On the afternoon of June 6th, AICoin researchers conducted a live graphic and text sharing session titled "Can BNB Lead the Bull Market Again? (Membership Giveaway)" in the AICoin PC-end - Group Chat - Live. Here is a summary of the live content.
I. Recent Trend of BNB
This news focuses on BNB, the main trading currency of Binance exchange. At the time of the news deadline yesterday, it was at a critical price support point ($696).
In simple terms, if BNB can maintain stability above this price, it may further rise to the two large order accumulation points above ($726 or $750).
Conversely, if this support level is not held, the price may drop to the second support level ($662).
During the recent price increase of BNB, the market noticed a phenomenon: the main force set a large number of sell orders (sell walls) at high prices. The total amount of these sell orders reached $53.02 million, indicating significant market manipulation. Moreover, several of these sell orders have a duration of more than 10 days, indicating a strong bullish expectation from the sellers when placing the orders.
II. Key Concept Analysis
1. Chip Support Level
The support level acts as a safety cushion to prevent prices from falling too quickly. It has a large number of buy orders below a certain price level, which serves as a resistance point when the market moves downward.
Large orders can be set here.
Periods can be set here.
2. Main Force Sell Walls
Refers to large players placing a large number of sell orders at a certain price point, creating a resistance point in the market.
3. Full Depth
Visually displays the current order situation at different price levels, with higher peaks indicating a higher corresponding order volume. It can be used as a reference to find market support and resistance levels.
So, how can we determine if a support level is stable?
There is no strict time requirement for a price to "stabilize" at a support level. However, several key factors can be considered to judge whether the price is stable at a support level:
① Look at the duration: Generally, if the price stays near a support level for a period of time without breaking through, it may indicate that the support level is relatively strong. This "period of time" can be several hours, a day, or longer, depending on the time frame of the analysis. For example, on a daily chart, it may take several days to confirm, while on an hourly chart, sometimes only a few hours of performance can start the evaluation.
② Look for price rebounds: If the price shows a significant rebound after reaching a support level, this is usually a good sign that the support level is effective. The magnitude and strength of the rebound can be used as a measure of the support level's strength.
③ Look at trading volume: Observing the trading volume near the support level is also crucial. Ideally, when the price approaches a support level, the trading volume should increase as buyers enter the market to prevent further price declines. An increase in trading volume can be seen as confirmation of the effectiveness of the support level.
④ Combining the use of other technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average (MA), Bollinger Bands, etc., can provide additional evidence of whether the support level is strong.
⑤ Market sentiment and news: Sometimes market sentiment and the latest economic or political news can also affect the effectiveness of the support level. Being sensitive to these factors can help you better understand whether the support level is likely to be maintained. (What is the latest news on BNB? Search directly here)
- Main Force Large Orders
Large orders refer to large transactions conducted in the market by large or institutional investors. Main force large orders are a tool for detecting large trading activities in the market. These indicators help us discover the buying and selling activities of major forces (such as institutions or large fund holders) in the market.
III. How to Analyze the Market in the Current News Context?
When the market information shows that the main force is unloading at a high price ($696 and above), and the full depth shows a large number of orders at higher prices ($726, $750), with chips distributed at $696 forming strong support, and trading volume significantly increasing at these key points, investors can make decisions based on this information.
First, if the $696 support level holds, meaning the price remains stable above $696, consider buying in the short term and set a target price of $726 or higher, adjusting based on market depth and large order trends in a timely manner.
Second, if the $696 support level fails to hold, observe whether $662 can form a new support. The strategy may shift to observation or consider buying after confirming the new support.
IV. BNB Market Performance and Future Trend Analysis
1. Recent Market Performance of BNB
BNB recently reached a new high of $718, surpassing the annual high of $646 in March. This shows a relatively strong market momentum in the recent period. BNB has become the mainstream currency to break through the previous bull market high point after Bitcoin! At the same time, BNB's market value has also exceeded $100 billion, making it the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market value.
Currently, BNB's market value has reached $103.46 billion, surpassing the coffee industry giant Starbucks (with a market value of approximately $91.92 billion).
Compared to other major cryptocurrencies, BNB's performance is leading, also reflected in the significant growth of its market value and trading volume. (Here, data from our market cloud chart is used).
2. BNB Trend: Expert Predictions and Market Confidence Analysis
Analyst "Sheldon The Sniper" posted on the morning of June 4th, stating that BNB is expected to be the leading altcoin in the current bull market, predicting that the BNB price is likely to rise to $1,000.
The next day, BNB also broke through $700. So, as the expert said, will BNB be the main driving force for the rise of other altcoins?
Let's take a look at what another analyst, Kaleo, said. BNB is about to enter a "price discovery phase," indicating that a new price high may form. What is the "price discovery phase"? With everyone focusing on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), BNB is on the edge of entering the price discovery phase. When the market's main focus is on other cryptocurrencies, BNB may not receive equal attention! Real market demand may be underestimated, leading to a lack of complete understanding or manifestation of its market supply and demand structure.
Price Discovery Phase: Simply put, price discovery is finding the point where supply and demand converge. "Price discovery" is the process in the market mechanism of revealing asset prices through trading activities. Entering the price discovery phase means that the asset may break through historical highs and seek new valuation balance. For BNB, this means it may break previous price records and establish new price levels.
In addition, looking back at BNB's performance in the previous bull market, it was an early leader. Although historical events may not be exactly the same, they usually exhibit similar patterns. Historical data is also a key factor!
3. Can BNB Outperform Bitcoin's Current Cycle Increase?
Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has risen by over 334%, while Ethereum and BNB have risen by approximately 223% and 189% respectively. However, since December of last year, BNB's increase has already surpassed that of BTC and ETH. Now that Bitcoin has halved, can BNB maintain its current advantage? Looking back at previous trends, Bitcoin usually leads the way with a significant increase in the early stages of a bull market. In the middle to later stages, funds start to flow from Bitcoin to various other altcoins, causing Bitcoin's market share to decline. Look at these two charts:
If this bull market is similar, BNB may have a larger increase. BTC's total market share can be directly searched in our index.
4. Key Factors for Bullish Market Sentiment on BNB:
① Representative value of the platform
BNB is the unique token of the Binance platform, holding a unique position in the cryptocurrency market. Unlike other platforms that may issue multiple tokens due to poor performance of their own tokens, BNB has always been the sole token of the Binance platform. This consistency and uniqueness have added stability to its value.
② Burning mechanism
BNB has a very strong burning mechanism, helping to reduce the supply of BNB in the market, increasing its scarcity, and thus maintaining or increasing the market value of BNB.
③ Increase in demand and applications for BNB
BNB Chain uses BNB as fuel and the native token, meaning any project based on the BNB Chain needs to consume BNB, naturally increasing the demand for BNB. The addition of more projects and applications will further intensify this demand, driving up the price. In addition, the current global economic uncertainty and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will also affect the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, which is worth paying close attention to.
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