The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is often for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui Shuobi, focusing on the analysis of cryptocurrency market trends, striving to deliver the most valuable market information to the majority of coin friends. Welcome the attention and likes of the majority of coin friends, and refuse any market smokescreens!

In April, the spring breeze is intoxicating, and the rain washes everything clean. The continuous decline in the market has indeed caused many spot users to become restless. For all the fans, today Lao Cui will give everyone a unified explanation. In the past two days, Lao Cui's replies have been very overwhelming, waking up every day to a never-ending stream of messages. For those who have not received a reply, please be patient, Lao Cui will reply to everyone. The changes in the market are definitely traceable, and the main contradiction in the recent period is still on the US side. The recent Nasdaq index has also been plummeting wildly, mainly due to the issue of the Fed's interest rate cuts, which has caused serious internal divisions. In this division, Powell actually stood on the dovish side, and the market believes that Powell has repeatedly sent out dovish signals through his statements.

However, Bullard is also a very important figure in the Fed, and his attitude tends to be conservative. The divergence between these two has led to uncertainty about the future in the market, and even raised doubts about the interest rate cut policy. The main focus of the contradiction between the two lies in the starting point of the interest rate cut and the view on the PCE data. The time difference between the two divergences is as long as six months, which means that their expectations for interest rate cuts are nearly six months apart. If Bullard's idea is implemented, it will be impossible to achieve actual interest rate cuts for the entire year of 2024. Powell believes that under optimistic circumstances, interest rate cuts will begin in June this year. The attitudes of the two have created great uncertainty in the financial market and have also caused many giants to have a shaky mindset.

Don't think that six months is very easy for us, but for the giants, it is actually very painful. Currently, it is still in the late stage of the US interest rate hike. According to the interest rates in the US, the amount they have to repay annually is very large, and the pressure is also very high. And within the entire timetable of the past two years of interest rate hikes, a large amount of funds has flowed into the market. For the entire US financial circle, the pressure is very huge, having to repay a large amount of interest every day. A six-month period is enough to overwhelm a large amount of giant capital. The US financial market is different from ours. We still have a large amount of inflow and outflow of foreign exchange cash, which can offset the impact of inflation. We are the world's largest exporter of industrial goods. The US itself operates in the capital market, and as long as they still have controllable space, they will not target Japan. They will not raise their own government bond yields, as such high yields have made it clear to investors that it is difficult to withdraw their principal from the market.

Looking at the recent decisions of the US, it is clear that they have been dragged into one trap after another, and the fundamental problems of capitalism cannot be fundamentally treated. It is actually very difficult to extend the time for interest rate cuts by six months. More news reveals that it is likely to give everyone a financial smokescreen. Making capital hesitate to enter other markets. Especially after the US released the interest rate cut strategy, it was found that their cash flow did not flow into their own market, but mostly into the Eastern market. There must be a sense of imbalance in their hearts, but not cutting interest rates has already caused huge debt problems for them, and it can be said that they have put themselves in a dilemma, making it really difficult for them to make decisions.

However, for us, looking at the essence of the matter aside from the matter itself. The hesitation of the US is the timing of the interest rate cut, and the most important thing is that there is no questioning of the decision to cut interest rates. Looking at our coin circle, as with the decision in the general direction, it proves that our trend is still bullish, it's just a matter of time. From a medium-term perspective, our judgment is still correct. As long as the three criteria we have confirmed have not been met (interest rate cuts leading to a decline in exchange rates, the listing of Ethereum, and the halving of Bitcoin), as long as these three have not been met, we will be in a period of fluctuation, and there will be no historical breakthroughs or deep pullbacks. Our analysis is still correct, and we must be firm in our own ideas.

The recent confusion for everyone is still on the medium-term issue. Many friends saw Bitcoin break through 70,000 and thought the bull market was back. Once there is a deep pullback of several thousand points, they start to worry about the trend of the coin circle again. It's still about controlling the trend, especially the recent depth, which is gradually deepening. Coupled with having read Lao Cui's previous articles, when the exchange rate rises, it is believed that the coin circle will once again decline. By observing the exchange rate, you can understand the direction of the long and short positions. The highest position of USDT came to around 7.5 when it was at the lowest point of the coin circle's pullback. The exchange rate also came to around 7.1-7.2 in the previous period, causing a part of the coin circle to rise, and then the medium-term once again fell back to around 7.38, falling into a pullback phase again. The situation of the medium-term contract can be operated in comparison with the exchange rate of USDT, and understanding the exchange rate basically determines the trend of the medium-term situation.

For spot users, there will definitely be different degrees of losses in the short-term pullback, because none of the three elements of the rise have been met. But the depth of the pullback is actually an opportunity for everyone to enter the market, especially since the US's hesitation is not about the decision to cut interest rates but the timeline for implementation, which also proves that interest rate cuts in the future are inevitable. Once the interest rate cut is achieved, a large amount of funds will flow into the coin circle, and the rise is only a matter of time. And the positive news for the coin circle still exists in the achievement of the latter two, even if the interest rate cut is delayed, with the listing of Ethereum and the upcoming halving of Bitcoin, the two together will not directly push the coin circle into a bear market. The pullback is an opportunity for everyone to enter the market, and the timeline for spot trading must be extended to look at the long-term prospects, not focusing on short-term gains and losses. Short-term profit and loss should be the concern of contract users.

Lao Cui's message: Investment is like playing chess, a master can see five steps, seven steps, or even a dozen steps ahead, while a low-level player can only see two or three steps. The master looks at the overall situation, plans for the general trend, does not focus on every single move, and aims to win the game in the end, while the low-level player fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only fighting for short-term gains, and frequently ends up in trouble.

Original article from WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Shuobi. If there is any infringement, please contact the author to delete.

This material is for learning and reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Buying and selling based on this material is at your own risk!

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