Recently, the news of the well-known media "Blue Fox Note" planning to close its Knowledge Planet has been widely circulated online.

In the view of the Blue Fox Note team, the team's value analysis based on fundamentals grasped the major trends in the first two cycles, bringing a lot of thinking to the vast number of users. However, in this cycle, the previous value analysis method seems to be less effective, so the team decided to close its operation on the Knowledge Planet.

In the comments on this news, many messages expressed not only regret but also helplessness and pessimism towards "value analysis," and even commented, "Instead of investing in 'value coins,' it's better to go all in on 'MEME coins.'"

"Blue Fox Note" is one of the media outlets in the industry that I highly respect. Many of its articles during the last DeFi boom provided me with valuable inspiration and thinking, and it is a serious and profound media outlet. What's even more admirable is that in such a difficult environment in China, "Blue Fox Note" has been continuously producing valuable articles.

So, I also feel very regretful about its decision to close this communication channel.

However, I do not agree with the pessimistic sentiment about "value analysis" expressed in the comments section.

In the past two years of the market, we can clearly see two very special phenomena in the crypto ecosystem:

First, a large number of tokens have a high total circulation market value before they have truly played a role and developed an ecosystem. Some users have compared the difference in token valuation between this round of the market and the previous round: in the previous market, many value coins had a total circulation market value of only tens of thousands of dollars when they were just launched, while in this round, many tokens reached a total circulation market value of hundreds of millions of dollars as soon as they were launched. This greatly overdrew their future upward potential, leading to a lack of upward momentum even when the market was favorable.

Many "value coins" are like this.

The second is the successive rise of MEME coins in the market.

In this round of trend, the prosperity of MEME coins has surpassed the past, blossoming across various chains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BASE…

These MEME coins not only have amazing price increases but also cover players in various ecosystems, unlike in the past when only players in the Ethereum ecosystem and the Dogecoin ecosystem had the opportunity to grab a limited number of MEME coins.

In this situation, it seems that as long as you seize any MEME coin trend, retail investors can reap substantial returns. And participating in MEME coins not only has no technical barriers but also will not be "calculated" by institutional investors, which is much more cost-effective than participating in those so-called "value coins."

There are many reasons for these phenomena, and in my opinion, an important reason is that Ethereum, which monopolizes the application scenarios in the crypto ecosystem, has not produced innovative applications and disruptive scenarios that have become popular in the past two years.

This has led to funds constantly seeking MEME coins with emotional value and the ability to quickly attract users, making MEME coins the object of pursuit.

I will look at these phenomena with a longer-term perspective. Because I always believe that only by taking a long-term view can we filter out the short-term noise and grasp the fundamental vitality and potential of the crypto ecosystem.

From a long-term perspective, to promote the growth of the crypto ecosystem and drive the appreciation of crypto assets, there must be genuine ecosystem applications. Only applications can solve the problems in the crypto ecosystem and provide continuous value to users.

The vast majority of MEME coins provide emotional value, but emotions change over time, and few MEME coins can provide continuous value for users' changing emotions. Therefore, the vast majority of MEME coins will eventually disappear, and the very few that can survive are either irreplaceable in history or have evolved into value coins with practical value—this is a return to value and fundamentals.

So I believe that the prices and values of most of the seemingly lively MEME coins are difficult to sustain in the long term. We cannot assume that the vast majority of them have sustained and stable value just because they are currently lively.

And many of the seemingly overvalued value coins currently lack the empowerment and transformation of value, some have had their prices artificially inflated, but their intrinsic value still exists, and many projects have good intrinsic value and can develop steadily and continuously. I believe that once there is a suitable opportunity in the future, they will eventually explode.

As for the stories of "XXX getting rich with MEME," I suggest being cautious.

I don't believe that most people can get rich and truly hold onto that wealth by trading MEME coins. Because it is difficult for ordinary investors to grasp the appropriate buying and selling points from the large fluctuations of MEME coins, and even if they are lucky enough to seize such opportunities, few will reinvest heavily in MEME coins—reinvesting heavily in such coins is no different from gambling.

So let's treat MEME coins as a game, participate with an entertainment and playful attitude, and if we can get a small fortune that makes us happy, that's great.

In the end, what will give us the confidence to move forward with a hundredfold is still value coins, especially the major holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which will steadily, continuously, and lastingly upgrade our wealth.

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