News
On March 25th, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, gave some advice to Bitcoin investors at the Bitcoin Investor Day conference last Friday. Scaramucci stated that when holding Bitcoin, "you should act as if you were dead and not sell Bitcoin. Don't do anything to it."
On March 25th, CME FedWatch data showed that the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in May is 84.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.7%.
In addition, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates until June is 26.0%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 63.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 10.9%.
On March 25th, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, released a video stating that the $68,330 mark is crucial for Bitcoin, as it was the starting point for the last time Bitcoin set a new price high.
Markus Thielen stated that last week, due to three consecutive days of net outflows from ETFs, the price of Bitcoin fell. However, there was a rebound in the market over the weekend, so if Bitcoin can stabilize at $68,330, a technical head and shoulders bottom pattern will form, and Bitcoin will directly surge towards the next historical high target of $83,000, or even break through the $100,000 mark.
Market Review
In the previous article, it was mentioned that the market might further test the neckline, but there was no direct rebound above the short-term resistance level, around 65,200. The article also mentioned that if there is a breakthrough, it would mean the end of the short-term decline. In the early trading session today, the market once hit near 67,666 and broke through the large-scale convergent triangle oscillation. Does this mean the adjustment has ended?
Market Analysis
Macro Analysis: After a long period of net inflows, BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows for 5 consecutive days since March 18th. Bitcoin ETF needs to obtain new funds to initiate a new round of rise, which takes time. Another important news in the industry is that the U.S. SEC has issued a subpoena to the Ethereum Foundation. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigation into the Ethereum Foundation began in September 2022. Last week's news showed that the Ethereum Foundation had received a subpoena from the SEC in the past few weeks. Some analysts believe that the SEC is launching an aggressive legal action to classify Ethereum as a security. If this is true, it is not good news for Ethereum, and the Ethereum spot ETF may face regulatory challenges. Another easily overlooked news is that BlackRock has officially launched its tokenized asset fund on the Ethereum network. The fund is represented by the BUIDL token of the base blockchain, fully supported by cash, U.S. Treasury bonds, and repurchase agreements, and will pay daily returns to token holders through the blockchain. This is an important step for traditional finance to enter the blockchain, which is important for Ethereum and the crypto market. At the same time, the Fed's interest rate decision was positive. Powell believes that the inflation data for January and February did not change the trend. And he confirmed that the reduction of the balance sheet will happen very soon. As a result, the U.S. stock market rose that day, and BTC also rose in sync. As for the much-discussed interest rate hike in Japan, I have to admit that its impact has been overestimated. In fact, due to the extremely small magnitude of the rate hike, and the cautious efforts of the Bank of Japan to achieve stable inflation targets, it will not have a significant impact in the short term.
Through the six-hour market analysis, it can be seen that the large-scale convergent triangle has broken through in the early trading session and is currently in a small-scale adjustment phase after the breakthrough. At the same time, the outflow of ETFs is weakening, which is undoubtedly good news. Once the outflow of ETFs decreases, it will completely reverse. From a technical perspective, the MACD has been in a low position for a long time, showing signs of turning upward. Last week, the Fed turned dovish, and the big cake rebounded. Although there was a rebound after the fall, the downward momentum decreased and did not directly break the neckline. If it doesn't fall, it will rise, so it is expected that the adjustment will end in the short term. The focus is on the breakthrough at 69,500-69,000. Once it stabilizes, it means that the market is officially strengthening, and then the music plays on. As for the operation, it is recommended to go long on the pullback, with support below at around 66,500-66,800 and 64,500. The resistance above is at 69,000-69,500. Once it breaks through, look at 71,500-72,000 and subsequent new highs. Specific operations are at your own discretion. Details will be explained in the actual trading.
Technology is the method, and the trend is the king. The dominant force in the currency circle will guide you to soar in the sea of coins.
Be cautious when entering the market, as there are risks involved.
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