Despite Bitcoin's recent poor performance, it has still achieved a positive return of over 40% since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the majority of traditional financial assets.

The mining community plays an important role in the Bitcoin network, but due to the impact of the halving event and the waning interest in concepts such as glyphs and runes, transaction fees have been significantly reduced, leading to a pessimistic income situation for the mining community. The unit computing power income is currently at historically low levels. According to OKLink data, over the past two months, the unit computing power income of the Bitcoin network has dropped below $0.05 multiple times, and although there have been brief rebounds during this period, it has once again fallen to a relatively low point.

Due to the deteriorating income situation, many inefficient miners have been forced to exit the market, resulting in a significant decrease in Bitcoin's computing power. OKLink data shows that over the past two months, the overall computing power of Bitcoin has decreased by 15% from its peak, and in the past week, it has been in a continuous state of decline.

At the same time as the decline in computing power, the mining community has also increased its selling pressure recently, becoming one of the largest selling pressures in the market. According to IntoTheBlock data, Bitcoin miners have sold over 50,000 Bitcoins since 2024, and the Bitcoin reserves held by miners have gradually decreased to the lowest level in history. Compared to the previous cycle, where miners tended to be over-leveraged and hold for the long term, miners are now more focused on short-term gains. This may be related to the fact that with the restructuring of computing power, many publicly listed companies have become important drivers of the scale and mainstream development of the mining industry.

The compensation plan announced by the Mt.Gox trustee on June 24th has also brought about significant selling pressure expectations. This is not the first time that Mt.Gox has repaid its debts, but it is the first time that it has done so in the form of BTC and BCH. This means that after the compensation begins, a large amount of BTC and BCH will flow into the market. However, many analysts believe that the selling pressure caused by the Mt.Gox compensation plan will be less than expected, and the author agrees with this. The reasons are as follows:

1. The final amount of Bitcoin flowing into the market from this compensation is expected to be much lower than 140,000, with Galaxy Digital's research director Alex Thorn estimating it to be around 65,000.
2. After the compensation is completed, the selling pressure will be dispersed. In theory, creditors will not all sell at the same time in the short term. In addition, the market has already absorbed some of the selling expectations brought about by Mt.Gox, so the ultimate impact will not be as significant as imagined. More importantly, considering the current stage of the market, rational creditors may be more inclined to continue holding rather than selling immediately.

Regardless of the selling pressure that may arise from the mining community or the Mt.Gox compensation, we believe that the impact on the cryptocurrency market is short-term and limited. Experience from the past decade tells us that despite many challenges, as the most robust consensus in the cryptocurrency market, the Bitcoin ecosystem has always had strong market resilience and elasticity. Therefore, short-term selling pressure will not change the long-term trend, but will instead enhance the Bitcoin ecosystem's ability to adapt to large-scale flows. Rather than focusing on short-term selling pressure, the current "bleak" situation of Bitcoin on-chain transactions and liquidity should be of greater concern.

Despite Bitcoin's recent poor performance, it has still achieved a positive return of over 40% since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the majority of traditional financial assets. However, after reaching a historic high in March, Bitcoin network transaction volume (left chart) has continued to decline. This is partly due to the waning interest in glyphs, runes, and other factors leading to reduced transaction demand, and also because there has been no strong trading demand from both short-term speculators and long-term investors in the current price range, resulting in a consistently low on-chain turnover rate. The number of active addresses on the chain (right chart) has also seen a significant decline after March, with the current number of active addresses being less than 700,000, a decrease of over 30% from the peak in 2024, and almost the same as in the same period in 2018.

In addition to the sluggish on-chain transactions, Bitcoin spot ETFs have also shown relatively weak performance recently. As the main channel for the cryptocurrency market to obtain external liquidity in the current cycle, Bitcoin spot ETFs are also an important carrier of the optimistic sentiment for the future. Previously, JPMorgan estimated that the net inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market this year reached $12 billion, with Bitcoin spot ETFs accounting for about $16 billion. However, after entering June, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several days, with a cumulative outflow of nearly 20,000 Bitcoins from June 7th to the present (as of June 25th), equivalent to approximately $1.228 billion at the current price. This performance is unsatisfactory for the market, and the "quiet" handling of seized Bitcoins by the governments of Germany and the United States has inevitably tightened the market's nerves.

Although the above data seems to indicate that Bitcoin has fallen into a "predicament," there are also many positive signs in the market. One of the important characteristics of reaching the top in previous cycles is a significant increase in the proportion of short-term holders (holding for less than 155 days), even dominating the market. This is because in the process of reaching the top, long-term holders will gradually choose to take profits and exit, leading to the market being controlled by short-term investors and newcomers. However, according to OKLink data, the Bitcoin market is still dominated by long-term holders, with less than 20% of Bitcoins held for less than 6 months, a proportion much lower than the proportion of short-term holders near the top of the previous cycle. This market structure dominated by long-term holders provides stable support for Bitcoin in the current range. Considering that nearly 80% of the circulating Bitcoins are currently in a profitable state, most investors are still in a favorable position, so theoretically, there should not be a large-scale sell-off in the short term.

On the other hand, the Bitcoin reserves of exchanges also hit a new low in June. Although it is a low point, the state of low reserves on exchanges actually sends a clear signal that the selling pressure on Bitcoin is not actually high. At the same time, the low reserves on exchanges also indicate that the Bitcoin market is in a period of rapid accumulation, although we do not fully understand the structure of the group taking Bitcoins away from exchanges.

Of course, the progress of the Ethereum spot ETF in the United States is also worth paying attention to. Although the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased, it still remains above 0.8, indicating that the mutual influence between the two is very significant. If the Ethereum spot ETF can drive a rebound in Ethereum after it officially starts trading in early July, Bitcoin may also gain some upward momentum from it.

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