Hello everyone, the recent market has seen a pullback, and the altcoins have plummeted. Many voices in the market are suggesting that the bull market has ended and the bear market is imminent. Will altcoins continue to plummet?
Answer: I believe the bull market has not ended.
Historical cycle trend Looking at the historical trend, two months before the Bitcoin halving, the price averaged a 32% increase, followed by a retracement. We have been paying attention to the Spring Festival market from 2020 to 2024. We were confident during the red envelope market, and this year is no exception. After breaking through 49,000, it quickly rose to around 70,000, and altcoins saw several-fold growth.
The first halving in 2012 was on November 28, and it peaked at 1,163 in December 2013. The second halving in 2016 was on July 10, and it peaked at 19,666 in December 2017. The third halving in 2020 was on May 12, and it peaked at 69,000 in November 2021. The fourth halving will be on April 20, 2024, and it is estimated to peak at $150,000 between October and December 2025 (personal speculation).
Similar retracement magnitude in each bear market cycle
First bull market, highest $32, retracement 94% Second bull market, highest in 2013 $1,163, retracement 87% Third bull market, highest in 2017 $19,892, retracement 84% Fourth bull market, highest in 2022 $69,000, retracement 78%
Historically, BTC's bear market decline has been between 72% and 87%, with a 78% decline to $15,400 in the 2022 bear market. Taking a middle range of 75-80%, the bear market bottom is within this range. The bear market lasts for about a year, and the cryptocurrency and other investment markets have a significant characteristic of a long bull market and a short bear market.
Bull and bear market cycle time From the lowest point of $152.4 in January 2015 to the highest point of $19,892 in December 2017, it took 1,068 days. From the lowest point of $3,122 in December 2018 to the highest point of $69,000 in November 2021, it took 1,061 days. If the lowest point of $15,400 in November 2022 is pushed back by 1,065 days, it will be in November-December 2025.
Halving cycle The halving cycle is basically in the middle of the bull and bear market cycle.
From 2015 to 2017, 543 days before the halving, and 527 days after the halving. From 2018 to 2021, 514 days before the halving, and 547 days after the halving. From 2022 to 2025, 515 days before the halving, and the days after the halving are currently unknown.
I have also shared the simplest way to make money in the cryptocurrency market before:
- Buy Bitcoin 500 days before the halving.
- Hold and do nothing.
- Sell after 500 days of the halving.
- Repeat.
Bitcoin ETF Speaking of Bitcoin ETF, it will definitely be associated with gold ETF. If interested, you can read my previous article "Impact of Spot ETF: A Comparison of the Future of Gold ETF and Bitcoin ETF." We said at the time that it might be replaying the historical trend of gold in 2003, and I believe it will be more stimulating with greater volatility.
What I want to say is that since the spot ETF was approved on January 11, institutions such as BlackRock have an average cost of $55,000 for holding Bitcoin, and each institution's cost is definitely different. Despite the continuous selling by Grayscale for three months, there is still an inflow of $12.5 billion. These institutions are not here for short-term gains; they are planning for the medium to long term. This round of bull market is driven by institutions, and retail investors have little say, and this trend will only become more pronounced in the future.
The ETF in Hong Kong will be launched this week, and Bitcoin ETFs will be launched in various parts of the world one after another, possibly in South Korea and other places. The landing of Bitcoin ETFs around the world will be similar to the subsequent proliferation of gold ETFs after the first gold ETF in Australia.
Regional conflicts Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022-2023, both gold and Bitcoin, as safe-haven assets, have been on the rise. Gold reached a historical high of $2,430, and physical gold reached $560 per gram. Bitcoin reached a historical high of $73,777 and retraced to around $66,000. In times of chaos, gold shines, and Bitcoin shines in prosperous times. Regional conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Iran-Israel conflict are becoming more frequent, giving a sense of an impending third world war.
Short-term bearish for Bitcoin, long-term bullish. Similar to the black swan events such as the COVID-19 pandemic before the bull market in 2020, the current regional conflicts are quite obvious…
Actual market situation The monthly chart has seen 7 consecutive positive candles, indicating continued strength. The Fibonacci retracement level of 0.786 ($57,577) has not been breached.
Looking at the weekly candlestick pattern, there are signs of overextension, such as doji, hammer, and T-shaped lines. On the daily chart, the second test has stabilized, and the price has rebounded to $66,800, showing good rebound strength. If the price falls below the previous converging triangle and fails to rebound within the triangle, it will continue to fall to $53,000-$55,000. If it consolidates at this level on the daily chart, the risk of breaking below $60,600 is relatively high.
Some people have mentioned a similar trend to the one before May 19, 2020. I do not rule it out, as it has been oscillating at high levels. In my opinion, for altcoins to recover, Bitcoin must reach a new high. In the past few days, Bitcoin has not dropped much, but altcoins have plummeted. On a smaller scale, it depends on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the level above $68,200 to resolve the temporary one-way decline.
If you like my views, please like, comment, and share. Let's navigate the bull and bear markets together!!!
The article is time-sensitive and is for reference only, with real-time updates.
Focus on candlestick technical analysis, win-win global investment opportunities. Public account: Trading Master Fusu
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