Halving time from BTC bottom to top is over 500 days, and it has worked in the last 5 times. Will this rule fail in the next time?

Author: Zhou Zhou, Foresight News

Is the four-year cycle driven by BTC halving still effective?

Reviewing the previous three encrypted cycles: the first cycle peak: December 2013; the second cycle peak: December 2017; the third cycle peak: November 2021… In the previous three cycles, BTC strictly followed the four-year cycle, repeating itself.

Moreover, the time from halving to BTC bottom and top is over 500 days, and it has worked in the last 5 times. For example, the time from halving to the lowest point of this cycle is 517 days.

However, recently, as BTC fell to 52,000 U, market sentiment was low, and some practitioners believe that BTC will break the four-year cycle rule. Reasons include but are not limited to:

1. This cycle, BTC price broke through historical highs before halving. Historically, BTC has only broken through historical highs after halving (Anomaly 1)
2. In the four months after each halving, BTC performed the worst in this cycle (Anomaly 2)
3. The impact of halving is greater in the early stages, and weakens as time goes on (Internal factor)
4. External macro events are gradually increasing in influence on Bitcoin, gradually dominating BTC (External factor)

Under the influence of internal and external factors, as well as the occurrence of multiple anomalies, practitioners have deep doubts about the four-year cycle rule of Bitcoin after halving.

However, the above reasons are not entirely valid. Some reasons actually prove the effectiveness of the four-year encrypted cycle rule.

From the perspective of phenomena, anomalies 1 and 2 are not decisive phenomena.

Anomaly 1, the reason why BTC broke through historical highs before halving is due to events such as Bitcoin ETF driving the market, combined with market expectations before halving.

Anomaly 2, due to the previous rapid rise in BTC, which overdrew the future, the recent decline is actually a return to normal trends.

What is more noteworthy are three other phenomena:

Phenomenon 1: In the previous cycle, why did BTC adhere to the four-year cycle driven by halving, even when encountering the "519 Crash" and the "NFT Bull Market"?

In 2021, due to policy reasons, the "519 Crash" did not directly lead BTC into a bear market, but it reached a peak again in November.

In the six months after BTC reached its peak in November, NFT prices continued to rise for 6 months. This means that although Web3 is still very hot and Web3 applications are still in a bull market, BTC has already entered a bear market for half a year.

These two major anomalies still did not change the four-year cycle rule of BTC.

Phenomenon 2: The rule of "bear market lasts only one year" has not been broken in this cycle. The lowest point of this cycle, from the previous peak of BTC, lasted for one year.

Phenomenon 3: The time from halving to BTC bottom and top is over 500 days, and it has worked in the last 5 times.

The time from halving to BTC bottom and top is over 500 days, and this rule has not been broken since 2015, including the most recent bottom time.

• The first halving time was November 28, 2012. One year later, the bull market ended on December 5, 2013.
• The second halving time was July 9, 2016. One year and 3 months later, the bull market ended in December 2017. 547 days to the bottom before halving, and 518 days to the top after halving.
• The third halving time was May 11, 2020. One year and 6 months later, the bull market ended in November 2021. 517 days to the bottom before halving, and 549 days to the top after halving.
• The fourth halving time will be in April 2024. BTC reached the bottom 517 days before the halving in 2024.
• …….

Bitcoin halving still dominates the encrypted cycle, and external factors often revolve around internal factors. When external factors temporarily deviate from the trend (when prices are too high), internal factors will always pull BTC back on track.

After halving, the time it takes for BTC to break through the previous high is getting longer. According to normal time, BTC should reach the price of the previous cycle peak at the end of 2024, which is 68,000 U. But due to the impact of the American Bitcoin ETF event, BTC broke through 68,000 U ahead of schedule.

In January, before the halving in April, American Wall Street institutions took advantage of the impact of halving and passed the ETF, leveraging the benefits of reduced BTC inflation and price increases after halving.

One inaccurate statement is: ETF is the main reason for the rise of BTC in the first half of the year. The accurate statement is: The American Bitcoin ETF passed in conjunction with the halving rule is the main reason for the significant rise of BTC in the first half of the year.

And the four months after this halving, BTC's performance was poor, which is precisely the effect of the internal factor (halving).

External factors (ETF) often revolve around internal factors (halving). When external factors temporarily deviate from the trend (when prices are too high), internal factors will always pull BTC back on track.

According to the above, if the four-year cycle rule still holds, what will happen?

1. BTC will reach its historical peak around December 2025. (This number comes from: 1. BTC reaches its peak every four years, 2. According to the rule of phenomenon 3, the bull market after BTC halving is getting longer, reaching its peak one year and nine months after halving.)

2. The highest point of BTC's price will be around 110,000 U. (The most conservative number calculated by ChatGDP based on historical lowest and highest points)

3. The main narrative of this cycle has not yet appeared, which is a normal phenomenon.

Just as the main narrative of the previous cycle, the explosion of NFT, occurred less than half a year before the end of the BTC bull market. One of the earliest NFT avatars, BAYC, was born in May 2021, less than 6 months before the peak of the bull market.

An even more counterintuitive event is that Azuki, born in January 2022, went online in the second month of the bear market, and the wildly popular StepN had just received financing at that time.

When StepN and NFT were at their peak, BTC had already plummeted, and the bear market had quietly passed half of its time.

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