Bitcoin’s recent price drop to around $53,000 has led to substantial losses for new and large investors, with nearly $1 billion realized in July alone, according to cryptoquant.com. This downturn has also resulted in traders facing their most negative unrealized profit margins since the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022. Despite this, whales have been increasing their bitcoin holdings at the fastest monthly rate since April 2023, indicating a potential rise in demand for the cryptocurrency.

Source: Cryptoquant report called “Pivotal Point: Positive and Negative Conditions For Bitcoin to Bottom-out.”

However, the overall market outlook remains uncertain. The Profit & Loss (P&L) Index, a key valuation metric, is hovering around its 365-day moving average. Historically, the report says a crossover below this average has been associated with major market corrections or the onset of bear markets. Furthermore, stablecoin liquidity, a crucial factor for a bitcoin price rally, has not shown significant growth. While USDC’s market cap has increased by 5.6%, USDT’s market cap remains stagnant, potentially delaying or dampening a substantial price recovery for bitcoin.

Adding to the complexity, mid and large-sized bitcoin miners continue to sell portions of their holdings, contributing to the ongoing capitulation process. Since June 20, large miners have sold approximately $300 million worth of bitcoin, while mid-sized miners have unloaded around $500 million on a cost basis. As the market stands at this critical juncture, the actions of these miners and the broader market dynamics will play a pivotal role in determining bitcoin’s future trajectory.

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