Recently, the trend of Bitcoin has been extremely abnormal, with frequent small to large fluctuations, lacking any apparent pattern or structure. This is extremely unfriendly for short-term trading, and I believe most people share the same feeling.

There are many complex reasons for the frequent ups and downs in the coin circle. The core factor is the huge disagreement between the long and short sides around 70,000 points, leading to a fierce struggle. Currently, neither the bulls nor the bears have an absolute advantage over the other. However, as time passes and chips continue to change hands, the long and short sides will eventually determine the outcome and break out of this oscillating range.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the current trend is still an upward trend. This trend has formed the first pen center, combined with the MACD approaching the zero axis and the shortening of the red columns. This suggests that it is likely to challenge new highs again.

Taking a look at the 30-minute chart, due to the frequent fluctuations and small to large movements, the trend at the 30-minute level looks extremely unattractive. The previous surge in trading volume rose to around 73,000, but was pushed back by the bears, and the retracement was relatively deep. However, it still did not return to the lower pen center to form a third buy signal.

Around 8:30 last night, just after Bitcoin fell below 68,000 points, some people in the community were once again emotionally driven to short the market. I promptly reminded the community not to chase the rise and kill the fall, because within the 30-minute downtrend segment, there was a complete two-pen center downtrend divergence buy signal (as shown in the red part of the picture). When a buy signal appears, one should not go short, as doing so would be counterproductive.

Subsequently, as expected, after Bitcoin fell below 68,000 and set up a bear trap, it launched a substantial rebound, reaching above 71,000 in the early morning.

This account has repeatedly emphasized in previous articles or live broadcasts: do not chase the rise and kill the fall. Chasing the rise and killing the fall is absolutely foolish behavior and will ultimately lead to being harvested by the market! Trading requires going against human nature. Remember, when the market is falling, one should only consider whether to buy, and only consider selling when the market is rising. If this mindset cannot be completely reversed, one can clearly conclude: chasing the rise and killing the fall to make money in the trading market is wishful thinking!!!

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