I originally wanted to wait for the data from the University of Michigan to come out before looking at it together, because last month when the University of Michigan's one-year inflation data came out, the market's feedback was not good. Let's look at it later.

From the PCE data released today, it is indeed not a good thing. Both the core PCE, which the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, and the monthly rate of PCE are higher than expected and equal to the previous value. This is not a good signal for the risk market. If inflation does not decrease significantly, it means that the Federal Reserve will not choose to cut interest rates temporarily, assuming that the United States does not experience a major economic crisis.

From the current market perspective, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before September is almost nonexistent. The most optimistic view in the market is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2024 according to the March dot plot.

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