has changed is us. Along this road, tides rise and fall, people come and go. We have come a long way, and there is still a long road waiting for us.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
