《BTC Halving, the Mid-term Node of Bull Market》 Full Content Video: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1PD421H73B?t=3.9
https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/693683513
❀Happy Halving! Yesterday morning, BTC completed its fourth halving in 15 years. However, the current BTC has gradually transformed from the "retail sentiment bull" of the past to the "institutional artificial bull." If the bull market is divided into early, mid, and late stages, the halving is the mid-term node.
❀Compared with past halvings, the market dynamics of BTC have matured significantly, and the direct impact of new BTC issuance on market prices may be reduced. This change is mainly driven by the increase in institutional demand and the widespread adoption of Bitcoin ETFs.
❀In the future, ETFs will be the main participants in the market, and their activities may overshadow the historical impact of halving. The inflow and outflow of ETFs have already had a significant impact on the market, and BTC has gradually shifted from being a "safe-haven asset" in the past to not so much of a "safe haven." Its susceptibility to external factors is increasing, and in the future, the sharp rises and falls may not be so "sharp" anymore.
❀Historically, halving has led to a significant rebound in the market by reducing the supply of new bitcoins, potentially driving up prices due to increased demand. However, this time, due to the significant participation of institutions in ETFs and the significant changes in the activities of long-term investors and "smart money" entities, the dynamics have become even more complex.
❀As traders, we need to pay more attention to the impact of ETF inflows and outflows on the candlestick structure to judge the trend in the future. Will history repeat itself? It's now less certain. Since January 11, a new historical record has been created, meaning that the historical pattern of reaching a new high after the halving has been broken, as this time a new high was reached 43 days before the halving.
❀ "Past performance is not indicative of future results," but as a significant event for BTC, the halving may be the mid-term node of the bull market. Now, based on the limited historical samples, Lao Wang is speculating on the future market trend, it needs to be emphasized that this is just a "speculation." Although judgment of the future situation cannot be a strong basis, it can at least give us some insight and prepare us mentally in advance.
㈠The previous three times, a new high was only reached after the halving, with 270 and 218 days taken to officially break the previous high for the second and third times, respectively. However, this time, a new high was reached 43 days before the halving. Will there be a pullback? Will it linger near the previous high for a long time? We need to be prepared mentally. Additionally, based on the situation in the previous two bull markets, after BTC stabilizes at the previous high, some altcoins will lead a frenzy of rises, and 1-4 months later, these altcoins will reach their peak and then decline.
㈡Regarding the 54 days after the halving. (Due to incomplete data, only the second and third times are considered) ❶ On the day of the second halving, it took 36 days to reach a new low, with a decline of -13.35%. ❷ On the day of the third halving, it took 13 days to reach a new low, with a decline of -7.76%. ❸ In other words, after the previous two halvings, there were instances of reaching new lows. If history repeats itself, the first support level below is 56200, and the second support level is 52800. ❹ We also observed an interesting phenomenon: after the second and third halvings, a sustained uptrend began from the 54th day and did not return.
㈢Before reaching the peak of the bull market after the halving, there will be multiple sharp declines and washouts. (Due to incomplete data, only the second and third times are considered) ❶ Before reaching the peak of the bull market after the second halving, there were more than 8 instances of washouts exceeding 20%, with an average decline of -32.8%. ❷ Before reaching the peak of the bull market after the third halving, there were 5 instances of washouts exceeding 20%, with an average decline of -31.51%. ❸ For knowledgeable traders, these sharp declines are opportunities, but for newbies, these sharp declines are nightmares. From my observation, many newbies leave the market in frustration after experiencing such sharp declines 2-4 times, resulting in the loss of their initial investment.
㈣Regarding the time to reach the peak of the bull market after the halving. ❶ It took 371 days to reach the peak after the first halving. ❷ It took 525 days to reach the peak after the second halving, with a 2961.47% increase. ❸ It took 547 days to reach the peak after the third halving, with a 682.6% increase. ❹ The average time to reach the peak after the previous three halvings was 481 days. In other words, if history repeats itself, traders should be prepared to take profits after July 2025.
㈤Based on the diminishing increase in value after the previous three halvings, if history repeats itself, the increase in value after this halving may only be around 160%.
In summary: With only 15 years of history, BTC has too few samples. "Past performance is not indicative of future results." In the future, ETFs will be the main participants in the market, and their inflows and outflows will have a significant impact on the market. Their activities will be more influenced by external factors, making the future trend more uncertain. However, one thing that can be certain is that volatility may decrease.
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