Top-notch expert features: super diamond hands, 40%-45% win rate, profit-loss ratio of 1:5 or higher.

Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Star Daily

Recently, the Ethereum Meme craze has made a comeback, and on-chain Gas has also seen a recovery. On the other hand, compared to other chains, the Meme market atmosphere and players on Ethereum tend to lean more towards "diamond hands". Are the real winners "diamond hands" or PvP experts? What are their data characteristics?

In this article, Odaily Star Daily combed through the top 100 profit addresses of twenty Meme tokens, including various tokens such as BURGER with a market value of millions of dollars, DOGE with tens of millions of dollars, and Nerio and MOG with a market value of over a billion dollars, analyzing their multidimensional characteristics.

Data Source and Processing Explanation

The data of each wallet in this article comes from GMGN. The unmodified basic data includes 7-day profit, 30-day profit, 30-day win rate, and wallet balance. Customized data includes:

• Total profit: Due to the deviation in the total profit data of a large number of addresses on GMGN, this article uses the profit value obtained by subtracting the "top ten tokens with the most losses" from the "top ten tokens with the most profit" as the total profit, and if there are fewer than ten, the calculation is based on the actual number.
• Top profit: Tokens marked as "insufficient liquidity" on GMGN but with large profits are excluded, as these are mostly scam tokens with falsified market values. Then, the profit values of the top 1, 3, and 5 tokens are separately counted, as well as the losses.
• Average profit per purchase/sale: 30-day total profit ÷ number of purchases/sales within 30 days.

In addition, this article manually removed duplicate addresses, addresses that obtained a large number of tokens through transfers (the profit calculation for such addresses may be problematic), and MEV Bot addresses, resulting in a total of 1581 addresses.

Wallet Data Analysis

How many diamond hands are there?

• The total profit of the 1581 addresses analyzed is $208 million, with an average profit of $131,900;
• The top 1 profitable token brought in $190 million in profit for these addresses, with an average profit of $120,700;
• The top 1 losing token resulted in a total loss of $30.9 million, with an average loss of $19,500.

It can be seen that these "smart money" performs well in terms of profit-loss ratio, requiring only a 14% win rate to break even at a 600% profit-loss ratio.

Furthermore, Odaily divided the addresses based on the different total profit amounts and added top 3 and top 5 profit-loss analyses, with the results shown in the following figure:

• The higher the total profit of the address, the higher the profit-loss ratio or "diamond hands level";
• The profit-loss ratio of the top 1 is higher than that of the top 3 and 5, indicating that these "smart money" addresses often achieve large profits through individual tokens.

How often do diamond hands trade?

Furthermore, addresses with an ETH balance of less than 0.1 ETH or no transactions within 30 days were excluded, and it was found that all addresses traded an average of 337 times within 30 days, with details of the total profit intervals shown in the table below:

• Surprisingly, the most profitable addresses trade much more frequently than other intervals, perhaps indicating that these addresses are more actively seeking opportunities;
• The profit from each trade of the most profitable addresses far exceeds that of other addresses, mainly due to a few addresses making several purchases of tokens worth tens of thousands of dollars before Nerio was listed on Binance, resulting in exceptionally high average profits per address;
• Addresses with profits of over $100,000 have a significantly smaller "average profit per sale ÷ average profit per purchase" than other intervals, indicating that these addresses tend to make low-frequency purchases and then sell in batches.

Interpretation of Win Rate and Profit

Similarly, the mean win rate, 7-day profit, and 30-day profit for each interval were analyzed, with the results shown in the table below:

• It can be seen that, unlike Solana, the win rates of profitable addresses in each interval are not particularly high. Combining the previous two sections, while maintaining a certain win rate, the focus should be on expanding the profit-loss ratio.

(Detailed analysis of "smart money" in Solana can be found in "Insight into 1,000 Solana 'Smart Wallets': Who is Making a Killing? What Can We Learn from Them?")

• For addresses with profits of over $200,000, the 7-day profit and 30-day profit are very close, mainly due to some addresses making substantial profits on Nerio in recent days. This means that addresses in the $50,000-$200,000 profit range slightly outperform in terms of sustained profit-making ability, and readers who prefer this strategy should pay attention to it.
• Losing addresses can have a low win rate and sustained losses, and can also be used as a "contrary indicator" for reference.

Appendix

The complete data of Ethereum "smart addresses" is as follows:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FFkd-eu9oTKgEhbUJ9X6kcwQMhromkFd65Is_M8FzZ0/edit?usp=sharing

The complete data of Solana "smart money" analyzed in July is as follows:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HIKLZF-XKf2EFcj-nvBX3Lj_HapQ-UqMeIgLJCtEN_0/edit?usp=sharing

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