- [Review] -

Yesterday's analysis was relatively inaccurate. It did break through 69300-69600, but the highest only reached 70288, and did not reach 70500 and above. In addition, yesterday's rally was not large enough. It is still in a state of oscillation. By the way, yesterday's support was 68200-68400, I wrote it wrong, I reflect on it, I notice.

- [Today's Market Analysis] -

Laojiu Trading Diary: Daily Interpretation 6.4

① Intraday ultra-short-term pressure: 70400-70700

Even if the market breaks through the previous high of 70288 formed last night, personally, I think it is relatively easy to encounter resistance and fall back between 70400-70700. Of course, if it breaks through, it must be accompanied by volume. If it can break through this level, 72000 will naturally not pose much of a threat.

② Intraday ultra-short-term support: 68300-68500

A short-term watershed for long and short positions. If it can hold up in this area, it can probably surge towards the upper pressure level. Once it falls below, be on alert. If it falls below 67700 again, the rebound market will end and turn into a new round of decline.

Summary: A big move is about to come, whether it's up or down, continue to watch the fluctuations in the next two days. The oscillating market is almost coming to an end. The trending market is about to come.

- [Cryptocurrency News] -

Despite the differences between the CFTC and SEC, the FIT21 bill is still a "watershed" for cryptocurrencies.

FIT21 is the first digital asset legislation in U.S. history to pass both houses of Congress. The bill has received strong support from both parties, with 71 Democrats and 208 Republicans voting in favor, a two-to-one advantage.

This also indicates that the political winds in Washington, D.C. may be changing. The cryptocurrency industry is more organized than ever before. "We are now prepared to advocate for sensible policies," said Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association.

The U.S. House Financial Services Committee described the passage of FIT21 in a press release on May 22 as a "watershed moment for the U.S. digital asset ecosystem."

FIT21 not only received greater bipartisan support than its strongest supporters expected, but also one-third of House Democrats, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, supported it.

However, Zach Zweihorn, a partner at Davis Polk, said that this almost coincided with the "change in attitude towards Ethereum" by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The agency approved the trading of Ethereum spot market exchange-traded funds on May 23, which is a significant shift in itself.

Equally important, the vote on the bill in Congress on May 16 overturned "Employee Accounting Bulletin 121," which "received 60 votes in the Senate, including votes from well-known Democrats such as Chuck Schumer," added Zweihorn. This makes it easier for regulated financial institutions and companies to act as custodians of digital assets.

However, a potential friction point of FIT21 is its "dual-agency" regulatory system. Digital assets will be regulated by either the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), depending on the decentralization of their underlying network or project.

"Having two regulatory agencies (SEC and CFTC) may confuse market participants. We hope to see the Senate further explore this issue when drafting its own legislation," said Smith.

Some believe that the dual-agency structure has its advantages, but it will only further limit the SEC's suppression of cryptocurrency and blockchain innovation. FIT21 should help weaken the SEC's partial power in the cryptocurrency field. Currently, under Chairman Gary Gensler's leadership, the SEC has too much control, and its decisions hinder blockchain innovation in the United States. This legislative framework takes the first step in indicating that there should be a restrictive principle to limit the SEC's jurisdiction, which is clearer than Chairman Gensler's unlimited and arbitrary approach.

What are the chances of FIT21 or some form of it being signed into law in 2024 (the U.S. election year)?

Although it cannot be said forever, considering the limited time left in the legislative schedule during an election year, if FIT21 can be passed in the Senate this year, it will be a huge push. The likelihood of the bill passing is high. From opinion polls, the Democratic Party is behind the Republican Party in many key battleground states. In order to win the support of independent voters, the Democratic Party is beginning to shift its stance and take a more supportive approach to cryptocurrencies.

So, are you starting to look forward to it?

Personal opinion, for reference only

Official account↓↓↓

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