The cycle is approaching, as long as we get through this period of interest rate hikes and cuts in the first half of the year, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, the market will naturally rise. If Bitcoin cannot see a price starting with the number 2, do not consider buying BTC, but rather prioritize Ethereum and high-quality altcoins!

On the one hand, the changes between interest rate hikes and cuts have an absolutely unexpected impact on the financial markets.

For example, who would have expected that the expectation of a rate cut combined with the narrative of the inscription plus ETF could push the price of Bitcoin from 24,000 to 48,000 over three consecutive months?

Just managing expectations alone can achieve this level, which is indeed impressive. But how long can this management of expectations support the market?

Regardless of whether Grayscale sells off at this level, there will be a certain degree of shaking out before the official start of the bull market. The difference is that with the participation of institutions, the amplitude has expanded in the short term, but the existing positive factors can maximize the necessary chip rotation and accelerate the arrival of the market.

After the halving of Bitcoin, the cost of mining will soar to above $38,000, which means that the possibility of effectively breaking through this defensive position is not high. This is also one of the reasons why the vast majority of technical analysis confirms that the bottom of the next bull market is at this level (excluding the impact of black swans).

There is a force that is preventing Bitcoin from rising too fast, so it has been suppressed all along. However, this kind of suppression may be effective in the short term, but in the long run, it will have no effect at all. The last opportunity to get on board should focus on those tracks. I think this is what everyone should care about, rather than worrying about where Bitcoin will fall to, because no one knows where it will fall, but we all know that the next two years will undoubtedly be a bull market. Therefore, it is most correct to seek potential opportunities behind deterministic events.

When the market falls, that is the real opportunity, so if you follow the layout of the two-year bull market, you should think about the Bitcoin ecosystem next. The Bitcoin ecosystem has the main narrative of Ordinals, with ORDI as the main focus, as well as sats and STX! These are the directions we need to pay attention to. However, the Bitcoin ecosystem is relatively new, so there are not many opportunities for long-term lurking, which requires long-term learning and attention to find more opportunities.

In addition to the Bitcoin ecosystem, there are tracks such as POW, DEPIN, RWA, and DESCI, which were already hyped at the end of last year. I believe that after the market adjustment ends, they will still be the main narrative forces in the market and community. So everyone should look for leaders in the tracks, and after finding the leader, you can follow to find the second and third leaders.

There is also a track, the game track. There are many games in this track, but it is very difficult to successfully invest in a game, so you can focus on game public chains, game platforms, and so on. For example, ron, imx, magic, gafi, and so on. Of course, valuation is also very important. Since it is a layout, do not FOMO, try to buy in at the lowest price.

Everyone thought that after the ETF was approved, there would be a big rise, but how could the institutions let you make money so easily? So they must suppress the price first, and then when you are desperate, they will push up the market.

However, the bullish trend will not end, so do not worry. Now is actually the best time to lay out. The idea of buying more as it falls is correct.

What is the future trend? Is there still hope for a rebound?

If GBTC investors continue to take profits, the price of Bitcoin may face further downward pressure in the coming weeks, and the total outflow value of GBTC is expected to be about $3 billion.

The decline in the price of Bitcoin may continue until the release of the quarterly refinancing announcement by the US Department of the Treasury on January 31. FTX has cleared its holdings of GBTC shares, and given that the institution has been the main force in selling off GBTC so far, it is expected that the selling pressure in the market may ease for a period of time.

The approval of the ETF is indeed a positive factor, but the buying effect it brings will not appear instantly, but will need time to accumulate gradually.

In the case of GBTC's disruption, we still see that the ETF market as a whole is showing a net inflow trend. The former will eventually come to an end, while the latter is just beginning. As one wanes, the other waxes, and market sentiment will eventually undergo a change.

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