1. After experiencing the roller coaster of the last bull market, I was left with only scraps after holding onto hot coins that plummeted. This time, there are new offerings, airdrops, inscriptions, and runes, causing anxiety as I try various methods but fail to outperform the market.

I believe this statement applies to the vast majority of investors. Moreover, this pattern has been proven countless times, and I even consider it very close to the truth.

In my experience, it not only applies to the cryptocurrency market but also to the traditional stock market.

In the traditional stock market, especially the US stock market, the famous bet case of Warren Buffett and historical data have shown that over 80% of investors, including the majority of Wall Street fund managers, have not performed as well as the Dow Jones Index (the market).

In the cryptocurrency market, I think it is even more so.

Investors who have experienced at least two (three, the more the better) bull markets may want to carefully review:

Let's take a look at the returns brought to us by Bitcoin and Ethereum separately, and then see the returns brought to us by the coins bought in the hot market. Let's see on average whether Bitcoin and Ethereum have brought us higher returns or if other miscellaneous altcoins have brought us higher returns.

I believe that for the vast majority of retail investors, it is probably Bitcoin and Ethereum that have brought us higher returns.

I do not deny that in these bull markets, we may have bought miscellaneous altcoins that have brought us returns far exceeding those of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I have also had such examples, but I am more inclined to consider these "achievements" as luck, and increasingly less inclined to believe that it is truly my ability.

Moreover, the majority of those who can make money in this kind of luck are the courageous individuals who dare to be the first to take the risk and can persist until the end, rather than the general public who follow the trend and buy into hotspots later.

The majority of these courageous individuals who dare to be the first to take the risk and can persist until the end are mostly negated by the environment and not understood by those around them.

How many people can understand the agony they have to endure while persisting alone in that kind of environment?

So even if one can encounter this kind of luck, the process is also very painful, and I do not think it belongs to the general public.

2. The consensus of leeks is also a consensus

This kind of statement originated from X, Xiao Lai.

Many times, this statement is easily understood by people as: as long as something has the consensus of the public, regardless of what the consensus is, it is valuable and meaningful.

So in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, many people will unquestionably believe that any coin, as long as it has "consensus," will have "value."

I reserve my judgment on this kind of understanding. Because many times, this kind of consensus can be more colloquially referred to as the herd effect. And the herd effect is harmful in the investment market most of the time, rather than being valuable.

It is precisely because of the herd effect that when the market remains hot, everyone will be more convinced that prices will continue to rise, pushing the market to even more irrational heights; and when the market continues to cool down, everyone will be more convinced that prices will continue to fall, pushing the market to even more unpredictable lows.

All of these are the effects of this kind of "consensus."

But this kind of consensus often reflects the irrationality of the market, which in my opinion, rational investors should strive to avoid, and often we need to operate against this kind of "consensus."

Another common viewpoint is:

Many people attribute the consensus formed by Bitcoin today to the "consensus" of "leeks," as if without this "consensus," Bitcoin would not have the value it has today.

I cannot say that this viewpoint is incorrect, but I believe the more fundamental reason is that there has always been a small group of elites in human society tirelessly pursuing the most precious, pure, and simple values in human thought: equality, privacy, and freedom.

This arduous quest was ultimately transformed by a small group of geniuses into a masterpiece created by technical means.

And this value formed the most invaluable core of Bitcoin.

Consensus is just the process of continuously adding value around this core value.

Without this core value, consensus cannot play a role, and cannot be sustained—this is also why the so-called "value" of most altcoins is at best short-lived and cannot be maintained in the long term. Because they do not possess the invaluable core value of Bitcoin, so even if there is consensus, the consensus cannot be firmly consolidated and added.

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