About the ETH Cancun Upgrade:
Another thing worth looking forward to for Ethereum this year is the Cancun upgrade. On January 17th of this year, Ethereum conducted the Cancun upgrade on the Goerli test network. However, neither the price of ETH itself nor the prices of L2's OP and ARB saw a significant increase due to this information. Instead, they continued to decline along with the price of BTC.
It's quite magical that the Cancun upgrade, which is supposed to be beneficial to the L2 ecosystem, has resulted in poorer performance for the ecosystems of ARB and OP.
Currently, it seems highly likely that the Cancun upgrade will be delayed, and it's very possible that the next test network will fail. It might be postponed until the launch of ETH's ETF, which would be a double positive, but this is only a possibility.
Considering that the last test network was on the 17th, with a two-week interval between test networks and a one-month interval between main networks, the main network should have been launched on the 17th of March. If it continues to be delayed, it will be around the middle of the year.
At present, the timing of the Cancun upgrade has not been officially determined, and given Ethereum's consistent style, the likelihood of a delay is high.
In summary, there is positive news on the surface, but it has not been truly realized and still requires further development. In the short term, ETH selling pressure is strong, and the retracement may continue to exceed that of BTC. The ETH/BTC exchange rate may further decline.
Macro-level games between major institutions are difficult for us to accurately calculate, but the halving of Bitcoin, discussions about the Fed's easing, and the continuous growth of massive funds brought by ETFs all indicate that the latter half of the year will be a dream that is currently out of reach.
Of course, it's not a call for everyone to go all-in when it's time to buy low. For me, the 38,000-point Bitcoin and the 35,000-point Bitcoin have a 3,000-point difference, but in terms of long-term trends, this difference is truly insignificant. Moreover, whether it can go down is still uncertain.
This wave may be the last chance for those of us who haven't boarded the train. It's also a warning for our friends who are already on the train. Regardless of the FOMO emotions, we must manage our positions well. Don't be greedy when it's time to run in the short term, and don't hesitate to buy in the long term. Roller coasters come one after another, and chips should also be added one round at a time.
The Bitcoin spot ETF has been approved, and next, there will be the Bitcoin halving and the macro-level expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. After multiple factors are combined, an unprecedented bull market will form. However, a bull market is not smooth sailing; it will definitely form a global consensus after being baptized by wind and rain.
About the Importance of the First Half of the Year and the Trend of the Second Half of the Year!
In the first half of this year, which can also be understood as before the halving, the market has been mainly influenced by certain institutions or policy factors, and has been in a suppressed state. Currently, we see continuous selling by Grayscale, and there may be more BTC shares from MTGOX compensation in the future, which could affect the short-term market trend. In addition, we cannot rule out the possibility of the United States implementing stricter regulatory policies in the first half of the year. Therefore, overall, let's not talk about January, which is about to pass, and the next February may still be mainly about adjustments. Then, the low point in February will be a good buying opportunity. Everyone must remember that before the Bitcoin halving is the time to buy, not to cut losses and exit.
The Bitcoin halving in 2024 is expected to be around April 5th, so there will be speculation about the halving in March, but don't get too carried away because of institutional suppression. The halving speculation will not be too FOMO.
After the halving in April, the market will not ignite instantly; it will gradually be digested and accepted by the market. With the end of institutional suppression, the market will gradually warm up after the halving. Historically, the market does not immediately turn bullish after the halving.
Although the overall market will not go crazy, there are still many opportunities to participate in Bitcoin-related ecosystems, and the development of the ecosystem will not be affected by the market's weakness. This is very certain, so market confidence will continue, and it will not end due to the market's adjustment. As retail investors, we still need to be good at exploring opportunities in related ecosystems and actively participate. Don't lose confidence because of the market's weakness.
In summary, there will not be a significant market trend before the halving, but there are many opportunities in related ecosystem projects. We should not lose confidence due to the market's adjustment and should still actively participate. After the halving, in Q3 and Q4, the market will officially enter an explosive upward trend, so there is no need to be afraid. This year's first half is the best time to position ourselves!
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